Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 23, 2020

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DAY 297 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/24/2020 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.19°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.52°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.244 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 25 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 488 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.26 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 204 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.25 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 11 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-24 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2020	297	11	57.18992	40.51994	48.85493	0	0	0	0.26	0.26	F	F	25.18992	488.18992	204	441.24597801994	0	0.24438726837038	93	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-24 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	45.94	45.94	45.94	0	0.0059	0.0059	0.26	0.2659	F	F	13.94	476.94	205	441.84013369272	0	0.029212833767025	93	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	59.72	46.6	53.16	0	0.0183	0.0183	0.26	0.2783	F	F	27.72	490.72	205	441.84013369272	0	0.33620144757095	93	2	2	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	55.22	45.03	50.125	0	0.02	0.02	0.26	0.28	F	F	23.22	486.22	205	441.84013369272	0	0.18350958178792	93	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	59.69	45.85	52.77	0	0.0207	0.0207	0.26	0.2807	F	F	27.69	490.69	205	441.84013369272	0	0.33503690234238	93	2	2	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-23 00:03:42	FORECAST	2020	297	11	61.41	45.3	53.355	0.437008	0.0213	0.0313	0.26	0.2913	F	F	29.41	478.41	204	441.4197675634	0.19290396978334	0.40403621035558	93	2	2	3	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2020-07-22 19:52:41	FORECAST	2020	297	11	60.29	43.07	51.68	2.653324	0.0086	0.0286	0.26	0.2886	F	F	28.29	492.29	204	442.29818922421	1.1735604006251	0.35861532237482	93	2	2	3	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2020-07-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	59.99	43.98	51.985	2.6540346666667	0.0087	0.0287	0.26	0.2887	F	F	27.99	491.99	204	442.29847009974	1.1738754726583	0.34675195725602	93	2	2	3	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2020-07-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	59.07	44.7	51.885	0.88595066666667	0.007	0.027	0.26	0.287	F	F	27.07	491.07	204	441.5981025233	0.39123413332925	0.3113378694744	93	2	2	3	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2020-07-22 07:58:32	FORECAST	2020	297	11	58.49	44.69	51.59	0.46878933333333	0.0114	0.0314	0.26	0.2914	F	F	26.49	490.49	204	441.43239885565	0.20693879997127	0.28985126863132	93	2	2	3	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2020-07-22 03:53:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	58.22	44.7	51.46	0.121492	0.011	0.041	0.26	0.301	F	F	26.22	489.22	204	441.29431237633	0.053613728599224	0.28009166664353	93	2	2	3	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2020-07-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	58.04	44.33	51.185	0	0.0188	0.0388	0.26	0.2988	F	F	26.04	491.04	204	441.24597801994	0	0.273674891295	93	2	2	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-21 19:53:19	FORECAST	2020	297	11	58.55	44.31	51.43	1.6765053333333	0.0447	0.0747	0.26	0.3347	F	F	26.55	514.55	204	441.91164321563	0.74086722671311	0.29204151531029	93	2	2	4	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2020-07-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	57.87	44.97	51.42	1.6363253333333	0.0443	0.0743	0.26	0.3343	F	F	25.87	513.87	204	441.89572266832	0.72308516569381	0.26768205887343	93	2	2	4	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2020-07-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	56.56	44.16	50.36	0	0.0325	0.0525	0.26	0.3125	F	F	24.56	512.56	204	441.24597801994	0	0.22382354778925	93	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	56.52	44.07	50.295	0	0.0444	0.0744	0.26	0.3344	F	F	24.52	510.52	204	441.24597801994	0	0.22255176280225	93	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	55.75	44.53	50.14	0	0.0485	0.0685	0.26	0.3285	F	F	23.75	506.75	204	441.24597801994	0	0.19888381625124	93	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	57.24	44.71	50.975	0	0.041	0.051	0.26	0.311	F	F	25.24	496.24	204	441.24597801994	0	0.246064640505	93	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	57.59	44.7	51.145	1.6973733333333	0.0351	0.0551	0.27	0.3251	F	F	25.59	516.59	204	441.91991111569	0.7501030725968	0.2579576401522	93	2	2	4	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2020-07-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	59.12	44.8	51.96	1.655936	0.0262	0.0562	0.27	0.3262	F	F	27.12	512.12	204	441.90349321841	0.73176390294611	0.313222064343	93	2	2	4	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2020-07-20 11:52:49	FORECAST	2020	297	11	60.42	44.71	52.565	0	0.0071	0.0171	0.27	0.2871	F	F	28.42	520.42	204	441.24597801994	0	0.3637995789238	93	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 07:52:50	FORECAST	2020	297	11	60.4	44.69	52.545	0	0.0097	0.0197	0.26	0.2797	F	F	28.4	519.4	204	441.24597801994	0	0.36300034908862	93	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	60.63	44.94	52.785	0	0.0063	0.0163	0.28	0.2963	F	F	28.63	516.63	204	441.24597801994	0	0.37222666858794	93	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.29	44	54.145	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.28	0.2814	F	F	32.29	515.29	204	441.24597801994	0	0.52540510392483	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.28	43.63	53.955	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.27	0.2712	F	F	32.28	529.28	204	441.24597801994	0	0.52498119181792	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 15:52:52	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.44	45.06	54.75	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.28	0.2815	F	F	32.44	529.44	204	441.24597801994	0	0.53176006652591	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.71	45.38	55.045	0	0.001	0.001	0.27	0.271	F	F	32.71	523.71	204	441.24597801994	0	0.54317755053026	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.7	45.39	55.045	0	0.001	0.011	0.28	0.291	F	F	32.7	525.7	204	441.24597801994	0	0.54275525702139	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.52	44.08	54.3	0	0.001	0.011	0.27	0.281	F	F	32.52	530.52	204	441.24597801994	0	0.53514617718898	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	65.82	45.19	55.505	0	0.0013	0.0013	0.27	0.2713	F	F	33.82	513.82	204	441.24597801994	0	0.58964254996734	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 19:58:35	FORECAST	2020	297	11	65.81	45.2	55.505	0	0.0013	0.0013	0.27	0.2713	F	F	33.81	531.81	204	441.24597801994	0	0.58922850849282	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 15:58:34	FORECAST	2020	297	11	66.16	46.3	56.23	0	0.0013	0.0013	0.27	0.2713	F	F	34.16	532.16	204	441.24597801994	0	0.6036576424505	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	63.77	46.07	54.92	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.27	0.2716	F	F	31.77	526.77	204	441.24597801994	0	0.50333477394979	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	297	11	63.76	46.08	54.92	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.27	0.2716	F	F	31.76	528.76	204	441.24597801994	0	0.50291002762754	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	63.66	46.5	55.08	0	0.0025	0.0025	0.27	0.2725	F	F	31.66	534.66	204	441.24597801994	0	0.49866246241814	93	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.29	47.8	56.045	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.24	0.2415	F	F	32.29	518.29	204	441.24597801994	0	0.52540510392483	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.29	47.8	56.045	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.26	0.2615	F	F	32.29	526.29	204	441.24597801994	0	0.52540510392483	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.68	49.03	56.855	0	0.0013	0.0013	0.26	0.2613	F	F	32.68	526.68	204	441.24597801994	0	0.54191052563723	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 11:53:00	FORECAST	2020	297	11	65.52	48.73	57.125	0	0.0017	0.0017	0.26	0.2617	F	F	33.52	524.52	204	441.24597801994	0	0.57717987188002	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	65.52	48.73	57.125	0	0.0017	0.0017	0.28	0.2817	F	F	33.52	520.52	204	441.24597801994	0	0.57717987188002	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	297	11	64.81	47.63	56.22	0	0.0017	0.0017	0.29	0.2917	F	F	32.81	528.81	204	441.24597801994	0	0.54739772623078	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	63.36	47.87	55.615	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.26	0.2614	F	F	31.36	524.36	204	441.24597801994	0	0.48592260204908	93	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	63.36	52.09	57.725	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.29	0.2914	F	F	31.36	536.36	204	441.24597801994	0	0.48592260204908	93	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-16 15:53:35	FORECAST	2020	297	11	65.12	52.4	58.76	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.29	0.2914	F	F	33.12	543.12	204	441.24597801994	0	0.56044419918491	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-16 11:53:02	FORECAST	2020	297	11	65.87	53.21	59.54	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.27	0.2704	F	F	33.87	537.87	204	441.24597801994	0	0.5917112503481	93	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-16 07:53:36	FORECAST	2020	297	11	56.78	53.21	54.995	0	0	0	0.27	0.27	F	F	24.78	527.78	204	441.24597801994	0	0.2308916220011	93	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	297	11	52.73	51.73	52.23	0	0	0	0.28	0.28	F	F	20.73	519.73	204	441.24597801994	0	0.12152172055744	93	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L