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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 3, 2020

[ Thursday, July 2, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 4, 2020 ]

DAY 277 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/03/2020 04:00:05 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.167
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 382

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 56 in
SWE DAY: 184
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 25.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-03 04:00:05FORECAST2020277-848.5540.0444.29555.779557250.02080.44081.211.6508FF16.55381.55185451.7607964264825.1990172075760.16696678110536951122124DRYL
2020-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020277-954.339.6346.96555.2565706666670.02170.41171.211.6217FF22.3385.3184451.0094131473524.9212335089090.34043320507818952122125DRYL
2020-07-02 20:00:01FORECAST2020277-954.2538.646.42556.3392813333330.02180.44181.211.6518FF22.25396.25184451.4128198050425.432273852470.33866635182615952122125DRYL
2020-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2020277-954.1738.6646.41556.295220.02170.44171.211.6517FF22.17396.17184451.3964246596125.4114610334260.33584676637252952122125DRYL
2020-07-02 12:00:01FORECAST2020277-953.440.0946.74555.3292053333330.02610.44611.211.6561FF21.4395.4184451.0365107936124.955491718530.30919848748252952122125DRYL
2020-07-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020277-953.939.9446.9255.266940.01690.44691.211.6569FF21.9391.9184451.0132819163524.9261239908740.32639940826951952122125DRYL
2020-07-02 04:00:04FORECAST2020277-954.1239.7746.94555.2554959166670.01790.48791.211.6979FF22.12396.12184451.0090121553324.9207266295290.33408919041409952122125DRYL
2020-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2020277-954.7439.8647.355.7778373333330.01150.13151.211.3415FF22.74393.74184451.2037701360525.1671704948350.35612885852956952122125DRYL
2020-07-01 20:03:08FORECAST2020277-956.7539.3748.0656.7972986666670.01960.26961.211.4796FF24.75404.75184451.5831386302425.6487023976130.43058537978349952132126DRYL
2020-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2020277-956.9939.5548.2756.7549320.01860.22861.211.4386FF24.99404.99184451.5673924304825.6286766508090.4397011461951952132126DRYL
2020-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2020277-957.3639.5248.4455.9094573333330.00460.21461.211.4246FF25.36406.36184451.2528046598525.2292994286770.45381577339256952132126DRYL
2020-07-01 08:00:03FORECAST2020277-951.8839.6245.7555.8378986666670.00440.24441.211.4544FF19.88401.88184451.2261477878325.1955199159270.25952866283864952132126DRYL
2020-07-01 04:00:03FORECAST2020277-957.440.1848.7955.8426956666670.00610.30611.211.5161FF25.4406.4184451.2279349068925.1977842453040.45534550444564952132126DRYL
2020-07-01 00:00:01FORECAST2020277-959.2737.7548.5156.710580.00330.34331.141.4833FF27.27398.27184451.5509065366225.6077138092170.52721268307957953122126DRYL
2020-06-30 20:00:03FORECAST2020277-958.7737.3148.0457.6918293333330.00340.34341.241.5834FF26.77407.77184451.9152089332526.0718151069150.50798677061124953132127DRYL
2020-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2020277-961.2839.7350.50557.2787133333330.00520.37521.241.6152FF29.28412.28184451.7619445575525.8763429172210.60341854094624953132127DRYL
2020-06-30 12:00:02FORECAST2020277-953.9739.2846.62556.7140066666670.00250.35251.241.5925FF21.97407.97184451.5521803145625.6093333647080.32883836638435952132126DRYL
2020-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2020277-953.4939.4946.4956.5923186666670.00330.49331.311.8033FF21.49397.49184451.5069390385225.5518245742790.3122654057686952123127.5DRYL
2020-06-30 04:00:04FORECAST2020277-957.6639.6848.6756.6049818333330.00190.49191.361.8519FF25.66405.66184451.5116476141125.5578086107350.46530389336829952133129DRYL
2020-06-29 23:58:49FORECAST2020277-961.436.6649.0356.5307466666670.00020.63021.382.0102FF29.4419.4184451.4840424157125.5227300258450.607874769431219531331210.5DRYL
2020-06-29 19:53:57FORECAST2020277-961.4236.1348.77557.7963173333330.00040.73041.382.1104FF29.42410.42184451.9539480858326.1212738036210.608616118236429531331210.5DRYL
2020-06-29 16:03:04FORECAST2020277-964.6237.8451.2357.6456560.00020.71021.412.1202FF32.62414.62184451.89808679426.0499616583850.720553568841249541331212DRYL
2020-06-29 12:00:01FORECAST2020277-965.1339.852.46555.397380.00170.44171.361.8017FF33.13432.13184451.0619400101724.9876496942810.73686217319637954132128DRYL
2020-06-29 08:00:03FORECAST2020277-965.1439.8152.47555.1326840.00170.41171.421.8317FF33.14433.14184450.9631834998124.8628106915290.73717702714881954132128DRYL
2020-06-29 04:00:03FORECAST2020277-965.0340.2852.65554.4880250.00170.32171.421.7417FF33.03437.03184450.722387090924.5589726958690.73370308376307954132128DRYL
2020-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2020277-963.8339.3151.5753.90640133333300.271.071.34FF31.83438.83184450.5047973687124.285092409550.69436285442568953132127DRYL
2020-06-28 20:00:04FORECAST2020277-963.8439.3151.57555.08882400.181.191.37FF31.84452.84184450.9468131800924.8421296246390.6947010809426953132127DRYL
2020-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020277-964.641.3552.97554.66608666666700.141.151.29FF32.6454.6184450.7889370355424.6428671003590.71990415941711954132128DRYL
2020-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020277-968.1241.854.9652.9941613333330.00180.11181.131.2418FF36.12460.12184450.1628734964623.8560039443480.821811909487239541321116DRYL
2020-06-28 08:00:04FORECAST2020277-968.1341.8154.9752.9351760.00180.09181.061.1518FF36.13453.13184450.1407374561823.8282791620130.822063517181269541321116DRYL
2020-06-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020277-967.3241.0654.1952.602969750.00270.04271.131.1727FF35.32460.32184450.0160050004123.6721782980530.80096259606495954131124DRYL
2020-06-27 23:54:33FORECAST2020277-965.9241.6153.76555.4119613333330.00020.02021.361.3802FF33.92470.92184451.0673782924.9945281245330.76112940737916954131124DRYL
2020-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2020277-965.9241.6153.76556.3980213333330.00020.01021.281.2902FF33.92470.92184451.4346740033725.4600223750490.76112940737916954131124DRYL
2020-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2020277-963.0840.5851.8356.5609280.00620.01621.331.3462FF31.08468.08184451.495266318725.5369912505930.66854035958996953131123.5DRYL
2020-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020277-963.1938.8951.0455.693860.00130.01131.351.3613FF31.19465.19184451.1724761368125.1275367218170.67238203145241953131123.5DRYL
2020-06-27 08:00:01FORECAST2020277-963.238.8951.04555.2773546666670.00130.01131.41.4113FF31.2463.2184451.0171674965224.9310359284610.67273037952368953131123.5DRYL
2020-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020277-964.6838.751.6955.2868443333330.00130.01131.471.4813FF32.68468.68184451.0207078814224.935511667750.72249740303026954131124DRYL
2020-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2020277-967.4842.3454.9154.7571666666670.00410.02411.351.3741FF35.48476.48184450.8229662432424.6857882997420.8052457777696954131124DRYL
2020-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2020277-967.4942.3454.91557.3204520.00120.02121.381.4012FF35.49492.49184451.7774367395925.8960868773150.80551160581219954131124DRYL
2020-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020277-968.8341.755.26557.8500626666670.00060.02061.371.3906FF36.83495.83184451.9738702807626.1467167194380.83911877674102954131118DRYL
2020-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2020277-959.7940.2450.01556.4168666666670.00030.01031.321.3303FF27.79484.79184451.4416847128225.4689253342190.54713996217537953131123.5DRYL
2020-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020277-943.2538.8241.03557.0244866666670.00050.00051.41.4005FF11.25463.25184451.6675475186725.7561100412440.069651551512803951131122.5DRYL
2020-06-26 04:00:05FORECAST2020277-941.6840.8941.28556.667682416667001.451.45FF9.68464.68184451.5349594908625.5874396844510.051515240848217951131122.5DRYL