Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 24, 2020

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DAY 298 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/25/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.92°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.07°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.013 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 478 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.26 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 205 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.84 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 12 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-25 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	298	12	44.92004	37.07006	40.99505	0	0	0	0.26	0.26	F	F	12.92004	477.92004	205	441.84013369272	0	0.01317889858678	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-25 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	298	12	44.38	44.38	44.38	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.26	0.2608	F	F	12.38	477.38	206	442.43203585831	0	0.011217814530906	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	55.51	44.3	49.905	0	0.0395	0.0395	0.26	0.2995	F	F	23.51	488.51	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15661107755585	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	51.15	42.37	46.76	0	0.0433	0.0433	0.26	0.3033	F	F	19.15	484.15	206	442.43203585831	0	0.06593381746616	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	298	12	54.34	42.86	48.6	0	0.0494	0.0494	0.26	0.3094	F	F	22.34	487.34	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12670482465409	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-24 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	56.33	43.53	49.93	0	0.0384	0.0484	0.26	0.3084	F	F	24.33	478.33	205	441.84013369272	0	0.18013174385611	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	56.04	41.62	48.83	0	0.0418	0.0618	0.26	0.3218	F	F	24.04	492.04	205	441.84013369272	0	0.17157221694834	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	56.5	42.34	49.42	0	0.0342	0.0542	0.26	0.3142	F	F	24.5	492.5	205	441.84013369272	0	0.18527157525725	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	57.19	43.19	50.19	0	0.0199	0.0399	0.26	0.2999	F	F	25.19	493.19	205	441.84013369272	0	0.20705123212969	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	57.34	43.05	50.195	0	0.0183	0.0383	0.26	0.2983	F	F	25.34	488.34	205	441.84013369272	0	0.21197854331227	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	57.71	42.9	50.305	0	0.0087	0.0287	0.26	0.2887	F	F	25.71	493.71	205	441.84013369272	0	0.22442121939268	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-23 00:03:42	FORECAST	2020	298	12	58.71	43.4	51.055	0	0.0017	0.0317	0.26	0.2917	F	F	26.71	481.71	205	441.84013369272	0	0.26003882282576	94	2	2	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-22 19:52:41	FORECAST	2020	298	12	57.4	42.86	50.13	0.56800933333333	0.0043	0.0343	0.26	0.2943	F	F	25.4	494.4	205	442.06512574074	0.25109711736191	0.21396847558805	94	1	2	3	1	4	2	12	DRY	L
2020-07-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	57.48	42.84	50.16	0.57615466666667	0.0041	0.0341	0.26	0.2941	F	F	25.48	494.48	205	442.06834979795	0.25469974272172	0.21663852995889	94	1	2	3	1	4	2	12	DRY	L
2020-07-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	58.19	41.12	49.655	0	0.0139	0.0439	0.26	0.3039	F	F	26.19	494.19	205	441.84013369272	0	0.24116293972781	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-22 07:58:32	FORECAST	2020	298	12	58.16	42.62	50.39	0	0.0308	0.0608	0.26	0.3208	F	F	26.16	493.16	205	441.84013369272	0	0.24009710658947	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-22 03:53:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	57.99	42.43	50.21	0	0.0309	0.0709	0.26	0.3309	F	F	25.99	491.99	205	441.84013369272	0	0.23410609042469	94	1	2	3	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-07-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	58.57	42.74	50.655	0	0.0128	0.0528	0.26	0.3128	F	F	26.57	494.57	205	441.84013369272	0	0.25488310334296	94	2	2	3	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-21 19:53:19	FORECAST	2020	298	12	58.42	42.53	50.475	0	0.0006	0.0506	0.28	0.3306	F	F	26.42	518.42	205	441.84013369272	0	0.24941898875146	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	58.59	42.56	50.575	0	0.0017	0.0517	0.28	0.3317	F	F	26.59	517.59	205	441.84013369272	0	0.25561634978997	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	52.45	42.53	47.49	0	0.0044	0.0344	0.28	0.3144	F	F	20.45	510.45	205	441.84013369272	0	0.087216879201701	94	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	53.31	42.35	47.83	0	0.0058	0.0558	0.28	0.3358	F	F	21.31	509.31	205	441.84013369272	0	0.10387241548964	94	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	58.46	42.6	50.53	0	0.0055	0.0655	0.27	0.3355	F	F	26.46	510.46	205	441.84013369272	0	0.2508699813218	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	62.38	41.17	51.775	0	0.0022	0.0422	0.27	0.3122	F	F	30.38	503.38	205	441.84013369272	0	0.41119555228709	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	62.38	41.05	51.715	0	0.0023	0.0623	0.27	0.3323	F	F	30.38	524.38	205	441.84013369272	0	0.41119555228709	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	62.39	44.53	53.46	0	0.0024	0.0524	0.28	0.3324	F	F	30.39	519.39	205	441.84013369272	0	0.41163946631019	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 11:52:49	FORECAST	2020	298	12	63.99	44	53.995	0	0.003	0.023	0.27	0.293	F	F	31.99	528.99	205	441.84013369272	0	0.48373779006305	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 07:52:50	FORECAST	2020	298	12	63.99	44.01	54	0	0.003	0.023	0.26	0.283	F	F	31.99	527.99	205	441.84013369272	0	0.48373779006305	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	65.56	43.95	54.755	0	0.0029	0.0229	0.28	0.3029	F	F	33.56	527.56	205	441.84013369272	0	0.55502103906987	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	298	12	66.92	44.75	55.835	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.28	0.2815	F	F	34.92	526.92	205	441.84013369272	0	0.61544130000957	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	66.92	44.75	55.835	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.27	0.2715	F	F	34.92	540.92	205	441.84013369272	0	0.61544130000957	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 15:52:52	FORECAST	2020	298	12	67.08	44.62	55.85	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.28	0.2815	F	F	35.08	541.08	205	441.84013369272	0	0.6223981181506	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	67.7	44.99	56.345	0	0.0017	0.0017	0.27	0.2717	F	F	35.7	536.7	205	441.84013369272	0	0.64896446488362	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	67.69	44.99	56.34	0	0.0017	0.0117	0.28	0.2917	F	F	35.69	538.69	205	441.84013369272	0	0.64854129705447	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	68.37	45.16	56.765	0	0.0017	0.0117	0.27	0.2817	F	F	36.37	544.37	205	441.84013369272	0	0.67687335657851	94	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2020-07-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	66.37	45.57	55.97	0	0.0034	0.0034	0.27	0.2734	F	F	34.37	525.37	205	441.84013369272	0	0.59125559228702	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 19:58:35	FORECAST	2020	298	12	66.36	45.56	55.96	0	0.0034	0.0034	0.27	0.2734	F	F	34.36	543.36	205	441.84013369272	0	0.59081231321563	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 15:58:34	FORECAST	2020	298	12	67.15	45.83	56.49	0	0.0034	0.0034	0.27	0.2734	F	F	35.15	544.15	205	441.84013369272	0	0.62542943752577	94	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	61.35	43.2	52.275	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.27	0.2716	F	F	29.35	533.35	205	441.84013369272	0	0.36617876630758	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	61.34	43.2	52.27	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.27	0.2716	F	F	29.34	535.34	205	441.84013369272	0	0.3657495191811	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	61.28	43.26	52.27	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.27	0.2716	F	F	29.28	541.28	205	441.84013369272	0	0.36317758052242	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	62.82	46.39	54.605	0	0.0026	0.0026	0.24	0.2426	F	F	30.82	525.82	205	441.84013369272	0	0.43082744097359	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	298	12	62.82	46.39	54.605	0	0.0026	0.0026	0.26	0.2626	F	F	30.82	533.82	205	441.84013369272	0	0.43082744097359	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	298	12	61.63	46.85	54.24	0	0.0026	0.0026	0.26	0.2626	F	F	29.63	533.63	205	441.84013369272	0	0.37826385555416	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-17 11:53:00	FORECAST	2020	298	12	59.46	46.27	52.865	0	0.0005	0.0005	0.26	0.2605	F	F	27.46	529.46	205	441.84013369272	0	0.28854403075034	94	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	298	12	49.24	46.27	47.755	0	0.0005	0.0005	0.28	0.2805	F	F	17.24	515.24	205	441.84013369272	0	0.042224528972699	94	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	298	12	47.04	45.88	46.46	0	0.0005	0.0005	0.29	0.2905	F	F	15.04	521.04	205	441.84013369272	0	0.023986351247458	94	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L