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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 4, 2020

[ Friday, July 3, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 5, 2020 ]

DAY 278 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/03/2020 12:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.345
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 402

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 53 in
SWE DAY: 185
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.05 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020278-854.7241.0747.89553.3494146666670.04310.06311.181.2431FF22.72401.72185450.855953381124.0529012118640.34530184050225962131123DRYL
2020-07-02 20:00:01FORECAST2020278-854.9941.9148.4554.3946786666670.050.11.181.28FF22.99412.99185451.2458332071524.5453720969750.35488000762587962132126DRYL
2020-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2020278-855.641.8648.7354.3016906666670.03620.08621.181.2662FF23.6413.6185451.2111909389824.5015305157070.3768516799265962131123DRYL
2020-07-02 12:00:01FORECAST2020278-857.4141.7249.56553.2451480.00730.06731.181.2473FF25.41414.41185450.8170054707124.0038181772050.44416342706794962131123DRYL
2020-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020278-857.7841.6249.753.1664280.0040.0641.181.244FF25.78411.78185450.7875934621123.9667661310960.45819268176911962131123DRYL
2020-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2020278-858.6241.7350.17553.0997159166670.00550.10551.181.2855FF26.62416.62185450.7626633451623.9353693694680.49020937506343962132126DRYL
2020-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2020278-858.6142.3150.4653.5955440.00490.12490.80.9249FF26.61414.61185450.947851959124.1687954413790.48982744077892962132126DRYL
2020-07-01 20:03:08FORECAST2020278-860.5542.251.37554.4765893333330.00560.14560.921.0656FF28.55427.55185451.2763418863824.5839959527930.56367204593494963132127DRYL
2020-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2020278-861.5241.6951.60554.4142146666670.00090.10090.921.0209FF29.52428.52185451.2531102175424.5545836083780.59993533556361963132127DRYL
2020-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2020278-854.7442.0548.39553.7973560.00220.08220.921.0022FF22.74422.74185451.0231606912624.2638535399530.34600803889431962131123DRYL
2020-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2020278-855.439.8147.60553.7787693333330.00340.08340.951.0334FF23.4419.4185451.0162264524124.2550976079750.36959979121511962131123DRYL
2020-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2020278-860.3739.8250.09553.6667436666670.00340.09341.011.1034FF28.37428.37185450.9744254338124.2023288899790.55687379646083963132127DRYL
2020-07-01 00:00:01FORECAST2020278-860.7339.6750.254.4121746666670.00430.07430.991.0643FF28.73420.73185451.2523503500524.5536217059910.57045154001316963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-30 20:00:03FORECAST2020278-860.7339.5950.1655.4179146666670.00450.07451.091.1645FF28.73430.73185451.6264953491725.0281985804660.57045154001316963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2020278-859.8141.650.70554.8392680.0010.0911.111.201FF27.81433.81185451.4113499648324.7550679989630.53562532437361963132127DRYL
2020-06-30 12:00:02FORECAST2020278-865.2941.4953.3954.0892413333330.00260.07261.11.1726FF33.29435.29185451.1320131710824.4013883336030.73047024141516964131124DRYL
2020-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2020278-865.3141.553.40553.9668973333330.00260.10261.281.3826FF33.31424.31185451.0863973800524.3437332958730.73110269256804964132128DRYL
2020-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2020278-864.6840.6352.65554.06566050.00280.10281.331.4328FF32.68432.68185451.1232221927724.390274974740.71083031628001964132128DRYL
2020-06-29 23:58:49FORECAST2020278-858.4343.0950.7654.2925840.06180.22181.431.6518FF26.43439.43185451.2077978506824.4972372662630.48295455772353962132126DRYL
2020-06-29 19:53:57FORECAST2020278-858.4443.150.7755.5572253333330.06180.24181.511.7518FF26.44430.44185451.6782449398625.0939900322880.48333627058315962132126DRYL
2020-06-29 16:03:04FORECAST2020278-858.7442.7350.73555.3940453333330.06220.23221.531.7622FF26.74435.74185451.6176267946925.0169272919980.49479318657566962132126DRYL
2020-06-29 12:00:01FORECAST2020278-868.4744.4956.4852.3839893333330.00110.11111.271.3811FF36.47462.47185450.4949323965223.598721733380.820917434471599641321116DRYL
2020-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2020278-868.4844.556.4952.1185280.00110.09111.321.4111FF36.48463.48185450.3955078023923.4739508844730.821167950046779641321116DRYL
2020-06-29 04:00:03FORECAST2020278-866.6543.8455.24551.6290676666670.00110.07111.251.3211FF34.65465.65185450.2120118635523.2440264248490.77171381520466964131124DRYL
2020-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2020278-863.2741.5152.3951.5198186666670.00090.04090.880.9209FF31.27464.27185450.1710238737423.1927295189630.66303984463052963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-28 20:00:04FORECAST2020278-863.2841.552.3952.7016946666670.00090.01090.940.9509FF31.28478.28185450.613836109523.7481128032180.66338947056918963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020278-863.341.8252.5652.2692813333330.00090.00090.870.8709FF31.3480.3185450.4519784464723.5448011885750.66408829890976963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020278-867.2246.256.7150.0044413333330.00570.00570.820.8257FF35.22489.22185449.6013106870222.4820623636390.7878855062899964131124DRYL
2020-06-28 08:00:04FORECAST2020278-867.2246.2156.71549.9447453333330.00570.00570.730.7357FF35.22482.22185449.5788227722322.4540998106190.7878855062899964131124DRYL
2020-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020278-867.7244.8756.29549.7165150833330.00040.00040.750.7504FF35.72489.72185449.492815341622.3472163337810.80150445347814964131124DRYL
2020-06-27 23:54:33FORECAST2020278-863.441.8952.64552.9533826666670.00110.00110.960.9611FF31.4496.4185450.7079642252723.8665113005350.66757390178213963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2020278-863.4141.8952.6554.2904573333330.00090.00090.870.8709FF31.41496.41185451.2070054563824.4962346782310.66792167313194963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2020278-86040.1450.0755.3133253333330.0240.0340.920.954FF28490185451.5876316204224.978813584330.54284910949831963131123.5DRYL
2020-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020278-856.9942.4849.73554.761574666667000.940.94FF24.99483.99185451.382438885824.7184131302670.42832362917955962131123DRYL
2020-06-27 08:00:01FORECAST2020278-845.3142.4843.89554.78858000.990.99FF13.31470.31185451.3924887002924.7311534785550.096846959296133961131122.5DRYL
2020-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020278-844.5643.9544.25555.019743001.061.06FF12.56475.56185451.4784859252324.8402302656350.085079326114085961131122.5DRYL