Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 29, 2020

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DAY 90 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/30/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.43°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.21°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.82°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.364 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 12 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.40 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.76 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 82 in SWE DAY: 3 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.89 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 26.65 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 170 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-30 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	90	170	29.42996	26.20994	27.81995	82.02247375	0.39999999999998	0.56999999999998	9.19	9.76	T	T	-2.57004	12.42996	3	324.89158778402	26.648411730611	0.36359903386588	93	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-30 03:01:29	OBSERVATION	2021	90	170	29.42996	26.20994	27.81995	82.02247375	0.39999999999998	0.56999999999998	9.19	9.76	T	T	-2.57004	12.42996	3	324.89158778402	26.648411730611	0.36359903386588	93	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-29 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.64	28.66	32.65	107.899796	0.2332	0.4032	9.19	9.5932	T	T	4.64	19.64	3	342.25897605978	36.929673696019	0.65467608844633	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-29 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	32.09	26.32	29.205	108.1587405	0.2269	0.3969	9.19	9.5869	T	T	0.090000000000003	15.09	3	342.42706074376	37.036479603162	0.47077468936711	93	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-29 02:57:37	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.12	26.02	31.57	108.00370583333	0.2017	0.3717	9.19	9.5617	T	T	5.12	20.12	3	342.32643874176	36.972523988838	0.6728139755534	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-28 22:57:29	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.54	24.92	31.23	83.843216	0.1608	0.3408	9.19	9.5308	T	T	5.54	21.54	3	326.15125076133	27.345569766252	0.68835857433762	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-28 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.54	25.22	31.38	83.85322	0.1081	0.2881	9.19	9.4781	T	T	5.54	21.54	3	326.15815585279	27.349411597519	0.68835857433762	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-28 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.83	27.22	32.525	83.890296266088	0.1319	0.3119	9.19	9.5019	T	T	5.83	21.83	3	326.18374558705	27.36365105448	0.69890143142795	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-28 10:59:33	FORECAST	2021	90	170	38.25	26.68	32.465	83.704548657807	0.0959	0.2759	9.19	9.4659	T	T	6.25	22.25	3	326.05551990432	27.292330130978	0.7138785150094	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-28 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	38.57	26.96	32.765	84.038728952956	0.0437	0.2237	9.19	9.4137	T	T	6.57	23.57	3	326.28616847537	27.4206748736	0.72504692508562	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-28 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.85	27.14	32.495	84.036686564005	0.0447	0.2247	9.19	9.4147	T	T	5.85	21.85	3	326.28475942935	27.419890058776	0.69962257171861	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-27 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.62	26.36	31.99	82.735742777615	0.0143	0.0343	9.19	9.2243	T	T	5.62	26.62	3	325.38575026053	26.921031737056	0.69128289475658	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-27 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.44	25.66	31.55	82.772555538498	0.0162	0.0262	9.19	9.2162	T	T	5.44	25.44	3	325.41123035412	26.935119137337	0.68468643244665	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-27 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.87	26.24	32.055	82.73082712101	0.0171	0.0271	9.19	9.2171	T	T	5.87	26.87	3	325.38234768965	26.919150754941	0.70034293132431	93	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-12-27 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.59	25.94	31.765	82.650617292373	0.0152	0.0252	9.19	9.2152	T	T	5.59	26.59	3	325.3268212043	26.888462594301	0.69018768085419	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.46	26.88	32.17	82.70815191756	0.002	0.012	9.19	9.202	T	T	5.46	25.46	3	325.36665157889	26.910474447695	0.68542233619414	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-27 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.35	26.85	32.1	82.885440330624	0.0014	0.0314	9.19	9.2214	T	T	5.35	18.35	3	325.489349143	26.978328026646	0.68136583159504	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-26 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.98	26.12	31.55	78.885569294399	0.0038	0.0838	8.92	9.0038	T	T	4.98	23.98	3	322.70763946077	25.456975854515	0.66756338373284	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-26 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.58	24.81	31.195	78.914630693791	0.0015	0.1115	8.92	9.0315	T	T	5.58	24.58	3	322.72795229781	25.467957170145	0.68982223376507	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-26 14:59:35	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.68	25.83	31.755	79.028989146753	0.0027	0.1227	8.92	9.0427	T	T	5.68	24.68	3	322.80787004455	25.511179658237	0.69346822303062	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	34.37	23.8	29.085	79.953226064715	0.0031	0.0931	8.92	9.0131	T	T	2.37	21.37	3	323.4529083826	25.861103505203	0.56467925509605	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-26 06:57:34	FORECAST	2021	90	170	37.01	24.98	30.995	79.671182585946	0.0031	0.1131	9.07	9.1831	T	T	5.01	27.01	3	323.25622666892	25.754205856983	0.66869132472301	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.53	22.47	29.5	80.410653304649	0.0011	0.1311	9.2	9.3311	T	T	4.53	25.53	3	323.77159373413	26.034685373649	0.65046709525937	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-25 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.59	22.43	29.01	182.41272819079	0.0313	0.0913	10.04	10.1313	T	T	3.59	23.59	3	386.33942535767	70.473228587156	0.61379110501535	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-25 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.59	24.21	29.9	182.90070894423	0.0313	0.1113	10.02	10.1313	T	T	3.59	21.59	3	386.60148613681	70.709685893317	0.61379110501535	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-25 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.16	23.21	29.185	183.25689161008	0.0321	0.0821	10.02	10.1021	T	T	3.16	20.16	3	386.79256229471	70.882402664027	0.5966453443424	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-25 10:57:34	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.61	23.88	29.745	185.45426593693	0.0008	0.0208	10.1	10.1208	T	T	3.61	14.61	3	387.96754071503	71.950235470663	0.61458348317578	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-25 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.61	23.88	29.745	185.67051158136	0.0008	0.0208	10.24	10.2608	T	T	3.61	23.61	3	388.08281738254	72.055535239352	0.61458348317578	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.07	22.13	28.6	184.39348253335	0.009	0.069	10.16	10.229	T	T	3.07	21.07	3	387.40113811653	71.434244994691	0.59303185617535	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-24 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.53	23.11	29.32	116.40747601811	0.0178	0.0778	10.04	10.1178	T	T	3.53	29.53	3	347.72399180507	40.477672236969	0.61141113453177	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-24 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.53	23.11	29.32	116.98417499336	0.0178	0.0778	10.1	10.1778	T	T	3.53	27.53	3	348.09018520553	40.721043139556	0.61141113453177	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	35.95	23.97	29.96	118.06953401071	0.0122	0.0422	10.3	10.3422	T	T	3.95	25.95	3	348.77791546965	41.180045952728	0.62797828460215	93	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-12-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	34.22	20.66	27.44	117.372210334	0.1726	0.2026	10.29	10.4926	T	T	2.22	13.22	3	348.33627890234	40.884998994288	0.55855492749253	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	34.22	20.66	27.44	116.85381974682	0.1726	0.1926	10.28	10.4726	T	T	2.22	25.22	3	348.00745890005	40.666000872854	0.55855492749253	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	34.35	23.02	28.685	118.25877025233	0.1133	0.1233	10.42	10.5433	T	T	2.35	21.35	3	348.89762973095	41.260204635936	0.56386354076049	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.56	23.85	30.205	83.328553871999	0.2825	0.2925	9.95	10.2425	T	T	4.56	20.56	3	325.79577714147	27.148090966802	0.65161686372337	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-23 18:57:47	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.56	23.85	30.205	83.093260108056	0.2825	0.2925	9.91	10.2025	T	T	4.56	19.56	3	325.63310649254	27.057916417579	0.65161686372337	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-23 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.43	24.08	30.255	83.079293570714	0.0984	0.1684	9.99	10.1584	T	T	4.43	21.43	3	325.62344765185	27.052566000976	0.64662461081607	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	34.2	20.02	27.11	83.222542939832	0.1443	0.3143	9.99	10.3043	T	T	2.2	21.2	3	325.72249837943	27.107454607852	0.55773725870831	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-23 06:57:55	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.14	24.58	30.36	84.059271949702	0.0023	0.2123	10.16	10.3723	T	T	4.14	22.14	3	326.30034070125	27.428569076287	0.63539788535366	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	36.14	24.58	30.36	85.047139195486	0.0023	0.2123	10.14	10.3523	T	T	4.14	18.14	3	326.98097961517	27.808796887608	0.63539788535366	93	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	39.34	27.34	33.34	85.114697568152	0.0011	0.3711	10.06	10.4311	T	T	7.34	31.34	3	327.02746486094	27.834843768119	0.75100961229429	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	39.34	27.34	33.34	84.53281729308	0.0011	0.3711	10.15	10.5211	T	T	7.34	32.34	3	326.62682578788	27.610685787345	0.75100961229429	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-22 14:57:51	FORECAST	2021	90	170	40.41	28.06	34.235	84.090196114246	0.0005	0.6305	9.9	10.5305	T	T	8.41	32.41	3	326.32167330451	27.440453504506	0.78480662058823	93	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	90	170	32.77	29.19	30.98	85.989872433657	0.0009	0.2709	10.62	10.8909	T	T	0.77	23.77	3	327.62893062052	28.172769949634	0.49884822929404	93	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	31.1	29.33	30.215	87.178214476273	0.0004	0.2704	10.51	10.7804	T	T	-0.9	15.1	3	328.44348384853	28.633116478281	0.43019859754046	93	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	90	170	30.43	28.21	29.32	92.188684580472	0	0.44	11.11	11.55	T	T	-1.57	17.43	3	331.85101840117	30.592908863094	0.4031242838083	93	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L