Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 30, 2020

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DAY 91 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/31/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.42°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.02°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.431 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 13 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.81 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.21 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.36 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.57 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 94 in SWE DAY: 2 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.01 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 31.18 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 171 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-31 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	91	171	29.42006	27.01994	28.22	93.918775416667	1.81	2.21	9.36	11.57	T	T	-2.57994	13.42006	2	332.00911909529	31.181889892596	0.43107961162705	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-31 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	91	171	29.42006	27.01994	28.22	93.918775416667	1.81	2.21	9.36	11.57	T	T	-2.57994	13.42006	2	332.00911909529	31.181889892596	0.43107961162705	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-30 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	91	171	30.42	27.14	28.78	84.284626800983	0.8599	1.2599	9.36	10.6199	T	T	-1.58	14.42	2	325.42230979656	27.428097933917	0.44473586772697	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-30 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	31.57	26.65	29.11	83.824479871427	1.0937	1.4937	9.36	10.8537	T	T	-0.43	15.57	2	325.10365899537	27.251645119585	0.46052199749392	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-30 03:01:29	FORECAST	2021	91	171	32.07	26.16	29.115	83.944931265464	1.4319	1.8319	9.36	11.1919	T	T	0.07	16.07	2	325.18710732624	27.297809372917	0.46740648136648	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-29 22:57:17	FORECAST	2021	91	171	32.57	27.59	30.08	110.26567959021	1.7822	2.0122	9.36	11.3722	T	T	0.57	24.57	2	342.8231516452	37.801627795415	0.47430072873788	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-29 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.91	27.08	30.495	109.59312804739	1.6708	1.9008	9.36	11.2608	T	T	1.91	25.91	2	342.38703633467	37.523266314792	0.49280959948795	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-29 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.36	26.79	30.075	109.73939333704	1.7631	1.9931	9.36	11.3531	T	T	1.36	25.36	2	342.48194530478	37.583760906635	0.48520852996525	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-29 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	32.33	26.62	29.475	110.81572634609	1.7723	2.0023	9.36	11.3623	T	T	0.33	24.33	2	343.1792754637	38.029660677434	0.47099040150019	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-29 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	32.19	26.35	29.27	111.26570802707	2.0162	2.2462	9.36	11.6062	T	T	0.19	19.19	2	343.47024308671	38.216459783271	0.46906028777313	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-29 02:57:37	FORECAST	2021	91	171	32.27	26.37	29.32	111.3372096589	2.0081	2.2081	9.36	11.5681	T	T	0.27	24.27	2	343.51644693368	38.246162673534	0.47016312379941	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-28 22:57:30	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.12	27.44	30.78	86.854306950427	2.1779	2.3479	9.36	11.7079	T	T	2.12	28.12	2	327.1949769149	28.418292957605	0.49571266513133	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-28 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.06	26.9	30.48	87.121088764	2.1526	2.2726	9.36	11.6326	T	T	2.06	28.06	2	327.3783514878	28.52155841938	0.49488318791121	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-28 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.17	27.39	30.28	87.009360991949	1.9973	2.1373	9.36	11.4973	T	T	1.17	27.17	2	327.30156964947	28.478300426862	0.48258381436267	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-28 10:59:33	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.48	26.41	30.445	88.221659543317	2.1166	2.2266	9.36	11.5866	T	T	2.48	28.48	2	328.13352515367	28.948484140855	0.5006897921919	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-28 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.43	26.76	30.595	88.144729870876	1.9937	2.0437	9.36	11.4037	T	T	2.43	30.43	2	328.08080726503	28.918594132195	0.49999851338044	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-28 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.72	27.11	30.915	87.910918790308	1.9174	1.9674	9.36	11.3274	T	T	2.72	28.72	2	327.92051941265	28.827794151761	0.50400786507221	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-27 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.42	26.55	30.485	86.06764349588	1.6124	1.6324	9.2	10.8324	T	T	2.42	33.42	2	326.65353363782	28.114299879809	0.49986025754948	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-27 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	32.97	26.51	29.74	86.363383259789	1.2747	1.2947	9.2	10.4947	T	T	0.97	29.97	2	326.85721177832	28.228494652037	0.47982177321601	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-27 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.44	28.45	30.945	85.060251796322	1.4235	1.4435	9.2	10.6435	T	T	1.44	32.44	2	325.95858625561	27.726119422075	0.48631387170694	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-27 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.86	26.95	30.405	85.719956702733	1.2741	1.2941	9.2	10.4941	T	T	1.86	32.86	2	326.41388344526	27.980183956098	0.49211844375456	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.49	28.65	31.07	84.994374085235	1.0739	1.0739	9.2	10.2739	T	T	1.49	30.49	2	325.9130786585	27.700778126771	0.48700476423374	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-27 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	91	171	36.63	28.15	32.39	83.711321578236	0.7822	0.7822	9.22	10.0022	T	T	4.63	26.63	2	325.02524003867	27.20829238992	0.53038535873913	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-26 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	37.77	29.39	33.58	79.52007859266	0.5594	0.5594	9	9.5594	T	T	5.77	33.77	2	322.10476384437	25.613796135975	0.54607306532099	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-26 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	37.77	29.39	33.58	79.550401429883	0.5829	0.5829	9.03	9.6129	T	T	5.77	34.77	2	322.12600477727	25.625252991036	0.54607306532099	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-26 14:59:35	FORECAST	2021	91	171	37.06	29	33.03	79.963137937928	0.7588	0.7588	9.04	9.7988	T	T	5.06	34.06	2	322.41496115631	25.781312012194	0.53630952254445	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	35.45	29.83	32.64	81.67025042087	1.4366	1.4366	9.01	10.4466	T	T	3.45	28.45	2	323.60689636375	26.429056263947	0.51409767283828	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-26 06:57:34	FORECAST	2021	91	171	35.45	29.83	32.64	81.416982160621	1.4366	1.4366	9.18	10.6166	T	T	3.45	34.45	2	323.43038646292	26.332726004855	0.51409767283828	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.88	27.99	31.435	82.449730894723	1.4092	1.4092	9.33	10.7392	T	T	2.88	32.88	2	324.14942665471	26.726032997359	0.50621977380173	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-25 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.89	28.7	31.295	185.01608485798	1.3689	1.3989	10.1	11.4989	T	T	1.89	29.89	2	386.93360899049	71.58894143539	0.49253313448798	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-25 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.89	28.7	31.295	184.99507206594	1.3689	1.3989	10.1	11.4989	T	T	1.89	27.89	2	386.92234888803	71.578727816463	0.49253313448798	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-25 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	36.45	28.33	32.39	183.29456292706	1.246	1.276	10.07	11.346	T	T	4.45	28.45	2	386.00910368445	70.753369945708	0.52790340145291	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-25 10:57:34	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.48	28.11	30.795	186.50067728202	0.9559	0.9559	10.12	11.0759	T	T	1.48	20.48	2	387.72763669284	72.311466844171	0.48686658254171	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-25 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	33.48	28.11	30.795	186.73678835058	0.9559	0.9559	10.26	11.2159	T	T	1.48	29.48	2	387.85364391846	72.426543815403	0.48686658254171	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	35.62	23.94	29.78	184.32441924154	0.2289	0.2389	10.22	10.4589	T	T	3.62	28.62	2	386.56265100554	71.252936147066	0.5164462962027	92	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-24 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	38.39	28.04	33.215	116.2037975442	0.317	0.337	10.1	10.437	T	T	6.39	40.39	2	346.64156115529	40.281065792895	0.55457646875164	92	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-24 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	38.39	28.04	33.215	116.78072916466	0.317	0.337	10.16	10.497	T	T	6.39	38.39	2	347.00948721208	40.524020943681	0.55457646875164	92	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	38.33	29.26	33.795	118.20133148468	0.9589	0.9689	10.33	11.2989	T	T	6.33	36.33	2	347.9131516091	41.123797761226	0.55375459137594	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	36.06	25.76	30.91	118.80168601743	1.0566	1.2266	10.32	11.5466	T	T	4.06	21.06	2	348.29406618028	41.377922292086	0.52252223695512	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	36.06	25.76	30.91	118.35524750708	1.0566	1.2266	10.3	11.5266	T	T	4.06	33.06	2	348.01086404033	41.188911948645	0.52252223695512	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	37.29	25.15	31.22	120.26666444729	1.1635	1.2735	10.43	11.7035	T	T	5.29	30.29	2	349.22113524253	41.999661090116	0.53947504383057	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	36.03	27.46	31.745	89.351301836679	2.1285	2.4085	9.96	12.3685	T	T	4.03	29.03	2	328.90645437685	29.388219881058	0.52210811851122	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-23 18:57:47	FORECAST	2021	91	171	36.03	27.46	31.745	88.164509457102	1.9564	2.2364	9.92	12.1564	T	T	4.03	28.03	2	328.09436268097	28.926278541408	0.52210811851122	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-23 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	91	171	34.8	32.59	33.695	83.550441948548	1.4647	1.5647	10.06	11.6247	T	T	2.8	27.8	2	324.91371127753	27.146684172381	0.50511383908952	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	91	171	32.36	29.41	30.885	83.220520273166	0.7694	0.9094	10.16	11.0694	T	T	0.36	25.36	2	324.68485260094	27.020442358266	0.4714040875241	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-23 06:57:55	FORECAST	2021	91	171	31.18	29.71	30.445	84.059271949702	0.1871	0.1871	10.37	10.5571	T	T	-0.82	25.18	2	325.26629856014	27.34164824674	0.45516019685915	92	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	91	171	31.18	30.71	30.945	85.379914822172	0.0618	0.0618	10.35	10.4118	T	T	-0.82	21.18	2	326.17929786327	27.849160668322	0.45516019685915	92	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L