Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 18, 2020

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DAY 231 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/19/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.22°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.27°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.75°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.325 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 244 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.75 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.94 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 138 in SWE DAY: 138 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.19 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 63.06 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -55 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-19 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	231	-55	44.22002	35.27006	39.74504	138.22314875	0	0.75	3.19	3.94	T	F	12.22002	244.22002	138	456.19422596281	63.056602354149	0.32475736433364	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-54	38.28	38.28	38.28	138.96566933333	0.0039	0.7539	3.19	3.9439	T	F	6.28	238.28	139	456.99767893492	63.506988336971	0.15970417442404	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	231	-54	46.71	37.72	42.215	139.25964933333	0.2681	1.0181	3.19	4.2081	T	F	14.71	246.71	139	457.10285272236	63.655982979382	0.40997167223026	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-54	43.6	38.18	40.89	139.123584	0.4443	1.1943	3.19	4.3843	T	F	11.6	243.6	139	457.05418398137	63.587016157683	0.30470438660021	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-54	42.91	34.36	38.635	139.02242358333	0.471	1.221	3.19	4.411	T	F	10.91	242.91	139	457.01798935706	63.535748501601	0.28305990999896	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-17 23:56:20	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	48.66	37.02	42.84	139.80772	0.5193	1.2193	3.19	4.4093	T	F	16.66	248.66	138	456.76341870242	63.859052148191	0.4800651727344	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-17 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	43.53	35.43	39.48	141.243468	0.347	1.047	3.19	4.237	T	F	11.53	243.53	138	457.27717821735	64.587414488672	0.30247534585617	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-17 16:01:53	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	44.84	35.25	40.045	141.158188	0.3565	1.0565	3.19	4.2465	T	F	12.84	244.84	138	457.24671443989	64.544117679289	0.34532982581987	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	45.03	36.51	40.77	140.42800533333	0.3955	1.0955	3.19	4.2855	T	F	13.03	245.03	138	456.98560780074	64.173577369499	0.35173061873994	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	46.35	36.68	41.515	140.443804	0.2862	1.0062	3.19	4.1962	T	F	14.35	240.35	138	456.99126238644	64.181591284314	0.39727346922048	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	46.05	36.33	41.19	140.28794775	0.2986	1.0286	3.19	4.2186	T	F	14.05	242.05	138	456.93546911471	64.102539216286	0.38677355243558	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-16 23:56:31	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	44.74	36.36	40.55	141.05195333333	0.3224	1.2424	3.19	4.4324	T	F	12.74	249.74	138	457.20875599138	64.490188113688	0.34197852268506	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-16 19:56:40	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	45.33	36.56	40.945	142.09650666667	0.2397	1.2597	3.19	4.4497	T	F	13.33	251.33	138	457.58153839607	65.020738121241	0.36192257639907	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	38.35	35.74	37.045	142.24301333333	0.2965	1.2365	3.19	4.4265	T	F	6.35	244.35	138	457.63374496054	65.095202886205	0.16125980542546	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	39.73	35.94	37.835	141.27043866667	0.1536	1.0336	3.19	4.2236	T	F	7.73	245.73	138	457.28681132316	64.601108432104	0.19392717008905	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	40.28	36.01	38.145	141.01809733333	0.1251	1.3351	3.19	4.5251	T	F	8.28	245.28	138	457.19665683456	64.47300265397	0.20799585335448	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 03:59:18	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	39.65	35.87	37.76	141.13973066667	0.1067	1.2367	3.19	4.4267	T	F	7.65	238.65	138	457.2401202305	64.534747419327	0.1919301391614	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	43.89	35.03	39.46	140.68392	0.231	1.271	3.19	4.461	T	F	11.89	249.89	138	457.07717566855	64.303408815581	0.31401564770168	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	38.84	35.21	37.025	141.928444	0.2661	1.3261	3.23	4.5561	T	F	6.84	254.84	138	457.52162658053	64.935332556924	0.17242417894409	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	39.39	35.08	37.235	142.021596	0.2029	1.4829	3.23	4.7129	T	F	7.39	255.39	138	457.55483702813	64.982668212255	0.18552700801928	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	40.79	34.5	37.645	140.91538743038	0.2224	1.2424	3.23	4.4724	T	F	8.79	256.79	138	457.15994491413	64.420870755227	0.22156353089876	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-15 07:56:28	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.48	34.5	38.49	140.99421218634	0.2862	1.5462	3.24	4.7862	T	F	10.48	255.48	138	457.18812034672	64.460878849238	0.26995507856437	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	39.01	34.55	36.78	141.22105682712	0.5892	1.9792	3.25	5.2292	T	F	7.01	258.01	138	457.26917312269	64.576035882851	0.17640977699272	90	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	41.83	35.21	38.52	141.96849488551	0.7859	2.0859	3.11	5.1959	T	F	9.83	247.83	138	457.53590644071	64.955683993465	0.25073871975658	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	41.83	35.21	38.52	142.12378856887	0.7885	1.8885	3.38	5.2685	T	F	9.83	256.83	138	457.59126157173	65.034603710585	0.25073871975658	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.33	35.68	39.005	141.96349035617	0.6862	1.7662	3.38	5.1462	T	F	10.33	256.33	138	457.53412219056	64.953140943218	0.26545604757087	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	47.36	37.37	42.365	141.09615759468	0.2834	1.5034	3.35	4.8534	T	F	15.36	257.36	138	457.224551752	64.512627410159	0.43313095389817	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	47.36	37.37	42.365	141.22465602007	0.2834	1.5234	3.33	4.8534	T	F	15.36	257.36	138	457.27045875681	64.577863246071	0.43313095389817	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	45.42	35.86	40.64	141.75547810091	0.3848	1.6448	3.54	5.1848	T	F	13.42	262.42	138	457.45994012528	64.847452524473	0.36499974115269	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 23:56:50	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.77	34.91	38.84	144.55952363281	0.6682	1.7982	3.43	5.2282	T	F	10.77	260.77	138	458.45663934757	66.274273390385	0.27875990243763	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.77	34.91	38.84	144.17391733333	0.6682	1.7782	3.47	5.2482	T	F	10.77	260.77	138	458.31999603628	66.077789220748	0.27875990243763	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	38.4	33.49	35.945	144.44626666667	0.8118	1.8418	3.45	5.2918	T	F	6.4	253.4	138	458.41651952994	66.216554824427	0.16237698622711	90	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	38.69	33.12	35.905	144.35672266667	0.8953	1.8153	3.38	5.1953	T	F	6.69	250.69	138	458.38479155365	66.170926228928	0.16895544747672	90	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	38.69	33.12	35.905	144.42968137394	0.8953	1.8253	3.48	5.3053	T	F	6.69	246.69	138	458.41064343531	66.208103169785	0.16895544747672	90	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 03:56:45	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.47	33.87	38.17	144.2435132336	0.2298	1.2298	3.74	4.9698	T	F	10.47	256.47	138	458.34466791348	66.113245171726	0.26965396153257	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 23:59:21	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	44.57	35.82	40.195	143.905996	0.2979	1.4079	3.74	5.1479	T	F	12.57	261.57	138	458.22497669831	65.941321663846	0.33630988055441	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	44.57	35.82	40.195	144.17481558294	0.2979	1.4079	3.72	5.1279	T	F	12.57	261.57	138	458.32031449523	66.078246820265	0.33630988055441	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	43.49	36.46	39.975	143.78671333333	0.2801	1.2501	3.62	4.8701	T	F	11.49	261.49	138	458.18265183139	65.880577613187	0.30120489682757	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.63	32.67	37.65	143.3297	0.2143	0.9943	3.74	4.7343	T	F	10.63	266.63	138	458.02037182601	65.64792248771	0.27449190402793	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.63	32.67	37.65	143.16449733333	0.2143	0.9943	3.95	4.9443	T	F	10.63	266.63	138	457.96166395105	65.563851417489	0.27449190402793	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	42.15	33.5	37.825	142.8626895	0.2465	0.8965	3.81	4.7065	T	F	10.15	268.15	138	457.8543472278	65.41030344423	0.26010782393631	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	40.87	34.92	37.895	144.72946	0.4514	1.3514	3.81	5.1614	T	F	8.87	259.87	138	458.51681546475	66.360891103132	0.22373668263565	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	40.87	35.37	38.12	146.12311466667	0.4234	1.3234	4.17	5.4934	T	F	8.87	274.87	138	459.0093433499	67.071874911389	0.22373668263565	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	41.98	34.38	38.18	146.20385733333	0.4118	1.2918	4.22	5.5118	T	F	9.98	272.98	138	459.03782501027	67.113100678405	0.25510814925376	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	35.91	33.3	34.605	145.64702266667	0.1067	1.3667	4.18	5.5467	T	F	3.91	260.91	138	458.84128494059	66.828867028145	0.11279629104178	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	36.28	33.71	34.995	145.900184	0.1053	1.2453	4.26	5.5053	T	F	4.28	251.28	138	458.93067509313	66.958069939331	0.11939022475789	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	231	-55	35.77	33.23	34.5	146.08297433333	0	1.27	4.25	5.52	T	F	3.77	244.77	138	458.99518183016	67.051381366419	0.11037016523115	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L