Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 24, 2020

[ Saturday, May 23, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, May 25, 2020 ]

DAY 237 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/25/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.436
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 221

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 144
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 63.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-25 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020237-4948.7432.8800240.81001138.4626495833300.642.172.81FF16.74220.74144459.47279911326 63.6198211766920.4360982606205889 2123127.5DRYL
2020-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020237-4843.4443.4443.44140.937461333330.00240.64242.172.8124FF11.44215.44145460.8619615476664.9527148856270.2678673472877892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-24 12:00:03FORECAST2020237-4856.344.4250.36140.643282666670.0080.6482.172.818FF24.3228.3145460.7595265667264.8027323362830.68899059262154893123129DRYL
2020-05-24 08:00:01FORECAST2020237-4856.2439.147.67140.4303560.01970.65972.172.8297FF24.24228.24145460.68533631264.6942057822740.68715480729404893123129DRYL
2020-05-24 03:56:10FORECAST2020237-4856.4337.5446.985140.344474666670.02130.66132.172.8313FF24.43228.43145460.6554012343164.6504402885920.69295200002153893123129DRYL
2020-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020237-4956.5736.746.635140.179217333330.01210.65212.172.8221FF24.57228.57144460.0750392097364.4929589110220.69719309602832893123129DRYL
2020-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2020237-4956.8235.2346.025141.265645333330.01310.66312.172.8331FF24.82240.82144460.4548466413765.0464510576540.704700501438128941231210.5DRYL
2020-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2020237-4956.7635.2946.025141.247113333330.01240.66242.172.8324FF24.76240.76144460.448376769865.0370040577530.702906541083458941231210.5DRYL
2020-05-23 11:56:01FORECAST2020237-4955.6236.7446.18140.454720.00620.65622.172.8262FF23.62239.62144460.1714521783664.6332524677050.6679198042998893123129DRYL
2020-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020237-4956.1837.2246.7140.4835840.00550.66552.172.8355FF24.18236.18144460.1815493161164.6479533385990.68531437273042893123129DRYL
2020-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020237-4952.0637.5244.79140.430309833330.00580.66582.172.8358FF20.06237.06144460.1629124925464.6208203751360.55024230892519893123129DRYL
2020-05-22 23:56:21FORECAST2020237-4958.1137.1347.62134.250656602480.0070.1272.172.297FF26.11252.11144457.9838906268461.4846380300120.74200889482655894122127DRYL
2020-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020237-4957.7936.847.295134.340685333330.00560.12562.172.2956FF25.79251.79144458.0158820020961.5301674817120.73298658110102894122127DRYL
2020-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020237-4958.363747.68134.235506666670.00910.13912.172.3091FF26.36253.36144457.9785064342561.4769768536450.74894607062542894122127DRYL
2020-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020237-4958.5536.5547.55133.819438666670.00640.12642.172.2964FF26.55254.55144457.8305574566461.2666282032950.75415166089765894122127DRYL
2020-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2020237-4958.9336.9147.92133.978822448750.00740.16742.172.3374FF26.93248.93144457.8872509657861.3471946986880.76438689605395894122127DRYL
2020-05-22 03:59:14FORECAST2020237-4958.3937.3847.885134.09399858090.00430.21432.172.3843FF26.39248.39144457.9282053372361.4054241166470.74977185883016894122127DRYL
2020-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2020237-4954.8337.1245.975134.569435829840.00750.32752.172.4975FF22.83250.83144458.0971347408961.6458729773480.64276097196545893122126DRYL
2020-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2020237-4954.5137.2545.88133.797047219280.03980.41982.522.9398FF22.51257.51144457.8225908819161.2553108102810.63238313739019893122126DRYL
2020-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2020237-4955.2637.4246.34133.793630524110.04270.43272.522.9527FF23.26259.26144457.8213752280461.2535839232990.65654042091043893122126DRYL
2020-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020237-4954.6238.6546.635134.149976810680.03630.43632.522.9563FF22.62258.62144457.9481057705761.4337277696150.6359618757683893122126DRYL
2020-05-21 08:01:59FORECAST2020237-4954.6237.9846.3134.917594456660.01690.42692.593.0169FF22.62253.62144458.2207109691261.8220360541760.6359618757683893122126DRYL
2020-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2020237-4957.3638.2747.815135.231777574450.04570.47572.643.1157FF25.36250.36144458.3321340852661.9810692118420.72061729573055894122127DRYL
2020-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2020237-4951.6636.7744.215135.880790231250.10680.54682.32.8468FF19.66242.66144458.5620210808662.3097697945060.5365230865284893123129DRYL
2020-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020237-4951.6936.4844.085136.40350603160.10040.46042.472.9304FF19.69260.69144458.7468970983862.5746851453380.53755374238908893122126DRYL
2020-05-20 15:56:22FORECAST2020237-4952.636.6244.61136.113662192860.06530.32532.52.8253FF20.6262.6144458.6444143983862.4277708880630.5686654453518893122126DRYL
2020-05-20 12:00:01FORECAST2020237-4949.8337.7143.77135.503446067080.06830.31832.592.9083FF17.83261.83144458.4284079921762.1186290579860.47345153441114892122125DRYL
2020-05-20 08:01:58FORECAST2020237-4949.8737.7443.805135.711469685090.06830.30832.652.9583FF17.87257.87144458.5020825247362.2239914731040.47482879374399892122125DRYL
2020-05-20 04:00:05FORECAST2020237-4949.3737.6243.495135.778677910240.07490.31492.632.9449FF17.37259.37144458.5258769577462.2580373609530.45763997413111892122125DRYL
2020-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2020237-4953.137.2445.17135.456873757040.12220.38222.592.9722FF21.1259.1144458.4119084101562.0950440062360.58559262177834893122126DRYL
2020-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2020237-4941.2937.139.195137.100466641850.38640.67642.633.3064FF9.29261.29144458.9930191297162.9281571080340.21033240238324891123126DRYL
2020-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2020237-4945.6237.3941.505136.943676592130.44170.72172.573.2917FF13.62261.62144458.937688862562.8486144395240.33333719410099892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-19 12:00:04FORECAST2020237-4946.4138.2342.32136.035904390350.29770.59772.613.2077FF14.41271.41144458.6169080330162.3883658529750.35853068333477892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-19 07:56:25FORECAST2020237-4946.4538.2542.35136.310791570290.29770.57772.593.1677FF14.45255.45144458.7141234168862.5276852674260.35982395824428892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2020237-4949.3836.0142.695136.399999136960.2880.6582.643.298FF17.38265.38144458.7456575848762.5729072986590.45798308316927892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-19 00:00:03FORECAST2020237-4950.2336.5443.385137.221247717990.37870.70872.863.5687TF18.23255.23144459.0356270236362.9894414871950.4872356933078892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2020237-4950.2636.5543.405138.423142563390.37870.69873.133.8287TF18.26263.26144459.4589075469663.5997458613930.48827032565535892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2020237-4948.7636.8442.8138.088753937720.32010.57013.173.7401TF16.76266.76144459.3412730561163.4298640284830.43677956405814892123127.5DRYL
2020-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2020237-4945.6636.541.08137.394183900711.071.33.124.42TF13.66254.66144459.0966109022663.0772041864990.334596065737718921241210WETL
2020-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2020237-4945.736.5341.115136.772602615651.071.33.44.7TF13.7260.7144458.8772927402762.761841609310.335856798338678921241210WETL
2020-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2020237-4947.936.0641.98136.680852662060.73610.97613.294.2661TF15.9266.9144458.844890434462.7153108642050.40767892744495892123127.5WETL
2020-05-17 23:56:20FORECAST2020237-4957.7137.0347.37136.227950979180.04080.40083.393.7908TF25.71276.71144458.6848335251362.4856950163570.73070639243838894122127DRYL
2020-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2020237-4953.8736.4645.165142.843825212480.01630.37633.293.6663TF21.87247.87144461.0047032995465.8516752602510.61134202027361893122126DRYL
2020-05-17 16:01:53FORECAST2020237-4951.9137.5144.71143.764073968610.08840.50843.363.8684TF19.91244.91144461.3243130463666.3218626643170.545103740504893123129DRYL
2020-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2020237-4940.053437.025142.478080470210.01490.22493.33.5249FF8.05235.05144460.8774696222665.6649372037470.18073658360843891122124DRYL
2020-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2020237-4936.243435.12142.721021364380.00090.21093.333.5409FF4.24223.24144460.961996015465.7889668814820.10704219844129891122124DRYL
2020-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2020237-4935.5533.3134.43143.1140466189300.113.393.5FF3.55221.55144461.098630842365.9896909502880.096425726775508891122124DRYL