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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 14, 2020

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DAY 14 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/15/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 32.53°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 30.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 31.39°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.057 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 467 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.04 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 2.09 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 4.61 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 6.70 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 80 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.95 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 94 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 5 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-15 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2021	14	94	32.52992	30.25004	31.38998	0.04000000000002	2.09	4.61	6.7	T	T	0.52992	466.52992	80	346.95351932015	0.057106457430313	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	L
2020-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	14	94	32.87	32.87	32.87	0.0014	2.0514	4.61	6.6614	T	T	0.87	466.87	79	345.99810856281	0.06108991436071	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 11:59:21	FORECAST	2021	14	94	41.53	32.14	36.835	0.0954	2.1454	4.61	6.7554	T	T	9.53	475.53	79	345.99810856281	0.2465766399613	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	14	94	38.27	31.93	35.1	0.202	2.252	4.61	6.862	T	T	6.27	472.27	79	345.99810856281	0.15650596086235	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	38.78	31.37	35.075	0.2742	2.3242	4.61	6.9342	T	T	6.78	472.78	79	345.99810856281	0.16896058910569	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40.09	30.25	35.17	0.3931	0.9431	4.61	5.5531	T	F	8.09	463.09	80	346.95351932015	0.20377066137149	93	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2020-10-13 20:00:26	FORECAST	2021	14	94	35.98	30.26	33.12	0.5585	1.7885	4.61	6.3985	T	T	3.98	470.98	80	346.95351932015	0.10815355967941	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	39.59	31.21	35.4	0.5404	1.7704	4.61	6.3804	T	T	7.59	474.59	80	346.95351932015	0.19000915552238	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	39.95	31	35.475	0.4159	1.6459	4.61	6.2559	T	T	7.95	474.95	80	346.95351932015	0.19985890641847	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	14	94	36.43	31.83	34.13	0.4079	2.2379	4.61	6.8479	T	T	4.43	473.43	80	346.95351932015	0.11669120481323	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 03:59:55	FORECAST	2021	14	94	35.95	31.87	33.91	0.4722	3.1322	4.61	7.7422	T	T	3.95	469.95	80	346.95351932015	0.107600754485	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	39.65	31.6	35.625	0.4917	3.2817	4.61	7.8917	T	T	7.65	471.65	80	346.95351932015	0.19162977996126	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40.77	30.94	35.855	0.4775	3.1375	4.61	7.7475	T	T	8.77	476.77	80	346.95351932015	0.22340862484104	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40.56	31.1	35.83	0.5626	3.4226	4.61	8.0326	T	T	8.56	476.56	80	346.95351932015	0.2172320297546	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	14	94	36.71	31.62	34.165	0.4115	3.1415	4.61	7.7515	T	T	4.71	473.71	80	346.95351932015	0.12223809684768	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	41.67	31.65	36.66	0.3718	3.1118	4.61	7.7218	T	T	9.67	476.67	80	346.95351932015	0.25098035800102	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	42.43	31.99	37.21	0.3054	2.9854	4.61	7.5954	T	T	10.43	477.43	80	346.95351932015	0.275592607421	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	42.37	32.55	37.46	0.1714	3.0114	2.43	5.4414	T	T	10.37	483.37	80	346.95351932015	0.27360726585664	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	45.31	32.62	38.965	0.1348	2.9848	4.39	7.3748	T	T	13.31	475.31	80	346.95351932015	0.37820460086422	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 15:59:26	FORECAST	2021	14	94	42.6	33.05	37.825	0.0705	2.6805	4.39	7.0705	T	T	10.6	471.6	80	346.95351932015	0.28125587143176	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 11:59:27	FORECAST	2021	14	94	43.32	32.46	37.89	0.0885	2.5485	4.39	6.9385	T	T	11.32	471.32	80	346.95351932015	0.30584378823502	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 07:59:57	FORECAST	2021	14	94	37.47	32.93	35.2	0.0879	2.8179	4.53	7.3479	T	T	5.47	473.47	80	346.95351932015	0.13821503745633	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-11 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	14	94	43.48	33	38.24	0.0661	2.6961	4.76	7.4561	T	T	11.48	478.48	80	346.95351932015	0.31143429726363	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	43.38	33.75	38.565	0.0979	2.7479	2.9	5.6479	T	T	11.38	472.38	80	346.95351932015	0.3079350305499	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 20:00:21	FORECAST	2021	14	94	44.55	33.39	38.97	0.0877	2.4377	3.48	5.9177	T	T	12.55	476.55	80	346.95351932015	0.34989173198863	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	45.18	32.74	38.96	0.0657	1.7657	3.47	5.2357	T	F	13.18	477.18	80	346.95351932015	0.37331008254006	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2020-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	44.56	33.52	39.04	0.0459	1.9959	3.05	5.0459	T	F	12.56	473.56	80	346.95351932015	0.35025930242798	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2020-10-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	44.56	33.52	39.04	0.0459	1.9559	3.66	5.6159	T	F	12.56	472.56	80	346.95351932015	0.35025930242798	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2020-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	14	94	38.43	33.59	36.01	0.0526	2.0326	4.11	6.1426	T	T	6.43	475.43	80	346.95351932015	0.1603466832821	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	48.39	38.67	43.53	0.0446	1.9846	4.6	6.5846	T	T	16.39	475.39	80	346.95351932015	0.49817232814842	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	48.39	38.67	43.53	0.0446	1.9946	4.37	6.3646	T	T	16.39	490.39	80	346.95351932015	0.49817232814842	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	47.44	37.68	42.56	0.0971	2.0271	4.21	6.2371	T	T	15.44	487.44	80	346.95351932015	0.46063006802695	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	14	94	46.23	36.09	41.16	0.8767	3.8067	3.98	7.7867	T	T	14.23	485.23	80	346.95351932015	0.41335980204488	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 08:00:17	FORECAST	2021	14	94	46.23	36.09	41.16	0.8767	3.6567	3.88	7.5367	T	T	14.23	473.23	80	346.95351932015	0.41335980204488	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	14	94	45.77	37	41.385	0.7263	3.1563	3.93	7.0863	T	T	13.77	473.77	80	346.95351932015	0.39567612060945	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	42.58	30.92	36.75	0.1742	3.0242	3.7	6.7242	T	T	10.58	478.58	80	346.95351932015	0.28058670191459	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	42.58	30.92	36.75	0.1742	3.0242	3.76	6.7842	T	T	10.58	487.58	80	346.95351932015	0.28058670191459	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	14	94	42.22	30.23	36.225	0.1795	3.1595	3.79	6.9495	T	T	10.22	486.22	80	346.95351932015	0.26867504622124	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40.67	29.69	35.18	0.2042	3.5642	3.95	7.5142	T	T	8.67	485.67	80	346.95351932015	0.22045503106928	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40.67	29.69	35.18	0.2042	3.5642	4.16	7.7242	T	T	8.67	481.67	80	346.95351932015	0.22045503106928	93	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	42.7	32.56	37.63	0.1184	3.1184	4.15	7.2684	T	T	10.7	479.7	80	346.95351932015	0.28461321431514	93	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 00:00:16	FORECAST	2021	14	94	45.52	36.58	41.05	0.577	1.197	3.1	4.297	T	F	13.52	476.52	80	346.95351932015	0.38615224908053	93	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2020-10-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	45.52	36.58	41.05	0.5402	1.1602	3.09	4.2502	T	F	13.52	491.52	80	346.95351932015	0.38615224908053	93	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2020-10-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	43.57	37.02	40.295	0.5517	0.9917	3.11	4.1017	T	F	11.57	497.57	80	346.95351932015	0.31459826850195	93	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2020-10-07 11:59:41	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40.91	36.96	38.935	0.404	0.954	3.45	4.404	T	F	8.91	490.91	80	346.95351932015	0.22758116832979	93	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2020-10-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40.91	37.57	39.24	0.249	0.799	3.39	4.189	T	F	8.91	489.91	80	346.95351932015	0.22758116832979	93	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2020-10-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	14	94	40	37.67	38.835	0.1268	0.6768	3.03	3.7068	T	F	8	488	80	346.95351932015	0.20125075931731	93	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H