Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 20, 2020

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DAY 233 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/21/2020 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.35°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.40°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.38°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.097 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 232 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.31 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.05 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.43 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 136 in SWE DAY: 140 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.44 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 62.04 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -53 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-21 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2020	233	-53	36.35006	32.39996	34.37501	135.92820583333	0.31	0.38	3.05	3.43	F	F	4.35006	232.35006	140	456.44494286715	62.04374214563	0.096533512645832	86	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-52	32.89	32.89	32.89	136.01619467105	0.0061	0.0761	3.05	3.1261	F	F	0.89	228.89	141	457.01294267058	62.161161377469	0.047586473319125	86	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-05-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	233	-52	45.49	35.29	40.39	136.40495333333	0.1663	0.2363	3.05	3.2863	F	F	13.49	241.49	141	457.15199250952	62.357796204501	0.36928311779744	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 08:01:57	FORECAST	2020	233	-52	45.56	34.96	40.26	136.28878666667	0.1956	0.2656	3.05	3.3156	F	F	13.56	241.56	141	457.11045680574	62.299029530699	0.37208186753423	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	233	-52	44.78	35.17	39.975	136.28761116667	0.2073	0.2773	3.05	3.3273	F	F	12.78	240.78	141	457.11003643991	62.298434906704	0.34130914820853	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	40.64	35.17	37.905	136.08203733333	0.2266	0.2266	3.05	3.2766	F	F	8.64	236.64	140	456.50020308928	62.12147767947	0.19847010129472	86	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	43.64	34.85	39.245	137.09581333333	0.246	0.296	3.05	3.346	F	F	11.64	250.64	140	456.86383792024	62.634119442264	0.29821411325497	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	40.78	34.72	37.75	137.07892133333	0.2242	0.2742	3.05	3.3242	F	F	8.78	247.78	140	456.85778653798	62.625572581361	0.20262645876227	86	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	44.97	35.4	40.185	136.10498	0.2504	0.3004	3.05	3.3504	F	F	12.97	251.97	140	456.50844283375	62.133072481718	0.34871767544654	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 07:56:25	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.94	35.35	37.645	136.20994	0.2094	0.2694	3.05	3.3194	F	F	7.94	241.94	140	456.54613257243	62.186121324922	0.17846905592108	86	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	40.41	35.94	38.175	136.09021941667	0.2498	0.3298	3.05	3.3798	F	F	8.41	249.41	140	456.50314169884	62.125612718193	0.19175426135406	86	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.45	35.28	37.365	136.90019866667	0.4181	0.4781	3.05	3.5281	T	F	7.45	240.45	140	456.79374510422	62.535154454459	0.16525086573745	86	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.2	35.07	37.135	138.09210747949	0.3515	0.7415	3.05	3.7915	T	F	7.2	248.2	140	457.22029100902	63.13851356782	0.15875688725202	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	42.67	34.88	38.775	138.01300492984	0.3922	0.7922	3.05	3.8422	T	F	10.67	250.67	140	457.19202273516	63.098444887631	0.26362519654074	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	38.95	34.86	36.905	137.59423263979	0.4289	0.8589	3.05	3.9089	T	F	6.95	239.95	140	457.04227461838	62.886381060061	0.15243207643161	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.21	34.36	36.785	137.312083184	0.471	1.121	3.05	4.171	T	F	7.21	242.21	140	456.94129139378	62.743560614065	0.15901339847836	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	44.69	33.74	39.215	137.18726580987	0.4141	1.1041	3.05	4.1541	T	F	12.69	246.69	140	456.89659530551	62.6803946678	0.33782085441934	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-17 23:56:20	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.22	34.77	36.995	137.87909833029	0.4984	1.2584	3	4.2584	T	F	7.22	248.22	140	457.14415660946	63.030624120274	0.15927018040315	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	37.98	29.81	33.895	141.39951705203	0.411	1.041	3	4.041	T	F	5.98	237.98	140	458.39716568839	64.817137846359	0.12948842271267	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 16:01:53	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	37.82	29.7	33.76	141.16399441454	0.4082	1.0682	3	4.0682	T	F	5.82	237.82	140	458.31368628933	64.697390651453	0.12594616593376	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	37.36	27.05	32.205	140.40340870143	0.354	1.044	3	4.044	T	F	5.36	237.36	140	458.04376055606	64.31090531649	0.11613944408594	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	36.59	27.05	31.82	140.45783068561	0.3488	1.0488	3.02	4.0688	T	F	4.59	228.59	140	458.06309180522	64.338548192104	0.10095613330662	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	35.5	27.08	31.29	140.78654328901	0.35	1.07	3.03	4.1	T	F	3.5	228.5	140	458.17979710959	64.505549839918	0.082006475234162	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 23:56:31	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	38.87	31.55	35.21	140.56244445622	0.2333	0.8333	3.22	4.0533	T	F	6.87	243.87	140	458.1002441892	64.391690129224	0.15044385479884	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-16 19:56:40	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	38.87	31.55	35.21	141.43974485367	0.2292	0.6392	3.32	3.9592	T	F	6.87	243.87	140	458.41141916673	64.837594164949	0.15044385479884	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.62	33.97	36.795	140.97886087332	0.196	0.636	3.24	3.876	T	F	7.62	238.62	140	458.24803189816	64.603285534442	0.16976334184737	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	42.77	33.54	38.155	139.86392	0.2206	0.4706	3.18	3.6506	T	F	10.77	245.77	140	457.85198400329	64.036973262477	0.26709439909394	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	42.77	33.54	38.155	139.592992	0.2206	0.5106	3.51	4.0206	T	F	10.77	244.77	140	457.75557579574	63.899470430011	0.26709439909394	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 03:59:18	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	43	34.26	38.63	139.56226933333	0.2053	0.4653	3.43	3.8953	T	F	11	240	140	457.74463911853	63.88388061055	0.27515996168263	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	46.8	34.2	40.5	138.89971372226	0.1243	0.4343	3.34	3.7743	T	F	14.8	256.8	140	457.50857430778	63.54780999683	0.42265130636871	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	46.8	34.2	40.5	140.11034	0.1243	0.4843	3.4	3.8843	T	F	14.8	261.8	140	457.93961358199	64.162074958441	0.42265130636871	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	45.22	35.1	40.16	140.334692	0.1061	0.4561	3.62	4.0761	T	F	13.22	255.22	140	458.01934785862	64.27600411178	0.35855385915619	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	46.32	36.39	41.355	139.10608476372	0.1099	0.4499	3.36	3.8099	T	F	14.32	261.32	140	457.58214574448	63.652460752295	0.40287455097518	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-15 07:56:28	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	46.36	36.39	41.375	139.18020818634	0.1099	0.5199	3.61	4.1299	T	F	14.36	259.36	140	457.60856139034	63.690054842157	0.40451389813234	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.41	34.66	37.035	140.1058050849	0.1168	1.0668	3.75	4.8168	T	F	7.41	248.41	140	457.93800141319	64.159772366965	0.16420046371941	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	46.31	35.45	40.88	140.06647755218	0.102	1.102	3.52	4.622	T	F	14.31	254.31	140	457.92401964027	64.139804417546	0.4024649795592	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	46.31	35.45	40.88	140.22177123554	0.102	1.102	3.59	4.692	T	F	14.31	263.31	140	457.97922171179	64.218657657502	0.4024649795592	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	45.15	35.24	40.195	140.1930556895	0.1257	0.9757	3.57	4.5457	T	F	13.15	259.15	140	457.96901586966	64.204075745882	0.3557899248935	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.16	36.21	37.685	139.38186559468	0.0868	0.4968	3.68	4.1768	T	F	7.16	253.16	140	457.68040164225	63.792348227021	0.1577335493452	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-14 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	39.16	36.21	37.685	139.51036402007	0.0868	0.4968	3.68	4.1768	T	F	7.16	253.16	140	457.72615988832	63.857543187529	0.1577335493452	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	42.88	34.72	38.8	140.13286210091	0.1266	0.6566	3.91	4.5666	T	F	10.88	261.88	140	457.94761994593	64.173510675323	0.27093692858159	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 23:56:50	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	43.14	34	38.57	143.26792550119	0.2791	1.2591	3.67	4.9291	T	F	11.14	258.14	140	459.05764383098	65.768236317129	0.28012739689225	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	43.14	36.31	39.725	142.867876	0.2005	1.1805	3.69	4.8705	T	F	11.14	258.14	140	458.91649083759	65.56442430734	0.28012739689225	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	40.7	34.66	37.68	143.18576266667	0.1463	1.0963	3.59	4.6863	T	F	8.7	250.7	140	459.02866529617	65.726369526294	0.20024507554935	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	38.55	34.88	36.715	143.549132	0.0668	1.3468	3.41	4.7568	T	F	6.55	240.55	140	459.15677858962	65.911557018456	0.14266390521903	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	38.55	34.88	36.715	143.73853070727	0.0473	1.3273	3.52	4.8473	T	F	6.55	236.55	140	459.22350811587	66.008112322815	0.14266390521903	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 03:56:46	FORECAST	2020	233	-53	38.06	35.98	37.02	143.47653990026	0.0141	0.4141	3.85	4.2641	T	F	6.06	249.06	140	459.13119421013	65.874555105546	0.13128511972079	86	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L