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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 13, 2020

[ Thursday, November 12, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 14, 2020 ]

DAY 44 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/14/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.142
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.49 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 36 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 12.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-14 07:00:07OBSERVATION20214412428.4599421.6525.0549736.0704190476191.491.797.319.1TT-3.54006147.4599449340.29669409443 12.2746443565060.1417355111626885 15151217.5WETL
2020-11-14 03:00:07OBSERVATION20214412428.4599421.6525.0549736.0704190476191.491.797.319.1TT-3.54006147.4599449340.29669409443 12.2746443565060.1417355111626885 15151217.5WETL
2020-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20214412430.0123.4126.7125.5318462788280.80951.10957.318.4195TT-1.99149.0149333.308056739878.50997006817740.185524756234898515142228WETL
2020-11-13 07:00:07FORECAST20214412434.3423.929.1226.6206933048521.16691.46697.318.7769TT2.34153.3449334.03882013078.89234498261380.345531800153438525142232WETL
2020-11-13 03:00:06FORECAST20214412433.0724.2128.6429.1455627800751.97152.27157.319.5815TT1.07152.0749335.725591772549.78491131188430.293499101961888525152240WETL
2020-11-12 23:00:03FORECAST20214412431.9124.7828.34531.7058014035992.61783.28787.3110.5978TT-0.09158.9149337.4249819882210.6983294675310.249407963687468525151220WETL
2020-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20214412433.3324.5628.94531.2708850858712.59733.26737.3110.5773TT1.33160.3349337.1370795137110.5425748716590.303854687457918525151220WETL
2020-11-12 15:00:03FORECAST20214412433.5925.9929.7931.2515211119742.51983.18987.3110.4998TT1.59160.5949337.1242537060710.5356457320540.314369990033488525151220WETL
2020-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20214412433.7526.4330.0933.0274017224242.56273.23277.3110.5427TT1.75160.7549338.2978954640511.1731004953420.320917305009728525151220WETL
2020-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20214412430.7226.3528.53533.3608753713462.47713.18717.3110.4971TT-1.28157.7249338.5176913359311.2932465116540.208114901953988515151217.5WETL
2020-11-12 03:00:03FORECAST20214412433.6526.0229.83531.7079516797012.34383.06387.3110.3738TT1.65159.6549337.4264046210710.699100133180.316818546381548525151220WETL
2020-11-11 22:59:55FORECAST20214412433.9626.7630.3629.297294859132.57113.43117.3110.7411TT1.96167.9649335.826614185119.83881133732440.329595553834228525152240WETL
2020-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20214412430.3726.9428.65530.0448336498882.32813.19817.3110.5081TT-1.63164.3749336.3237535201410.1047912270180.19678288154168515151217.5WETL
2020-11-11 15:00:03FORECAST20214412433.321.5927.44531.6404384759672.31083.17087.3110.4808TT1.3165.349337.3817338574810.6749059930330.302651531610868525151220WETL
2020-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20214412431.9421.8826.9132.7299276568242.55893.37897.3110.6889TT-0.059999999999999163.9449338.1016701115711.0660432034030.250502298007758525151220WETL
2020-11-11 07:00:04FORECAST20214412432.5321.3426.93532.6796971635482.52863.33867.3110.6486TT0.53164.5349338.0685215093911.0479769034550.272530011865398525151220WETL
2020-11-11 03:00:01FORECAST20214412433.2922.9928.1432.3959103741162.43273.21277.3110.5227TT1.29164.2949337.8811626693210.9459678629380.302250954101698525151220WETL
2020-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20214412432.8424.4528.64524.8773616130032.38923.17926.59.6792TT0.84167.8449332.867835652768.28087351687140.284476852952228525152240WETL
2020-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20214412432.4925.8729.1824.4897092629872.5173.3076.59.807TT0.49166.4949332.606746667928.14544252480550.271006800802498525152240WETL
2020-11-10 15:00:04FORECAST20214412432.3225.8129.06525.2164605518922.54373.35376.59.8537TT0.32161.3249333.096012572268.39950246102090.264580848112068525152240WETL
2020-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20214412429.6125.5227.56529.0189375925972.37343.20346.59.7034TT-2.39164.6149335.64125558659.73995264936560.173494115327048515152235WETL
2020-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20214412435.7426.0230.8829.0524984954652.33053.07056.789.8505TT3.74167.7449335.663610799889.75186654774580.406438345923168525152240WETL
2020-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20214412433.7222.2928.00533.26686659972.57153.30157.0710.3715TT1.72165.7249338.4557480416911.2593622200050.319685356051078525151220WETL
2020-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20214412428.9824.9926.98532.2526367995042.70973.21977.2910.5097TT-3.02170.9849337.786520725710.8945059687340.155575580979118515151217.5WETL
2020-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20214412431.5725.1428.35530.0655826815452.53752.99757.1910.1875TT-0.43172.5749336.3375388895710.1121840843920.237184828549088515151217.5WETL
2020-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93530.0022065891442.51142.99147.1510.1414TT2.73171.7349336.2954304114210.0896049781890.362176715900678525151220WETL
2020-11-09 13:58:06FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93530.3498474201432.51143.08147.0910.1714TT2.73170.7349336.5263273066610.2135226866180.362176715900678525151220WETL
2020-11-09 13:57:16FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93502.51143.08147.0910.1714TT2.73170.7349315.5804199094300.3621767159006785251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:56:20FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93502.51143.08147.0910.1714TT2.73170.7349315.5804199094300.3621767159006785251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:54:44FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93502.51143.08147.0910.1714TT2.73170.7349315.5804199094300.3621767159006785251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:53:55FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93502.51143.08147.0910.1714TT2.73170.7349315.5804199094300.3621767159006785251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:33FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93502.51143.08147.0910.1714TT2.73170.7349315.5804199094300.3621767159006785251552100WETL
2020-11-09 13:49:03FORECAST20214412434.7325.1429.93502.51143.08147.0910.1714TT2.73170.7349315.5804199094300.3621767159006785251552100WETL
2020-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20214412436.8326.9431.88502.55752.89757.1810.0775TT4.83175.8349315.5804199094300.4555683838160685251552100WETL
2020-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20214412436.8326.9431.88502.55752.93757.3510.2875TT4.83177.8349315.5804199094300.4555683838160685251552100WETL
2020-11-09 02:58:03FORECAST20214412436.6927.0431.86502.6633.1437.3110.453TT4.69177.6949315.5804199094300.4492034108732985251552100WETL
2020-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20214412435.4726.4730.9702.91563.7556710.7556TT3.47185.4749315.5804199094300.3944621901335185251552100WETL
2020-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20214412435.4726.4730.9702.91563.76566.910.6656TT3.47186.4749315.5804199094300.3944621901335185251552100WETL
2020-11-08 14:57:59FORECAST20214412435.7626.3531.05502.64563.7756710.7756TT3.76189.7649315.5804199094300.4073291092162885251552100WETL
2020-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20214412436.4925.931.19503.11015.01016.8311.8401TT4.49186.4949315.5804199094300.4401336193015585251552100WETL
2020-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20214412436.4925.931.19503.11015.00016.8111.8101TT4.49185.4949315.5804199094300.4401336193015585251552100WETL
2020-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20214412435.623.7329.66503.52255.41256.7312.1425TT3.6190.649315.5804199094300.4002167969905385251552100WETL
2020-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20214412435.4121.5728.4903.73124.74126.5111.2512TT3.41196.4149315.5804199094300.3918138815501285251552100WETL
2020-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20214412435.4121.5728.4903.73124.75126.511.2512TT3.41194.4149315.5804199094300.3918138815501285251552100WETL
2020-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20214412436.0820.8128.44503.77684.87686.4311.3068TT4.08194.0849315.5804199094300.4216434833035885251552100WETL
2020-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20214412433.328.0430.6702.91323.31326.359.6632TT1.3186.349315.5804199094300.3026515316108685251552100WETL
2020-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20214412433.328.0430.6702.91323.31326.259.5632TT1.3188.349315.5804199094300.3026515316108685251552100WETL
2020-11-07 02:57:58FORECAST20214412433.6423.4428.5403.29133.65136.259.9013TT1.64198.6449315.5804199094300.3164098926135985251552100WETL
2020-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20214412432.823.3828.0904.10514.97515.9110.8851TT0.8199.849315.5804199094300.2829213789739485252552112.5WETL
2020-11-06 18:57:58FORECAST20214412432.823.3828.0903.59974.46975.9410.4097TT0.8200.849315.5804199094300.2829213789739485252552112.5WETL
2020-11-06 14:57:58FORECAST2021441243621.6428.8202.6983.5785.789.358TT421349315.5804199094300.4180543863984785252552112.5WETL
2020-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20214412432.1524.4628.30500.86441.64445.587.2244TT0.15200.1549315.5804199094300.258233223726785252552112.5WETL
2020-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20214412432.1530.4331.2900.30891.08895.716.7989TT0.15201.1549315.5804199094300.25823322372678525245290WETL
2020-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20214412430.7930.530.64500.10420.67425.756.4242TT-1.21196.7949315.5804199094300.210426574785068515135252.5WETL