Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 17, 2020

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DAY 230 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.87°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.19°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.03°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.327 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 227 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.21 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.75 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.94 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 140 in SWE DAY: 137 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.27 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 63.84 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -56 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-18 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	230	-56	45.87008	34.19006	40.03007	139.91933958333	0.21000000000004	0.75000000000004	3.19	3.94	T	F	13.87008	226.87008	137	456.26624020539	63.840471003709	0.32673630968227	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-55	46.02	36.3	41.16	141.33634666667	0.1599	0.6999	3.19	3.8899	T	F	14.02	227.02	138	457.3103488894	64.634574004886	0.33180139088425	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-55	40.33	36.45	38.39	141.42080666667	0.1795	0.7195	3.19	3.9095	T	F	8.33	221.33	138	457.3405061274	64.677463297878	0.16693061715968	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-55	42.47	36.32	39.395	141.24051441667	0.186	0.726	3.19	3.916	T	F	10.47	223.47	138	457.27612324668	64.585914877821	0.22170195219101	86	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-16 23:56:31	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.22	37.5	41.86	141.93476533333	0.3648	0.9248	3.19	4.1148	T	F	14.22	232.22	137	456.98943644913	64.86268842222	0.33860642152458	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 19:56:39	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.52	35.87	41.195	143.02693333333	0.4636	1.0236	3.19	4.2136	T	F	14.52	232.52	137	457.37979569096	65.417629546304	0.3489128570791	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.01	37.59	42.3	142.917928	0.3757	0.9357	3.19	4.1257	T	F	15.01	233.01	137	457.34088397705	65.362211527688	0.36598575109373	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.6	38.22	42.41	142.109572	0.3171	0.8771	3.19	4.0671	T	F	14.6	232.6	137	457.05198811037	64.951462412114	0.35168054786528	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.93	37.91	42.42	141.91228	0.5913	1.2113	3.19	4.4013	T	F	14.93	231.93	137	456.98138842999	64.851270749666	0.36317909351854	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-16 03:59:18	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.23	37.62	41.925	141.95535733333	0.5273	1.1273	3.19	4.3173	T	F	14.23	226.23	137	456.99680639742	64.873144952337	0.33894808254759	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.51	36.85	42.18	141.46860533333	0.577	1.037	3.19	4.227	T	F	15.51	232.51	137	456.82249298874	64.626040968013	0.38368463435443	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.79	37.15	42.47	142.580344	0.5823	1.1023	3.19	4.2923	T	F	15.79	242.79	137	457.22030799779	65.190628798111	0.3937057451116	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.81	37.3	42.055	142.680712	0.6547	1.3247	3.19	4.5147	T	F	14.81	242.81	137	457.25616756456	65.241635554503	0.35898288310546	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.09	38.04	42.565	141.65910133333	0.5385	1.0585	3.19	4.2485	T	F	15.09	243.09	137	456.89073821681	64.722731383317	0.36879959541709	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 07:56:28	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	48.52	38.27	43.395	141.83178230406	0.6959	1.3059	3.19	4.4959	T	F	16.52	239.52	137	456.95257268039	64.810397811686	0.42014923072306	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.52	38.27	42.895	141.3481875	0.7924	1.4524	3.19	4.6424	T	F	15.52	245.52	137	456.77933623986	64.564931264957	0.38404123925934	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	45.91	37.59	41.75	142.69501488551	0.8776	1.3576	3.05	4.4076	T	F	13.91	232.91	137	457.26127696784	65.248904723492	0.32808195092894	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.67	37.2	41.935	142.83636856887	0.6692	1.1892	3.29	4.4792	T	F	14.67	241.67	137	457.31176260003	65.320751473619	0.35410874549781	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.78	37.53	42.155	142.72516102284	0.6674	1.1674	3.29	4.4574	T	F	14.78	240.78	137	457.27204542977	65.264226315205	0.35793645943474	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	41.29	37.74	39.515	142.11175492802	0.6888	1.2788	3.29	4.5688	T	F	9.29	237.29	137	457.05276905933	64.952571105731	0.19033078295943	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-14 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	41.59	37.74	39.665	142.2402533534	0.6964	1.2764	3.29	4.5664	T	F	9.59	236.59	137	457.09873212246	65.017839464618	0.19803693409833	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	48.52	36.84	42.68	142.62161676758	0.8238	1.2838	3.52	4.8038	T	F	16.52	243.52	137	457.23505507498	65.211602797606	0.42014923072306	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 23:56:50	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.52	37.01	41.765	145.27404696717	0.792	1.162	3.4	4.562	T	F	14.52	244.52	137	458.17955390436	66.5615980333	0.3489128570791	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.52	37.01	41.765	144.94471733333	0.8149	1.1549	3.43	4.5849	T	F	14.52	244.52	137	458.06262923588	66.393758315558	0.3489128570791	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.22	36.88	41.55	144.910824	0.5765	1.0665	3.41	4.4765	T	F	14.22	242.22	137	458.05059024894	66.37648846666	0.33860642152458	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.84	38.56	43.2	144.794712	0.7595	0.9595	3.34	4.2995	T	F	15.84	238.84	137	458.00933915181	66.317330355797	0.39550287144425	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.84	38.56	43.2	144.86767070727	0.7595	0.9595	3.45	4.4095	T	F	15.84	234.84	137	458.03526060403	66.354501305505	0.39550287144425	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 03:56:45	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	44.35	36.33	40.34	144.93154790026	0.8344	1.0444	3.7	4.7444	T	F	12.35	241.35	137	458.05795154725	66.387047945767	0.27729850415643	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 23:59:21	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.39	35.56	40.975	144.75999866667	0.6973	1.1673	3.68	4.8473	T	F	14.39	244.39	137	457.99700418732	66.299645715494	0.34443250321082	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	46.39	35.56	40.975	145.02881824961	0.6973	1.1473	3.68	4.8273	T	F	14.39	244.39	137	458.09249759115	66.436613574654	0.34443250321082	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	45.77	37.07	41.42	144.72391866667	0.5316	1.0216	3.57	4.5916	T	F	13.77	244.77	137	457.98418244159	66.281265570297	0.32337268491297	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.72	35.53	41.625	143.936008	0.5961	0.8161	3.7	4.5161	T	F	15.72	250.72	137	457.70388950166	65.880070700941	0.39119357406999	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.72	35.53	41.625	143.77080533333	0.5961	0.8061	3.92	4.7261	T	F	15.72	250.72	137	457.64504879818	65.795997222526	0.39119357406999	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	47.46	36.13	41.795	143.53875216667	0.4516	0.6716	3.79	4.4616	T	F	15.46	253.46	137	457.56235605226	65.677929626181	0.38190309228684	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	45.94	36.17	41.055	145.40453866667	0.4949	0.9249	3.79	4.7149	T	F	13.94	245.94	137	458.22585642098	66.62811925803	0.32909467507834	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	45.94	36.17	41.055	146.73226533333	0.4949	0.9149	4.16	5.0749	T	F	13.94	260.94	137	458.69610371434	67.305518397579	0.32909467507834	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	45.79	36.48	41.135	146.57313066667	0.4969	0.8869	4.21	5.0969	T	F	13.79	257.79	137	458.63982584058	67.224275121869	0.32404373109554	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	44.6	33.72	39.16	145.793584	0.3805	1.3005	4.14	5.4405	T	F	12.6	251.6	137	458.36381076554	66.826502747406	0.28517354962002	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	44.44	33.49	38.965	146.03165733333	0.3549	1.1849	4.22	5.4049	T	F	12.44	242.44	137	458.44816366666	66.947945141666	0.28012125231067	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	45.03	32.9	38.965	146.136329	0.4367	1.3167	4.2	5.5167	T	F	13.03	236.03	137	458.48523424511	67.001349033285	0.29896236141335	86	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	37.37	31.51	34.44	149.41530708682	1.0525	1.4725	3.77	5.2425	T	F	5.37	227.37	137	459.64154276622	68.677482262274	0.10692581420997	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	37.37	31.51	34.44	151.53074414515	1.0359	1.4559	3.98	5.4359	T	F	5.37	243.37	137	460.38244222214	69.762094061283	0.10692581420997	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 15:56:45	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	40.8	34.25	37.525	150.64115176131	1.0737	1.2537	4.04	5.2937	T	F	8.8	252.8	137	460.07136108754	69.305679726619	0.17814593706395	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	36.64	32.26	34.45	149.52922565999	0.3043	1.3343	4.03	5.3643	T	F	4.64	236.64	137	459.68154250261	68.735825100607	0.094874607874742	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	36.64	34.77	35.705	149.12369950493	0.2485	1.2785	3.97	5.2485	T	F	4.64	236.64	137	459.53909910721	68.52817052603	0.094874607874742	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	230	-56	39.5	38.98	39.24	146.45273241667	0.1849	1.3049	3.77	5.0749	T	F	7.5	264.5	137	458.59723195765	67.162817698918	0.14826032993355	86	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L