Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 22, 2020

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DAY 327 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/23/2020 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.24°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.20°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.292 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 527 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.79 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.09 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.88 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 234 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.12 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 41 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 3 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 67.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-23 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2020	327	41	56.24006	40.15994	48.2	0	0	0.79	0.09	0.88	F	F	24.24006	527.24006	234	458.12420256731	0	0.29224006903162	93	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	48.35	48.35	48.35	0	0.0001	0.7901	0.09	0.8801	F	F	16.35	519.35	235	458.65434269338	0	0.082798525152813	93	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-08-22 12:04:31	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.61	50.05	57.33	0	0.0137	0.8037	0.09	0.8937	F	F	32.61	535.61	235	458.65434269338	0	0.63424896486826	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	327	41	59.81	46.28	53.045	0	0.0203	0.8103	0.09	0.9003	F	F	27.81	530.81	235	458.65434269338	0	0.433585135281	93	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	327	41	65.06	45.23	55.145	0	0.0225	0.8125	0.09	0.9025	F	F	33.06	536.06	235	458.65434269338	0	0.6520929463539	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.93	46.19	55.56	0	0.0406	0.1006	0.09	0.1906	F	F	32.93	530.93	234	458.12420256731	0	0.6469704458411	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	65.11	44.28	54.695	0	0.0296	0.4196	0.09	0.5096	F	F	33.11	540.11	234	458.12420256731	0	0.65405583630206	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-21 15:51:46	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.87	44.14	54.505	0	0.0195	0.4095	0.09	0.4995	F	F	32.87	539.87	234	458.12420256731	0	0.64459713790645	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.73	44.53	54.63	0	0.0498	0.4398	0.09	0.5298	F	F	32.73	539.73	234	458.12420256731	0	0.6390377168889	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.54	45.32	54.93	0	0.0553	0.4553	0.09	0.5453	F	F	32.54	541.54	234	458.12420256731	0	0.63144578278299	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.43	45.74	55.085	0	0.0594	0.3694	0.09	0.4594	F	F	32.43	539.43	234	458.12420256731	0	0.62702667312076	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-21 00:04:30	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.26	45.51	54.885	0	0.0459	0.3959	0.09	0.4859	F	F	32.26	530.26	234	458.12420256731	0	0.62016434663365	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	60.46	45.44	52.95	0	0.0376	0.4776	0.09	0.5676	F	F	28.46	541.46	234	458.12420256731	0	0.46091065239189	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	327	41	60.56	45.85	53.205	0	0.0385	0.4285	0.09	0.5185	F	F	28.56	542.56	234	458.12420256731	0	0.46513432695998	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.78	44.17	54.475	0	0.0414	0.6014	0.09	0.6914	F	F	32.78	545.78	234	458.12420256731	0	0.64102666867233	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	63.56	44.52	54.04	0	0.029	0.399	0.09	0.489	F	F	31.56	545.56	234	458.12420256731	0	0.59152961788601	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	327	41	63.92	45.26	54.59	0	0.036	0.516	0.09	0.606	F	F	31.92	544.92	234	458.12420256731	0	0.60632763498323	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	63.7	45.23	54.465	0	0.0371	0.3871	0.09	0.4771	F	F	31.7	534.7	234	458.12420256731	0	0.59730117749466	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	63.36	45.52	54.44	0	0.027	0.597	0.11	0.707	F	F	31.36	548.36	234	458.12420256731	0	0.58325028266135	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	62.92	45.91	54.415	0	0.0296	0.7196	0.11	0.8296	F	F	30.92	546.92	234	458.12420256731	0	0.56491028245111	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	57.94	45.14	51.54	0	0.0235	0.5635	0.11	0.6735	F	F	25.94	541.94	234	458.12420256731	0	0.35714855117717	93	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	57.94	44.69	51.315	0	0.022	0.592	0.1	0.692	F	F	25.94	538.94	234	458.12420256731	0	0.35714855117717	93	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2020-08-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	62.73	44.52	53.625	0	0.0475	0.6675	0.1	0.7675	F	F	30.73	539.73	234	458.12420256731	0	0.55694493103344	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	62.09	44.44	53.265	0	0.0268	0.6668	0.11	0.7768	F	F	30.09	529.09	234	458.12420256731	0	0.52996311669725	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 19:51:53	FORECAST	2020	327	41	62.11	43.49	52.8	0	0.0194	0.7094	0.11	0.8194	F	F	30.11	551.11	234	458.12420256731	0	0.53080904033295	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.8	45.19	54.995	0	0.0095	0.6995	0.1	0.7995	F	F	32.8	550.8	234	458.12420256731	0	0.64182118419318	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	65.39	45.73	55.56	0	0.0096	0.9296	0.1	1.0296	F	F	33.39	558.39	234	458.12420256731	0	0.66497040859881	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 07:51:36	FORECAST	2020	327	41	66.21	46.3	56.255	0	0.0108	0.4408	0.09	0.5308	F	F	34.21	549.21	234	458.12420256731	0	0.69611555906072	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	66.86	46.3	56.58	0	0.0102	0.6402	0.12	0.7602	F	F	34.86	544.86	234	458.12420256731	0	0.71984481031679	93	4	3	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	67.91	46.72	57.315	0	0.0011	0.4311	0.12	0.5511	F	F	35.91	534.91	234	458.12420256731	0	0.75617231054293	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	67.93	46.72	57.325	0	0.0011	0.3611	0.12	0.4811	F	F	35.93	559.93	234	458.12420256731	0	0.75683874970344	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	68.33	46.04	57.185	0	0.0009	0.3909	0.12	0.5109	F	F	36.33	562.33	234	458.12420256731	0	0.76995878925208	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.89	44.3	54.595	0	0.011	0.801	0.12	0.921	F	F	32.89	556.89	234	458.12420256731	0	0.64538886886592	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	64.92	44.29	54.605	0	0.011	1.241	0.11	1.351	F	F	32.92	546.92	234	458.12420256731	0	0.64657528817524	93	3	3	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	327	41	65.01	44.21	54.61	0	0.0108	1.3408	0.11	1.4508	F	F	33.01	551.01	234	458.12420256731	0	0.65012597426235	93	3	3	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	70.5	51.42	60.96	0	0.0133	0.0533	0.14	0.1933	F	F	38.5	559.5	234	458.12420256731	0	0.83386392288479	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 19:51:43	FORECAST	2020	327	41	70.53	51.41	60.97	0	0.0133	0.0533	0.14	0.1933	F	F	38.53	572.53	234	458.12420256731	0	0.83465858632572	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	327	41	70.08	50.94	60.51	0	0.0131	0.0331	0.14	0.1731	F	F	38.08	572.08	234	458.12420256731	0	0.82248096631762	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	66.42	47.39	56.905	0	0.0235	0.1435	0.15	0.2935	F	F	34.42	567.42	234	458.12420256731	0	0.70387955600386	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	67.18	46.75	56.965	0	0.0234	0.1534	0.13	0.2834	F	F	35.18	564.18	234	458.12420256731	0	0.73118796956324	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 03:52:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	67.2	46.73	56.965	0	0.0234	0.1534	0.14	0.2934	F	F	35.2	572.2	234	458.12420256731	0	0.73188919288221	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	68.38	48.75	58.565	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.14	0.1421	F	F	36.38	580.38	234	458.12420256731	0	0.77157052218665	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	68.41	50.24	59.325	0	0.0007	0.0007	0.15	0.1507	F	F	36.41	596.41	234	458.12420256731	0	0.77253451360364	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	70.53	49.44	59.985	0	0.0003	0.0103	0.14	0.1503	F	F	38.53	596.53	234	458.12420256731	0	0.83465858632572	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	327	41	62.1	48.12	55.11	0	0	0.01	0.24	0.25	F	F	30.1	576.1	234	458.12420256731	0	0.53038609565863	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	327	41	49.67	48.11	48.89	0	0	0.01	0.26	0.27	F	F	17.67	559.67	234	458.12420256731	0	0.10640539566909	93	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-15 03:52:05	FORECAST	2020	327	41	49.4	48.94	49.17	0	0	0.12	0.27	0.39	F	F	17.4	566.4	234	458.12420256731	0	0.10122023467018	93	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M