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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 23, 2020

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DAY 328 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/24/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 62.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 50.67°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 56.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.531 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 30 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 524 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.75 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.13 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.88 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 235 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.65 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 42 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 75.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-24 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2020	328	42	62.45006	50.66996	56.56001	0	0.75	0.13	0.88	F	F	30.45006	524.45006	235	458.65434269338	0.53119905612682	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	68.61	51.13	59.87	0.011	0.761	0.13	0.891	F	F	36.61	530.61	236	459.18247210974	0.74686996042703	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.16	48.95	59.055	0.0076	0.7576	0.13	0.8876	F	F	37.16	531.16	236	459.18247210974	0.76332440321062	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	328	42	65.74	50.09	57.915	0.0057	0.7557	0.13	0.8857	F	F	33.74	527.74	236	459.18247210974	0.65226972687264	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.29	48.23	59.26	0.0042	0.7542	0.13	0.8842	F	F	38.29	524.29	235	458.65434269338	0.79521021078324	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.51	48.15	59.33	0.0028	0.7628	0.13	0.8928	F	F	38.51	541.51	235	458.65434269338	0.80110751096483	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.75	47.8	59.275	0.0033	0.7633	0.13	0.8933	F	F	38.75	541.75	235	458.65434269338	0.80742305365051	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 12:04:31	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.43	49.77	60.1	0.0009	0.7609	0.13	0.8909	F	F	38.43	541.43	235	458.65434269338	0.79897495524585	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.66	50.06	60.36	0.0025	0.7725	0.13	0.9025	F	F	38.66	536.66	235	458.65434269338	0.80506919478677	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.4	50.02	60.21	0.0031	0.7731	0.13	0.9031	F	F	38.4	541.4	235	458.65434269338	0.79817173115119	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.46	49.23	59.845	0.0005	0.0605	0.13	0.1905	F	F	38.46	536.46	235	458.65434269338	0.79977626275347	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.01	49.14	59.575	0.0016	0.3816	0.13	0.5116	F	F	38.01	545.01	235	458.65434269338	0.78755635073936	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-21 15:51:47	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.86	49.07	59.465	0.0009	0.3709	0.13	0.5009	F	F	37.86	544.86	235	458.65434269338	0.78338837311684	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.63	48.66	59.145	0.001	0.401	0.13	0.531	F	F	37.63	544.63	235	458.65434269338	0.7769066431803	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.82	49.17	59.495	0.0014	0.4214	0.13	0.5514	F	F	37.82	546.82	235	458.65434269338	0.78226899030506	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.01	49.39	59.7	0.0024	0.3324	0.13	0.4624	F	F	38.01	544.01	235	458.65434269338	0.78755635073936	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-21 00:04:30	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.95	49.76	60.355	0.0009	0.4009	0.09	0.4909	F	F	38.95	535.95	235	458.65434269338	0.81259143243353	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.55	49.35	59.95	0.0012	0.4412	0.13	0.5712	F	F	38.55	546.55	235	458.65434269338	0.8021686666576	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.1	49.61	59.855	0.0013	0.3913	0.13	0.5213	F	F	38.1	548.1	235	458.65434269338	0.79003452757664	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	328	42	63.41	48.22	55.815	0.0011	0.5611	0.13	0.6911	F	F	31.41	544.41	235	458.65434269338	0.56736165330017	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	64.01	48.23	56.12	0.0008	0.3208	0.17	0.4908	F	F	32.01	545.01	235	458.65434269338	0.58970071559516	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.52	49.25	59.885	0.002	0.322	0.29	0.612	F	F	38.52	550.52	235	458.65434269338	0.80137312033329	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.52	46.78	58.15	0.0006	0.2706	0.21	0.4806	F	F	37.52	539.52	235	458.65434269338	0.773768129212	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.51	46.69	58.1	0.0002	0.3902	0.32	0.7102	F	F	37.51	552.51	235	458.65434269338	0.77348158020695	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.07	48.01	58.54	0	0.41	0.42	0.83	F	F	37.07	551.07	235	458.65434269338	0.76067270326941	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.68	47.16	58.42	0.002	0.372	0.3	0.672	F	F	37.68	546.68	235	458.65434269338	0.77832501853229	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.7	47.16	58.43	0.002	0.442	0.25	0.692	F	F	37.7	543.7	235	458.65434269338	0.7788909253184	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	69.27	46.95	58.11	0.002	0.482	0.29	0.772	F	F	37.27	544.27	235	458.65434269338	0.76654333823436	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	66.48	47.62	57.05	0.0021	0.4321	0.35	0.7821	F	F	34.48	530.48	235	458.65434269338	0.67792288871862	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-18 19:51:53	FORECAST	2020	328	42	66.51	47.61	57.06	0.0021	0.5721	0.25	0.8221	F	F	34.51	552.51	235	458.65434269338	0.67894624231008	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	64.63	46.8	55.715	0.0018	0.5718	0.23	0.8018	F	F	32.63	550.63	235	458.65434269338	0.61248175760897	93	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.24	49.07	59.655	0.0002	0.8502	0.18	1.0302	F	F	38.24	563.24	235	458.65434269338	0.79385558293972	93	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 07:51:36	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.27	49.06	59.665	0.0002	0.3702	0.16	0.5302	F	F	38.27	554.27	235	458.65434269338	0.79466899480104	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.71	49.46	60.085	0.0002	0.4702	0.29	0.7602	F	F	38.71	550.71	235	458.65434269338	0.80637904194346	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.84	48.82	59.83	0.0006	0.3006	0.25	0.5506	F	F	38.84	540.84	235	458.65434269338	0.80975949491428	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	70.86	48.81	59.835	0.0006	0.3006	0.18	0.4806	F	F	38.86	565.86	235	458.65434269338	0.8102763345639	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	73.11	49.69	61.4	0.0006	0.3406	0.17	0.5106	F	F	41.11	570.11	235	458.65434269338	0.86285757549877	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	75.64	48.56	62.1	0.0013	0.7613	0.16	0.9213	F	F	43.64	567.64	235	458.65434269338	0.90896850470392	93	5	3	4	3	5	1	180	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	75.66	48.57	62.115	0.0013	1.1513	0.2	1.3513	F	F	43.66	557.66	235	458.65434269338	0.90928050171344	93	5	3	4	4	5	1	240	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	328	42	75.26	48.54	61.9	0.0013	1.2413	0.21	1.4513	F	F	43.26	561.26	235	458.65434269338	0.90288900829582	93	5	3	4	4	5	1	240	DRY	VH
2020-08-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	74.79	51.31	63.05	0.0016	0.0416	0.15	0.1916	F	F	42.79	569.79	235	458.65434269338	0.89496539006385	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-16 19:51:43	FORECAST	2020	328	42	74.81	51.3	63.055	0.0016	0.0416	0.15	0.1916	F	F	42.81	582.81	235	458.65434269338	0.89531179285412	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	328	42	75.44	50.98	63.21	0.001	0.031	0.14	0.171	F	F	43.44	582.44	235	458.65434269338	0.90580480376555	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	61.11	46.73	53.92	0	0.14	0.15	0.29	F	F	29.11	563.11	235	458.65434269338	0.48034966033074	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	328	42	49.72	48.49	49.105	0	0.15	0.13	0.28	F	F	17.72	548.72	235	458.65434269338	0.12844377424228	93	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-16 03:52:03	FORECAST	2020	328	42	49.39	48.48	48.935	0	0.15	0.14	0.29	F	F	17.39	556.39	235	458.65434269338	0.12196315818858	93	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M