Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 6, 2020

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DAY 250 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/06/2020 12:00:03 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.04°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.56°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.30°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.236 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 280 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.31 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.71 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.02 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 110 in SWE DAY: 157 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.73 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 50.15 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -35 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-35	45.04	33.56	39.3	109.80205185693	0.3117	0.3117	2.71	3.0217	F	F	13.04	280.04	158	456.73315618705	50.150237700432	0.23557522704658	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	250	-35	42.97	31.72	37.345	109.8566458908	0.3081	0.3081	2.71	3.0181	F	F	10.97	277.97	158	456.75273027319	50.177322949276	0.18213145090067	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-06 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-35	38.08	32.91	35.495	110.28697296914	0.3123	0.3123	2.71	3.0223	F	F	6.08	273.08	158	456.90692429861	50.390881609534	0.08873433481925	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	42.05	31.56	36.805	111.09827921729	0.3666	0.3766	2.71	3.0866	F	F	10.05	260.05	157	456.6614841787	50.734305077065	0.16102466847132	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	36.96	30.95	33.955	112.49857486266	0.3819	0.6219	2.71	3.3319	F	F	4.96	272.96	157	457.16294209341	51.430179465528	0.073560380095631	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	42.32	32.22	37.27	112.09415081911	0.381	0.621	2.71	3.331	F	F	10.32	278.32	157	457.01829749089	51.229077966037	0.16704714176515	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	43.11	33.38	38.245	110.90077102393	0.3365	0.5765	2.71	3.2865	F	F	11.11	279.11	157	456.59061116193	50.636250820147	0.18548828004329	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	42.5	31.41	36.955	110.62893365967	0.3276	0.5676	2.71	3.2776	F	F	10.5	279.5	157	456.49300801354	50.501334699634	0.17114157549062	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	42.79	33.81	38.3	110.26574076933	0.3465	0.5765	2.71	3.2865	F	F	10.79	275.79	157	456.36249846872	50.321148952994	0.17787159351687	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 00:02:23	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	43.33	33.92	38.625	111.0262586969	0.3475	0.6175	2.71	3.3275	F	F	11.33	274.33	157	456.63564475396	50.698547224678	0.19084012324205	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	43.77	34.21	38.99	111.97099512672	0.3414	0.6014	2.71	3.3114	F	F	11.77	285.77	157	456.97422062289	51.167858230404	0.20182373934177	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	43.76	33.71	38.735	112.02005466193	0.2922	0.5822	2.71	3.2922	F	F	11.76	281.76	157	456.99178046201	51.192244227408	0.2015699911981	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	43.9	34.31	39.105	110.78821652329	0.3188	0.5988	2.71	3.3088	F	F	11.9	285.9	157	456.55020666706	50.580383149981	0.20513980265894	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	44.07	34.94	39.505	110.24339561498	0.3455	0.4455	2.71	3.1555	F	F	12.07	290.07	157	456.35446504036	50.310065830108	0.20952460208707	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	44.68	34.98	39.83	110.18271939276	0.3442	0.4642	2.71	3.1742	F	F	12.68	290.68	157	456.33264870049	50.279972181521	0.22570456079193	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	43.97	34.59	39.28	111.14079008269	0.3609	0.6309	2.71	3.3409	F	F	11.97	275.97	157	456.67673395106	50.755413023702	0.20693867978929	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	44.08	34.43	39.255	112.23502352836	0.3404	0.5904	2.72	3.3104	F	F	12.08	293.08	157	457.0686982965	51.299116107385	0.20978423360821	88	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	39.1	34.61	36.855	112.38987712776	0.3296	0.4396	2.72	3.1596	F	F	7.1	287.1	157	457.12408031843	51.376119219128	0.10447131129183	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	39.19	34.24	36.715	110.648024	0.3209	0.4309	2.72	3.1509	F	F	7.19	288.19	157	456.49986459661	50.510807973883	0.10595100413635	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	38.69	34.26	36.475	110.41290266667	0.3492	0.4592	2.73	3.1892	F	F	6.69	286.69	157	456.41539405742	50.39414847963	0.09791922676527	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	46.46	34.66	40.56	110.62738716667	0.3047	0.3747	2.72	3.0947	F	F	14.46	293.46	157	456.49245255274	50.500567287214	0.27672949753132	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	46.99	32.28	39.635	110.82004266667	0.1504	0.2004	2.71	2.9104	F	F	14.99	286.99	157	456.56163269695	50.596179615439	0.29294388697125	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 19:55:48	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	47.03	30.98	39.005	111.9353315357	0.1456	0.1956	2.73	2.9256	F	F	15.03	303.03	157	456.9614542095	51.150131875976	0.29418527666834	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	48.31	34.8	41.555	111.508388	0.11	0.14	2.73	2.87	F	F	16.31	305.31	157	456.8085323928	50.937983071767	0.33512304164802	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 12:02:20	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	48.25	34.5	41.375	110.14194	0.119	0.139	2.72	2.859	F	F	16.25	308.25	157	456.31798444327	50.259748063472	0.33315456067794	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	48.43	34.8	41.615	110.02342266667	0.1353	0.1453	2.71	2.8553	F	F	16.43	302.43	157	456.2753570232	50.200976458147	0.33907356378553	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	48.02	34.61	41.315	109.43419733333	0.1064	0.1164	2.71	2.8264	F	F	16.02	305.02	157	456.06323830916	49.908914417604	0.3256515768046	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	48.11	34.84	41.475	109.312264	0.2035	0.2035	2.71	2.9135	F	F	16.11	303.11	157	456.0193031479	49.848502454799	0.32857934063698	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	48.12	34.85	41.485	110.286516	0.2035	0.2035	2.71	2.9135	F	F	16.12	318.12	157	456.36996707624	50.331453675873	0.3289053020502	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 15:55:32	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	47.03	33.68	40.355	110.34455750572	0.3905	0.4005	2.72	3.1205	F	F	15.03	317.03	157	456.39083066348	50.360244259231	0.29418527666834	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	47.11	34.69	40.9	109.06591866667	0.3577	0.3777	2.71	3.0877	F	F	15.11	315.11	157	455.9304981826	49.726478632436	0.29667531225672	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	47.13	34.69	40.91	108.96019333333	0.3577	0.3877	2.71	3.0977	F	F	15.13	313.13	157	455.8923682399	49.674120582611	0.29729932449842	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 04:02:17	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	46.52	35.37	40.945	108.80405758333	0.3558	0.4158	2.72	3.1358	F	F	14.52	312.52	157	455.83603900203	49.596810636135	0.27854283935819	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	52.24	36.78	44.51	108.35312	0.0864	0.0864	2.69	2.7764	F	F	20.24	329.24	157	455.67322835238	49.373615992453	0.47148122831769	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	52.26	36.78	44.52	109.527288	0.0864	0.0864	2.72	2.8064	F	F	20.26	342.26	157	456.09677168842	49.955042468588	0.47219867021995	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	49.11	36.08	42.595	109.31660266667	0.2282	0.2382	2.73	2.9682	F	F	17.11	339.11	157	456.02086669483	49.850651892188	0.36178389138599	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	50.96	36.05	43.505	108.604624	0.0954	0.0954	2.7	2.7954	F	F	18.96	337.96	157	455.76405666683	49.498084007016	0.42585790512042	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 07:59:09	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	48.05	34.68	41.365	108.860464	0.3444	0.3544	2.7	3.0544	F	F	16.05	325.05	157	455.85639137423	49.624738282365	0.32662631586966	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	50.97	36.05	43.51	108.38919891667	0.0954	0.0954	2.74	2.8354	F	F	18.97	339.97	157	455.68626148031	49.391468839182	0.42621132408726	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	52.74	37.05	44.895	112.32965066667	0.0568	0.0568	1.42	1.4768	F	F	20.74	311.74	157	457.10254344513	51.346169024036	0.48943899206589	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	52.76	37.08	44.92	113.68230533333	0.0277	0.0277	2.1	2.1277	F	F	20.76	338.76	157	457.5854572414	52.01936966621	0.49015799132226	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	51.84	38.08	44.96	113.41083066667	0.0062	0.0062	2.12	2.1262	F	F	19.84	343.84	157	457.48867059277	51.884170152515	0.45715490094479	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	39.27	35.75	37.51	113.70471866667	0.215	0.335	2.24	2.575	F	F	7.27	315.27	157	457.59344510224	52.030533939061	0.10727890856123	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	36.98	35.9	36.44	113.00558666667	0.1787	0.2987	2.29	2.5887	F	F	4.98	315.98	157	457.34406802851	51.682434716082	0.073812790350671	88	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-30 03:55:51	FORECAST	2020	250	-36	36.87	36.37	36.62	112.38949333333	0.0205	0.0505	2.31	2.3605	F	F	4.87	321.87	157	457.12394308467	51.375928353822	0.072432666995546	88	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L