Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 7, 2020

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DAY 251 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/08/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.14°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.35°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.061 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 279 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.42 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.73 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.40 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 109 in SWE DAY: 158 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.53 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.87 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -35 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-08 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	251	-35	34.55006	30.14006	32.34506	109.23534583333	0.42000000000002	0.73000000000002	2.4	3.13	F	F	2.55006	278.55006	158	456.52980961441	49.869191636456	0.060951982611021	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-34	34.62	34.62	34.62	109.98567733333	0.0045	0.3145	2.4	2.7145	F	F	2.62	278.62	159	457.33414868763	50.300206111072	0.061707797569228	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-34	42.3	33.85	38.075	109.69065712769	0.4	0.71	2.4	3.11	F	F	10.3	286.3	159	457.22877600542	50.153724897723	0.19579725783424	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-34	37.51	33.16	35.335	110.21990808163	0.3861	0.6961	2.4	3.0961	F	F	5.51	281.51	159	457.41775292028	50.416542681778	0.099738697767414	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-07 03:59:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-34	42.55	31.91	37.23	110.56670157837	0.4856	0.7956	2.4	3.1956	F	F	10.55	286.55	159	457.54144299317	50.588848187164	0.20200189163321	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 23:55:14	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	38.05	31.24	34.645	110.46929113958	0.4162	0.7262	2.4	3.1262	F	F	6.05	282.05	158	456.97220140592	50.481395159807	0.10842432128408	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 19:55:36	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	42.37	30.28	36.325	110.24420434073	0.3751	0.6851	2.4	3.0851	F	F	10.37	286.37	158	456.89160706227	50.369651690537	0.19752281324667	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	42.62	31.3	36.96	110.14286135897	0.3807	0.6907	2.4	3.0907	F	F	10.62	286.62	158	456.85530525431	50.319350547735	0.20376001064843	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	41.68	31.14	36.41	110.34241226473	0.4731	0.7831	2.4	3.1831	F	F	9.68	285.68	158	456.92677695506	50.418402797569	0.18091548802681	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	41.8	33.15	37.475	110.32503771576	0.4904	0.8004	2.4	3.2004	F	F	9.8	283.8	158	456.92055547852	50.409777516275	0.18373924328147	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	37.31	33.37	35.34	111.39544285427	0.589	0.899	2.4	3.299	T	F	5.31	274.31	158	457.30333389766	50.941507398262	0.096653927119335	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	41.37	32.5	36.935	111.5777813007	0.4995	0.8795	2.4	3.2795	F	F	9.37	265.37	158	457.36843471239	51.032155182182	0.17374722394975	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	41.25	31.53	36.39	113.1682201525	0.5346	1.1546	2.4	3.5546	T	F	9.25	278.25	158	457.93499699471	51.823688555433	0.1710214798771	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	36.78	33.3	35.04	113.0183638282	0.4989	1.1189	2.4	3.5189	T	F	4.78	278.78	158	457.88171126631	51.749041834172	0.088818109569057	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	40.72	33.28	37	111.01047390697	0.4107	0.9907	2.4	3.3907	T	F	8.72	283.72	158	457.16578827072	50.750190809985	0.1593113506885	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	40.38	33.35	36.865	110.73816001344	0.3811	0.9511	2.4	3.3511	T	F	8.38	284.38	158	457.06841193999	50.6149149385	0.15208169314528	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	40.86	33.58	37.22	110.22065805081	0.3524	0.9324	2.4	3.3324	T	F	8.86	280.86	158	456.88317343985	50.357964028883	0.16235246375558	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 00:02:23	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	37.23	33.51	35.37	111.57467185683	0.4002	1.0202	2.4	3.4202	T	F	5.23	275.23	158	457.36732479147	51.030609181645	0.095439776820758	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	40.8	33.61	37.205	112.11794015262	0.4223	1.0023	2.42	3.4223	T	F	8.8	290.8	158	457.56111230218	51.300809405263	0.16104454433772	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	42	33.42	37.71	112.18445373491	0.4289	0.9889	2.42	3.4089	T	F	10	288	158	457.58481978257	51.333903044694	0.18850598957602	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	37.21	31.65	34.43	111.22889432986	0.4553	1.0353	2.42	3.4553	T	F	5.21	287.21	158	457.24384425061	50.858727235132	0.095137995127845	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	37.21	32.81	35.01	110.55223744597	0.4314	0.8514	2.43	3.2814	F	F	5.21	291.21	158	457.00188945693	50.522581396499	0.095137995127845	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	42.97	31.9	37.435	110.13071967611	0.3911	0.8211	2.43	3.2511	F	F	10.97	297.97	158	456.85095538655	50.313324501439	0.21268622853651	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.71	31.48	37.595	110.87131637917	0.3742	0.9642	2.44	3.4042	T	F	11.71	283.71	158	457.11603554699	50.681056599123	0.23229143577917	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.74	31.57	37.655	111.86514401534	0.3532	0.9132	2.44	3.3532	T	F	11.74	300.74	158	457.47097145851	51.175056105043	0.23310686029365	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.81	33.19	38.5	111.8910588591	0.3691	0.7991	2.42	3.2191	F	F	11.81	294.81	158	457.48021471298	51.187945631322	0.23501567318231	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.11	33.76	38.435	110.13787358714	0.3155	0.7455	2.41	3.1555	F	F	11.11	295.11	158	456.85351835615	50.316875052552	0.21631956520038	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.15	33.74	38.445	109.90153957525	0.3155	0.7755	2.42	3.1955	F	F	11.15	294.15	158	456.76882437287	50.199597028556	0.21736421078103	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	44.01	34.17	39.09	110.0563844172	0.2895	0.6495	2.42	3.0695	F	F	12.01	301.01	158	456.82432118239	50.276433103175	0.24051663230547	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.28	33.05	38.165	110.44440267348	0.288	0.478	2.41	2.888	F	F	11.28	294.28	158	456.9632921334	50.469037843382	0.22077932100622	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-02 19:55:49	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.32	33.06	38.19	111.55980062412	0.288	0.478	2.43	2.908	F	F	11.32	310.32	158	457.36201636016	51.023215358184	0.22183626205925	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.45	33.98	38.715	110.93126320355	0.2227	0.3627	2.42	2.7827	F	F	11.45	312.45	158	457.13747037611	50.710837046497	0.22529117419486	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-02 12:02:20	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	36.98	33.73	35.355	110.18075600846	0.3339	0.4739	2.41	2.8839	F	F	4.98	308.98	158	456.86888049272	50.338158649428	0.091717719733656	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	45.67	33.79	39.73	109.332436	0.3016	0.4516	2.4	2.8516	F	F	13.67	311.67	158	456.56466848056	49.917327396512	0.28875474073467	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.11	32.31	37.71	109.27272929003	0.316	0.436	2.4	2.836	F	F	11.11	312.11	158	456.54323263935	49.887725069396	0.21631956520038	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.9	31.14	37.52	109.63725456487	0.4762	0.6762	2.4	3.0762	F	F	11.9	310.9	158	456.67405347764	50.068489454299	0.23748247766798	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	43.92	31.16	37.54	110.63076188908	0.4762	0.6762	2.4	3.0762	F	F	11.92	325.92	158	457.02998907656	50.561575897696	0.23803257709147	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-01 15:55:32	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	36.73	32.63	34.68	111.55417482793	0.6052	1.0052	2.41	3.4152	T	F	4.73	317.73	158	457.36000812516	51.020418305697	0.088103952674411	91	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	44.66	33.96	39.31	108.47554253928	0.379	0.759	2.4	3.159	F	F	12.66	323.66	158	456.25671579495	49.492694783045	0.25886832391628	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	44.68	33.97	39.325	108.3692515425	0.379	0.759	2.41	3.169	F	F	12.68	321.68	158	456.21846990149	49.440054123091	0.2594442452098	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 04:02:17	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	42.05	33.9	37.975	108.51699524569	0.4246	0.8346	2.42	3.2546	F	F	10.05	319.05	158	456.27162861344	49.513226152986	0.18970946092674	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	46.27	32.76	39.515	107.61134	0.2712	0.3612	2.38	2.7412	F	F	14.27	339.27	158	455.9454567474	49.0649015675	0.30724487171842	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	46.28	35.22	40.75	108.82050266667	0.2405	0.3305	2.41	2.7405	F	F	14.28	352.28	158	456.38076910416	49.663584701315	0.30755741254873	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	47.27	33.13	40.2	109.23130288141	0.1547	0.3947	2.42	2.8147	F	F	15.27	350.27	158	456.52835786263	49.867187331645	0.33915915756585	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	37.36	34.56	35.96	108.38557466667	0.0279	0.1279	2.39	2.5179	F	F	5.36	339.36	158	456.22434400014	49.448137701379	0.097418491143197	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-31 07:59:09	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	35.7	34.28	34.99	108.76795211419	0.0404	0.3904	2.39	2.7804	F	F	3.7	324.7	158	456.36187808244	49.637546902014	0.074326076467658	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-31 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	251	-35	35.22	34.94	35.08	108.32163091667	0.0106	0.1106	2.43	2.5406	F	F	3.22	339.22	158	456.20133157866	49.416472262955	0.068494673249069	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L