Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 19, 2020

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DAY 232 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/20/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.08°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.71°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.39°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.172 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 238 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.70 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.98 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 137 in SWE DAY: 139 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.33 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 62.57 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -54 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-20 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2020	232	-54	39.07994	33.71	36.39497	137.10930583333	0.069999999999993	0.27999999999999	3.7	3.98	T	F	7.07994	238.07994	139	456.33173269435	62.567327099444	0.17242561819784	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-53	38.91	38.91	38.91	136.96222533333	0.0034	0.2134	3.7	3.9134	T	F	6.91	237.91	140	456.81597432371	62.566532411191	0.16797853140766	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-53	49.6	39.57	44.585	137.15868	0.0458	0.2558	3.7	3.9558	T	F	17.6	248.6	140	456.88635696467	62.665929631282	0.55642596756813	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 07:56:25	FORECAST	2020	232	-53	45.03	35.66	40.345	137.13222133333	0.0629	0.2729	3.7	3.9729	T	F	13.03	244.03	140	456.87687982245	62.652541405895	0.37068726134015	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-53	52.1	37.57	44.835	137.05284475	0.0849	0.2949	3.7	3.9949	T	F	20.1	251.1	140	456.84844436506	62.612378919843	0.65545573541586	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	49.7	37.2	43.45	137.72714133333	0.0642	0.2742	3.7	3.9742	T	F	17.7	242.7	139	456.55372185384	62.879838976023	0.56050153328058	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	49.27	35.12	42.195	138.854952	0.1175	0.5975	3.7	4.2975	T	F	17.27	251.27	139	456.95804852642	63.45088789415	0.54293652118236	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	48.17	36.22	42.195	138.86845466667	0.1299	0.6099	3.7	4.3099	T	F	16.17	250.17	139	456.96288229769	63.457729304706	0.49770084170373	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	41.22	36.92	39.07	138.36300666667	0.1612	0.6412	3.7	4.3412	T	F	9.22	243.22	139	456.78182568284	63.201706792167	0.23467750723636	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	46.41	37.07	41.74	138.075296	0.209	0.859	3.7	4.559	T	F	14.41	245.41	139	456.67866093361	63.056041285293	0.4256266640278	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	45.69	37.86	41.775	137.91340091667	0.2169	0.8969	3.7	4.5969	T	F	13.69	243.69	139	456.6205768692	62.974096684561	0.39670908066179	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-17 23:56:20	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	46.82	38.2	42.51	138.626592	0.2442	0.9242	3.7	4.6242	T	F	14.82	250.82	139	456.87627363233	63.335200779309	0.44228496151792	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-17 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	42.77	33.91	38.34	140.68369150749	0.2843	0.7943	3.7	4.4943	T	F	10.77	241.77	139	457.61120552735	64.378433668781	0.28656939047451	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-17 16:01:53	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	42.42	34.07	38.245	140.54009552754	0.2998	0.8198	3.7	4.5198	T	F	10.42	242.42	139	457.56002813128	64.305530063155	0.27439199410765	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	41.54	34.24	37.89	139.82115066667	0.2948	0.8548	3.7	4.5548	T	F	9.54	241.54	139	457.30351637001	63.940703862767	0.24494768703322	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	38.63	34.6	36.615	139.88221333333	0.4075	0.8775	3.7	4.5775	T	F	6.63	233.63	139	457.3253210774	63.971678125684	0.16081348842513	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	38.1	34.6	36.35	139.74527175	0.416	0.906	3.7	4.606	T	F	6.1	235.1	139	457.27641625404	63.902217054287	0.14780421938765	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-16 23:56:31	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	42.08	33.79	37.935	140.4927422833	0.2812	0.9612	3.72	4.6812	T	F	10.08	247.08	139	457.54314741159	64.281491492784	0.26281211962902	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 19:56:40	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	40.99	36.02	38.505	141.36922133333	0.168	0.868	3.72	4.588	T	F	8.99	246.99	139	457.85527024558	64.72664303798	0.22744517137041	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	42.11	34.75	38.43	141.54712087332	0.1365	0.8165	3.72	4.5365	T	F	10.11	241.11	139	457.91853723866	64.817050540653	0.2638237435543	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	43.55	35.66	39.605	140.55217333333	0.0957	0.5657	3.72	4.2857	T	F	11.55	244.55	139	457.56433336252	64.311661493919	0.31459107128302	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	43.55	35.39	39.47	140.28124533333	0.1551	0.8751	3.78	4.6551	T	F	11.55	243.55	139	457.46772713801	64.17414246273	0.31459107128302	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 03:59:18	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	44.83	35.02	39.925	140.28583733333	0.1513	0.7913	3.76	4.5513	T	F	12.83	238.83	139	457.46936508555	64.176472935375	0.36291119466317	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	47.14	33.48	40.31	139.80931238893	0.0805	0.8905	3.62	4.5105	T	F	15.14	252.14	139	457.29928867908	63.934699106167	0.45535940683691	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	47.14	34.21	40.675	141.01993866667	0.0851	0.9351	3.68	4.6151	T	F	15.14	257.14	139	457.73097051622	64.549193388031	0.45535940683691	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	41.76	35.39	38.575	141.216028	0.1543	1.0043	3.83	4.8343	T	F	9.76	251.76	139	457.80076668812	64.648805887051	0.25214610091683	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	44.82	35.08	39.95	140.10484476372	0.1225	0.8825	3.68	4.5625	T	F	12.82	256.82	139	457.404791314	64.084627281228	0.36252383971769	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 07:56:28	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	44.87	35.08	39.975	140.18055351967	0.1225	1.1125	3.77	4.8825	T	F	12.87	254.87	139	457.43180597882	64.123043759613	0.36446201329538	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	38.44	34.38	36.41	140.72691142517	0.3644	1.7444	3.82	5.5644	T	F	6.44	251.44	139	457.62660538823	64.400378762272	0.15606655753502	92	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	46.65	35.6	41.125	141.04599488551	0.206	1.876	3.5	5.376	T	F	14.65	249.65	139	457.74024698751	64.562428535492	0.43536372608138	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	46.65	35.6	41.125	141.20128856887	0.206	1.666	3.78	5.446	T	F	14.65	258.65	139	457.79552153312	64.641317541536	0.43536372608138	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	45.45	35.89	40.67	141.09347035617	0.1595	1.5195	3.76	5.2795	T	F	13.45	256.45	139	457.75714751011	64.586544522541	0.38718647456017	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	44.3	37.27	40.785	140.10428559468	0.13	1.1	3.85	4.95	T	F	12.3	256.3	139	457.40459177001	64.084343557665	0.34258347454363	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-14 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	44.3	37.27	40.785	140.23278402007	0.13	1.11	3.84	4.95	T	F	12.3	256.3	139	457.45044002187	64.149548755474	0.34258347454363	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	44.23	36.45	40.34	140.86998743425	0.1504	1.3504	3.95	5.3004	T	F	12.23	261.23	139	457.67757331046	64.473034001181	0.33993092090783	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 23:56:50	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	41.11	34.11	37.61	144.07600816786	0.3149	1.7749	3.74	5.5149	T	F	9.11	257.11	139	458.81480886352	66.104206149355	0.23120282732217	92	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	41.11	34.11	37.61	143.61156133333	0.3149	1.7949	3.74	5.5349	T	F	9.11	257.11	139	458.65063394545	65.867533647429	0.23120282732217	92	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	43.72	35.56	39.64	143.7069	0.1429	1.5329	3.87	5.4029	T	F	11.72	251.72	139	458.68435051907	65.916106091609	0.32085062189986	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	37.71	33.94	35.825	143.891072	0.3804	2.0404	3.51	5.5504	T	F	5.71	243.71	139	458.74945993536	66.009951569521	0.13869290768864	92	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	37.71	33.94	35.825	143.96403070727	0.3804	2.0404	3.62	5.6604	T	F	5.71	239.71	139	458.77524424472	66.047133350184	0.13869290768864	92	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 03:56:45	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	42.04	34.31	38.175	143.5858732336	0.1727	1.2327	3.88	5.1127	T	F	10.04	253.04	139	458.64154793796	65.854447161881	0.26146637635238	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 23:59:21	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	42.18	34.37	38.275	143.22058533333	0.1156	1.1156	4.12	5.2356	T	F	10.18	259.18	139	458.51227963167	65.668397071369	0.2661918857798	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	42.18	34.96	38.57	143.54571158294	0.0816	1.0816	4.1	5.1816	T	F	10.18	259.18	139	458.62734137613	65.833988069228	0.2661918857798	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	44.68	36.26	40.47	143.12639466667	0.0318	0.8418	4.03	4.8718	T	F	12.68	260.68	139	458.47892792557	65.620435984625	0.35711579820508	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	38.45	32.57	35.51	143.14022533333	0.0342	0.8442	3.89	4.7342	T	F	6.45	260.45	139	458.48382568693	65.627478120516	0.15631407615197	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	35.13	32.57	33.85	143.07030666667	0.0318	0.8418	4.1	4.9418	T	F	3.13	257.13	139	458.45906409398	65.591878894038	0.088020806417278	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-12 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	232	-54	35.59	33.59	34.59	142.8064375	0.001	0.701	3.98	4.681	T	F	3.59	258.59	139	458.36557559275	65.457554923038	0.095870174953694	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L