MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 14, 2020

[ Friday, November 13, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 15, 2020 ]

DAY 45 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/15/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.188
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 131

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 41 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-15 07:00:07OBSERVATION20214512528.7000621.7700625.2350641.4582504166671.333.127.3110.43TT-3.29994130.7000648342.83058189987 14.2131561148960.1879760785042987 14151215WETL
2020-11-15 03:00:07OBSERVATION20214512528.7000621.7700625.2350641.4582504166671.333.127.3110.43TT-3.29994130.7000648342.83058189987 14.2131561148960.1879760785042987 14151215WETL
2020-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20214512531.7824.4328.10537.3856780067460.75672.54677.319.8567TT-0.22133.7848340.1783646053412.7177988039970.281820994758998724151217.5WETL
2020-11-14 07:00:07FORECAST20214512531.6824.8328.25539.1323975987490.84032.63037.319.9403TT-0.32133.6848341.3192571251313.356640877930.278455112079998724151217.5WETL
2020-11-14 03:00:07FORECAST20214512530.9323.2527.0939.6253892818040.95052.74057.3110.0505TT-1.07132.9348341.6403461670713.537631711240.253852885285998724151217.5WETL
2020-11-13 23:00:03FORECAST20214512530.9522.526.72526.9262195662551.2222.3327.319.642TT-1.05134.9548333.239705970538.97288549115680.254493838634218724152235WETL
2020-11-13 18:59:52FORECAST20214512535.3223.2629.2926.2444881610891.30082.41087.319.7208TT3.32139.3248332.78102378398.73366763893140.411540536609538724152235WETL
2020-11-13 15:00:03FORECAST20214512534.3924.5929.4926.3569587164281.34252.45257.319.7625TT2.39138.3948332.856750886068.77309164158830.375794940231458724152235WETL
2020-11-13 11:00:04FORECAST20214512534.1223.0828.629.6071659914921.1872.2977.319.607TT2.12138.1248335.035815408749.91946099990160.365599080467468724152235WETL
2020-11-13 07:00:07FORECAST20214512533.8723.128.48530.3064049465231.10562.57567.319.8856TT1.87141.8748335.5022654523610.1678675172750.356242182322858724151217.5WETL
2020-11-13 03:00:07FORECAST20214512534.1222.9928.55533.1160173501441.11343.38347.3110.6934TT2.12141.1248337.3681788281411.1722904634590.365599080467468724151217.5WETL
2020-11-12 23:00:05FORECAST20214512532.9323.2928.1136.7520884111641.16324.45327.3111.7632TT0.93146.9348339.7632747324912.4870099118350.32186748222428724151217.5WETL
2020-11-12 19:00:05FORECAST20214512534.8523.4929.1735.5658511965681.1364.4067.3111.716TT2.85149.8548338.9843248867712.0562660568920.393363385057168724151217.5WETL
2020-11-12 15:00:05FORECAST20214512534.5524.5129.5335.6711990436371.20044.39047.3111.7004TT2.55150.5548339.0535971890212.0944483517910.381878622897958724151217.5WETL
2020-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST2021451253324.0628.5338.1407634220361.13854.36857.3111.6785TT114948340.6721796000512.9934970065950.324379883730248724151217.5WETL
2020-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20214512533.2423.8728.55538.4946859198121.10774.29777.3111.6077TT1.24146.2448340.9033140240613.1229660023790.333054069170548724151217.5WETL
2020-11-12 03:00:03FORECAST20214512533.3223.7528.53537.3243131097361.21794.27797.3111.5879TT1.32148.3248340.1381912180812.6954243496030.335965709229698724151217.5WETL
2020-11-11 22:59:55FORECAST20214512532.8223.6128.21534.0876242767171.02154.44157.3211.7615TT0.82155.8248338.0103477897311.5219697370990.31793584720768724151217.5WETL
2020-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20214512528.3123.692634.4042782464720.81634.00637.3211.3263TT-3.69147.3148338.219293279711.636190674320.177641995954048714151215WETL
2020-11-11 15:00:03FORECAST20214512531.1319.5325.3337.5015128454040.99164.15167.3211.4716TT-0.87151.1348340.2541804374112.7600465183760.260300300342728724151217.5WETL
2020-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20214512529.6821.5325.60540.1972305221311.1854.5557.3211.875TT-2.32148.6848342.0122871731113.7479467488990.215527075288158714151215WETL
2020-11-11 07:00:04FORECAST20214512529.6819.0724.37541.8565774069951.33384.65387.3311.9838TT-2.32149.6848343.0885180197914.3605111119470.215527075288158714151215WETL
2020-11-11 03:00:02FORECAST20214512528.6520.0324.3438.2190996693380.88184.07187.3311.4018TT-3.35147.6548340.7233561743413.0221399092980.18662947529868714151215WETL
2020-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20214512525.0816.0720.57534.9122546225031.30944.45946.5310.9894TT-6.92148.0848338.5541328455911.8196880894060.106092909433658714151215WETL
2020-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20214512525.0816.0720.57535.6191271408841.42394.69396.5411.2339TT-6.92146.0848339.0193592180912.075573659210.106092909433658714151215WETL
2020-11-10 15:00:04FORECAST20214512526.0216.5621.2937.0193999063651.47524.78526.5411.3252TT-5.98142.0248339.9384826467512.5843186326630.124355157219598714151215WETL
2020-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20214512527.6417.9922.81539.1231806047891.37644.50646.5711.0764TT-4.36147.6448341.3132502007913.3532599304130.16074450445828714151215WETL
2020-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20214512527.6417.9922.81539.3506804311551.37644.37646.8511.2264TT-4.36150.6448341.461475910813.4367414181160.16074450445828714151215WETL
2020-11-10 03:00:05FORECAST20214512532.8717.325.08546.3921256004651.60414.81417.1611.9741TT0.87153.8748346.0071766221216.0520083965160.319720447292698724151217.5WETL
2020-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20214512532.8517.0624.95548.1913403952761.87635.02637.3612.3863TT0.85158.8548347.1557018479716.7298985979160.319006103686788724151217.5WETL
2020-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8842.1501017779661.6084.5387.2611.798TT-4.87155.1348343.2784224043214.4692204425220.148608281874198714151215WETL
2020-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8842.3564803288631.6084.5087.2411.748TT-4.87154.1348343.4118604448714.5457177116310.148608281874198714151215WETL
2020-11-09 13:58:06FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8842.7742084782861.6084.5687.2111.778TT-4.87153.1348343.6817366695814.7007142544840.148608281874198714151215WETL
2020-11-09 13:57:16FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8801.6084.5687.2111.778TT-4.87153.1348314.5055645733600.148608281874198714155275WETL
2020-11-09 13:56:20FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8801.6084.5687.2111.778TT-4.87153.1348314.5055645733600.148608281874198714155275WETL
2020-11-09 13:54:44FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8801.6084.5687.2111.778TT-4.87153.1348314.5055645733600.148608281874198714155275WETL
2020-11-09 13:53:55FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8801.6084.5687.2111.778TT-4.87153.1348314.5055645733600.148608281874198714155275WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:33FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8801.6084.5687.2111.778TT-4.87153.1348314.5055645733600.148608281874198714155275WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:03FORECAST20214512527.1320.6323.8801.6084.5687.2111.778TT-4.87153.1348314.5055645733600.148608281874198714155275WETL
2020-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20214512532.3117.925.10501.92624.72627.2812.0062TT0.31163.3148314.5055645733600.299979583230978724155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20214512532.3117.925.10501.92624.77627.4412.2162TT0.31165.3148314.5055645733600.299979583230978724155287.5WETL
2020-11-09 02:58:03FORECAST20214512528.1617.9123.03501.92974.94977.4312.3797TT-3.84161.1648314.5055645733600.173765046231288714155275WETL
2020-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20214512530.1323.0226.57501.19664.82667.1311.9566TT-1.87170.1348314.5055645733600.228923748597818714155275WETL
2020-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20214512530.1323.0226.57501.19664.81667.0511.8666TT-1.87171.1348314.5055645733600.228923748597818714155275WETL
2020-11-08 14:57:59FORECAST20214512526.0320.4723.2501.36154.95157.1912.1415TT-5.97171.0348314.5055645733600.124560546753088714155275WETL
2020-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20214512529.7919.4224.60501.35386.14387.0513.1938TT-2.21170.7948314.5055645733600.21875923488818714155275WETL
2020-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20214512529.7919.4224.60501.35386.14387.0213.1638TT-2.21169.7948314.5055645733600.21875923488818714155275WETL
2020-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20214512529.4723.7926.6300.95916.17916.9213.0991TT-2.53175.4748314.5055645733600.209433955393878714155275WETL
2020-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20214512533.0723.8228.44500.88435.42436.7112.1343TT1.07184.0748314.5055645733600.326900299373748724155287.5WETL
2020-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20214512533.0723.8228.44500.87135.41136.7112.1213TT1.07182.0748314.5055645733600.326900299373748724155287.5WETL
2020-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20214512530.4724.4227.44501.04345.73346.6212.3534TT-1.53179.4748314.5055645733600.239347567428468714155275WETL
2020-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20214512531.7522.1826.96500.82824.02826.4610.4882TT-0.25172.7548314.5055645733600.280809176136858724155287.5WETL
2020-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20214512531.7525.2828.51500.73533.93536.3610.2953TT-0.25174.7548314.5055645733600.280809176136858724155287.5WETL
2020-11-07 02:57:58FORECAST20214512528.3727.3227.84500.4284.0586.2710.328TT-3.63182.3748314.5055645733600.17920790547288714155275WETL