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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 23, 2020

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DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2020 12:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.118
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 212

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.65 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 143
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-24 00:00:01FORECAST2020236-4936.9736.9736.97141.972830666670.00010.65012.743.3901FF4.97211.97144460.7015109988765.4070976089210.11766613088187911123126DRYL
2020-05-23 11:56:01FORECAST2020236-4948.9337.2243.075142.218430666670.01340.66342.743.4034FF16.93223.93144460.7870720187965.5324142540010.44129792729422912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020236-4944.5629.7737.165142.2682320.01810.66812.743.4081TF12.56219.56144460.804415074765.5578294304720.29902304841697912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020236-4950.1633.0741.615142.10250850.01680.66682.743.4068TF18.16225.16144460.7466942282965.4732610329220.48370522609337912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-22 23:56:21FORECAST2020236-5049.4730.4339.95136.123973935810.03890.12892.742.8689FF17.47234.47143458.1178976696262.360828761910.45986199454454912122125DRYL
2020-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020236-5049.3230.9240.12136.176829333330.03760.12762.742.8676FF17.32234.32143458.1366625359862.3875981055050.45469476021561912122125DRYL
2020-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020236-5049.8331.7140.77136.109261333330.0450.1352.742.875FF17.83234.83143458.1126739134162.3533776537920.47228939526834912122125DRYL
2020-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020236-5050.5833.5642.07135.695981333330.03670.12672.742.8667FF18.58235.58143457.9658577505862.1441264846270.49825257522668912122125DRYL
2020-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2020236-5050.6933.5342.11135.859793115410.03680.16682.742.9068FF18.69229.69143458.0240697067662.2270553522390.5020637663077913122126DRYL
2020-05-22 03:59:14FORECAST2020236-5046.533.7640.13135.946433247570.0330.2232.742.963FF14.5229.5143458.0548482474662.2709228509990.35990191414207912122125DRYL
2020-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2020236-5051.533.7242.61136.272083829840.03350.33352.743.0735FF19.5235.5143458.1704736848862.4358451983440.53009949623787913122126DRYL
2020-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2020236-5051.2533.4642.355135.425676552620.03460.74462.743.4846TF19.25243.25143457.8697495978862.0073206122690.52145592412475913123129DRYL
2020-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2020236-5051.2133.6142.41135.460471857440.03140.75142.743.4914TF19.21244.21143457.8821249349362.0249286987720.52007190934019913123129DRYL
2020-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020236-5051.8433.5442.69135.796591477340.03120.76122.743.5012TF19.84243.84143458.00161331962.1950579798450.54183125179292913123129DRYL
2020-05-21 08:01:59FORECAST2020236-5051.7733.542.635136.621171790.02960.83962.743.5796TF19.77238.77143458.2943146270162.6127062890360.53941852822582913123129DRYL
2020-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2020236-5051.9733.442.685137.000845574450.02650.90652.743.6465TF19.97232.97143458.4288814623762.8051443960950.54630787095493913123129DRYL
2020-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2020236-5047.2733.240.235137.202903564580.02150.88152.443.3215TF15.27231.27143458.500443481962.9075921313660.38520167693484912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020236-5052.7633.242.98137.71304603160.02430.81432.63.4143TF20.76248.76143458.6809551360963.1663514884760.57336526628954913123129DRYL
2020-05-20 15:56:22FORECAST2020236-5052.732.9742.835137.520344859530.02230.74232.63.3423FF20.7249.7143458.6127961671563.0685898858980.57132070075444913123129DRYL
2020-05-20 12:00:01FORECAST2020236-5049.633.1141.355136.863716733750.01560.81562.63.4156TF17.6251.6143458.3802941987162.7356307415460.4643457864041912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-20 08:01:58FORECAST2020236-5049.6233.1841.4137.075895018420.01130.84132.633.4713TF17.62247.62143458.4554656924162.8431932858730.46503601702313912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-20 04:00:05FORECAST2020236-5053.3632.7143.035137.116425910240.01150.81152.643.4515TF21.36250.36143458.4698205542862.863743182110.59369384410168913123129DRYL
2020-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2020236-5052.5133.0942.8136.96031642370.01130.84132.593.4313TF20.51245.51143458.4145230025162.7845981236450.56483386229933913123129DRYL
2020-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2020236-5052.9629.4941.225138.105513308520.00390.84392.663.5039TF20.96259.96143458.8196688404163.3655258812480.58016596236326913123129DRYL
2020-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2020236-505232.4842.24138.042585925460.00820.79822.633.4282TF20256143458.7974370821163.3335846307880.54734012296341913123129DRYL
2020-05-19 12:00:04FORECAST2020236-5051.5532.5142.03137.194783057010.00950.82952.663.4895TF19.55264.55143458.4975681845562.9034743992490.53182664092654913123129DRYL
2020-05-19 07:56:25FORECAST2020236-5051.5732.5342.05137.473278236960.00950.81952.633.4495TF19.57248.57143458.59614349563.0447152330830.53251733293712913123129DRYL
2020-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2020236-5050.7931.9541.37137.600424470290.02390.90392.693.5939TF18.79255.79143458.6411246112863.1092134260440.50552833117908913123129DRYL
2020-05-19 00:00:03FORECAST2020236-5049.3232.9341.125138.475410384660.02870.92872.843.7687TF17.32245.32143458.9502788101863.5533282043940.45469476021561912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2020236-5049.3632.9541.155139.681405230060.02870.92873.14.0287TF17.36253.36143459.3752620924664.1661821370010.4560719766124912123127.5WETL
2020-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2020236-5049.613441.805139.322853937720.02310.85313.154.0031TF17.61257.61143459.2490473395763.9838879435280.46469088843277912123127.5WETL
2020-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2020236-5053.0333.5943.31138.452421234050.00420.71423.223.9342TF21.03249.03143458.9421649596763.5416539450620.58254067120425913123129DRYL
2020-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2020236-5053.0633.6143.335137.834885282310.00420.73423.484.2142TF21.06255.06143458.7240328241263.2281744405540.58355748819694913123129WETL
2020-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2020236-5053.1333.3243.225137.81862999540.00230.65233.464.1123TF21.13259.13143458.7182863484963.2199257783840.58592787687232913123129WETL
2020-05-17 23:56:20FORECAST2020236-5049.6834.3842.03137.961485645850.05830.75833.574.3283TF17.68258.68143458.7687797384463.2924224206490.46710733189359912123127.5WETL
2020-05-17 20:00:01FORECAST2020236-5046.7932.8239.805144.110123879150.05830.87833.354.2283TF14.79233.79143460.924787697466.4239282540420.36936533715124912123127.5WETL
2020-05-17 16:01:53FORECAST2020236-5047.8332.840.315144.586533968610.06010.98013.384.3601TF15.83232.83143461.090438639466.6674683689390.403920496244912123127.5WETL
2020-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2020236-5045.3230.7438.03142.747040470210.04990.73993.354.0899TF13.32235.32143460.4497258409265.7278356491110.32232600303832912123127.5WETL
2020-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2020236-5045.3230.7438.03142.864248031050.04990.73993.384.1199TF13.32227.32143460.4906396873265.7876489642660.32232600303832912123127.5WETL
2020-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2020236-5045.8329.5337.68143.167237285590.01360.67363.414.0836TF13.83225.83143460.5963482473465.9423066824050.33837198814414912123127.5WETL
2020-05-16 23:56:32FORECAST2020236-5048.5132.6540.58141.512158074180.08450.57453.363.9345TF16.51247.51143460.0179222904765.0981289361240.42694573754373912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-16 19:56:40FORECAST2020236-5048.5132.6540.58142.591519674620.04290.53293.273.8029TF16.51247.51143460.3954191204165.6484824636120.42694573754373912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2020236-5050.1132.2641.185141.045791269010.00960.43963.193.6296TF18.11250.11143459.8544943083664.8605410183340.48197446401897912122125DRYL
2020-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2020236-5037.8229.9433.88143.845504825650.17681.06682.964.0268TF5.82238.82143460.8326912727566.2887111162940.13289187673845911124128WETL
2020-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2020236-5032.9929.9431.465143.724997744210.1561.0463.334.376TF0.99232.99143460.790730194666.2271466577710.062624339431379911124128WETL
2020-05-16 03:59:18FORECAST2020236-5033.5631.3232.44144.1311054940.04620.91623.214.1262TF1.56224.56143460.9320873642166.4346513094620.068974936277859911123126WETL