Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 23, 2020

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DAY 115 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/24/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.39°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.04°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.71°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.571 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -60 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.55 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 5.27 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.75 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.02 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 131 in SWE DAY: 23 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 374.46 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.04 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -170 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-24 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	115	-170	35.38994	32.03996	33.71495	130.97578791667	2.55	5.27	11.75	17.02	T	T	3.38994	-59.61006	23	374.45591792218	49.044658889916	0.57052952968746	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-24 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	116	-170	34.27	34.27	34.27	132.98759066667	0.0307	2.7507	11.75	14.5007	T	T	2.27	-60.73	23	375.59480017554	49.949447542273	0.52024232941212	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.32	34.21	37.265	132.68845466667	1.3127	4.0327	11.75	15.7827	T	T	8.32	-54.68	23	375.42582729024	49.814672865097	0.76933262082662	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-23 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	41.02	33.87	37.445	132.58978133333	1.8335	4.5535	11.75	16.3035	T	T	9.02	-53.98	23	375.37006154101	49.770234378802	0.79275835548266	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-23 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	36.78	33.96	35.37	132.37696	2.4343	5.1543	11.75	16.9043	T	T	4.78	-58.22	23	375.24973686196	49.674419406586	0.63130275521131	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.94	33.6	36.27	130.508	2.8942	4.0342	11.75	15.7842	T	T	6.94	-56.06	23	374.19026805155	48.834823502871	0.71910427264829	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-22 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.25	33.66	36.955	129.52429066667	2.8981	5.0881	11.75	16.8381	T	T	8.25	-54.75	23	373.63060315505	48.394238845017	0.76691149150053	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-22 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.36	33.88	37.12	129.52942933333	2.7778	4.9678	11.75	16.7178	T	T	8.36	-54.64	23	373.63353034796	48.39653796577	0.770709801045	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	39.87	33.76	36.815	130.30358966437	2.9476	5.1376	11.75	16.8876	T	T	7.87	-55.13	23	374.07408729677	48.743196375192	0.75352548598185	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-22 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	39.67	32.86	36.265	130.28124487793	2.7693	5.1993	11.75	16.9493	T	T	7.67	-56.33	23	374.06138352703	48.733182706662	0.74631843155575	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.31	33.43	36.87	129.6542786546	2.8048	5.3148	11.75	17.0648	T	T	8.31	-55.69	23	373.70463784461	48.452405249621	0.76898760631918	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.58	32.98	36.78	129.87242066506	2.6433	4.1633	11.75	15.9133	T	T	8.58	-63.42	23	373.82882576104	48.550054515963	0.77820148359198	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	34.87	33.29	34.08	128.29531297643	2.546	4.776	11.75	16.526	T	T	2.87	-70.13	23	372.92942923428	47.845097841733	0.54727519933765	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	35.68	33.44	34.56	127.5172233934	2.5096	4.9096	11.75	16.6596	T	T	3.68	-68.32	23	372.48436954853	47.49817256227	0.58340217185217	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	39.84	33.65	36.745	131.18508424648	2.4248	4.8948	11.75	16.6448	T	T	7.84	-64.16	23	374.57467206058	49.138609910865	0.75245145750589	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-21 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.88	33.57	37.225	130.56076074912	2.5006	5.1106	11.75	16.8606	T	T	8.88	-61.12	23	374.22024589913	48.858479992314	0.78818891362055	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	35.11	33.06	34.085	131.54908905114	2.3753	5.3553	11.75	17.1053	T	T	3.11	-64.89	23	374.7810570276	49.302106645603	0.55803432648156	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	35	33.62	34.31	137.85006570075	2.0045	5.0245	11.73	16.7545	T	T	3	-70	23	378.32353645527	52.151924356499	0.55310788335703	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	35.28	33.68	34.48	138.65766659143	2.2086	5.5486	11.76	17.3086	T	T	3.28	-60.72	23	378.7734933725	52.519848757714	0.56563003052296	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.86	34.36	37.61	138.03372907072	2.1158	5.4758	11.76	17.2358	T	T	8.86	-54.14	23	378.4259460754	52.235544513903	0.78753136707094	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.58	34.22	37.4	136.5203753363	2.2086	5.8486	11.76	17.6086	T	T	8.58	-54.42	23	377.58068218048	51.547456451015	0.77820148359198	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	35.95	34.73	35.34	137.06858316518	2.2817	5.7317	11.76	17.4917	T	T	3.95	-59.05	23	377.88725185799	51.796470208359	0.59530502607696	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.01	34.72	36.365	134.45195492838	1.9067	5.2967	11.76	17.0567	T	T	6.01	-58.99	23	376.42012523798	50.61042171263	0.68251628607994	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	37.82	35.03	36.425	139.21352971616	1.8306	5.0606	11.77	16.8306	T	T	5.82	-66.18	23	379.08265810299	52.773434888702	0.67480008377198	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.32	34.46	36.39	138.97310684788	1.6001	4.8901	11.8	16.6901	T	T	6.32	-59.68	23	378.94899121355	52.663718645818	0.69493625969629	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	37.57	34.02	35.795	138.75865495775	1.5865	4.5565	11.8	16.3565	T	T	5.57	-58.43	23	378.82969440304	52.56589885342	0.66453241370904	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	37.61	34.08	35.845	138.99162334812	1.5865	4.6765	11.81	16.4865	T	T	5.61	-61.39	23	378.95928865567	52.672166713101	0.66618376960284	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.85	25.99	32.42	138.61053286837	1.3484	3.9284	11.87	15.7984	T	T	6.85	-60.15	23	378.74725805197	52.49835926102	0.71565399993208	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.58	31.59	35.085	138.52342091472	1.3139	3.5239	11.9	15.4239	T	T	6.58	-69.42	23	378.69876199526	52.458648007751	0.70518355476718	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.61	31.63	35.12	135.43351063499	1.3139	3.5439	11.33	14.8739	T	T	6.61	-65.39	23	376.97162035271	51.054589954129	0.70635566355775	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.69	32.52	35.605	134.44815900807	1.4469	3.7269	11.46	15.1869	T	T	6.69	-63.31	23	376.417989799	50.608705745993	0.70947070329194	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-18 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.5	30.81	34.655	134.89640020811	1.2953	3.3653	11.56	14.9253	T	T	6.5	-59.5	23	376.67001080429	50.81142852385	0.70204744632091	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.52	30.84	34.68	135.07585519366	1.2953	3.2953	11.49	14.7853	T	T	6.52	-61.48	23	376.7708279198	50.89264179329	0.70283289676663	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-18 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.79	33.4	36.095	134.4371757238	1.1412	3.2212	11.76	14.9812	T	T	6.79	-59.21	23	376.41181090912	50.603740767704	0.71334263514775	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.72	30.71	34.715	136.58358764169	1.3386	3.3986	12.18	15.5786	T	T	6.72	-61.28	23	377.61605364647	51.576155358133	0.71063484738299	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.75	30.73	34.74	140.33344606483	1.3386	3.4486	12.29	15.7386	T	T	6.75	-65.25	23	379.70421872322	53.285201498785	0.71179679740856	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	39.35	32.39	35.87	140.04736798716	1.6963	3.4063	12.51	15.9163	T	T	7.35	-58.65	23	379.54561168988	53.154363948244	0.73456131139338	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-17 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	39.81	29.4	34.605	138.77009978403	0.5086	1.5086	12.61	14.1186	T	T	7.81	-60.19	23	378.83606265332	52.571118216192	0.75137493749367	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	39.86	29.44	34.65	137.91607139198	0.5086	1.5086	12.78	14.2886	T	T	7.86	-56.14	23	378.360346342	52.181972537996	0.75316775373557	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	39.79	28.94	34.365	139.00316845447	0.303	1.053	12.91	13.963	T	T	7.79	-57.21	23	378.96570890378	52.67743427322	0.75065587658654	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.7	27.47	33.085	141.22122075703	0.1201	1.9901	13.08	15.0701	T	T	6.7	-60.3	23	380.19568447929	53.691698688719	0.70985899453379	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	38.73	27.49	33.11	142.05926684064	0.1201	1.9901	12.62	14.6101	T	T	6.73	-68.27	23	380.658605082	54.07608235453	0.71102240830123	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.21	27.74	33.975	141.50090009133	0.0902	1.9602	12.65	14.6102	T	T	8.21	-58.79	23	380.35028355133	53.819907472506	0.76552168935207	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	40.36	28.8	34.58	140.29582106964	0.0846	2.1446	12.67	14.8146	T	T	8.36	-58.64	23	379.68336530412	53.267989481824	0.770709801045	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	34.64	30.4	32.52	141.56456843251	0.0767	2.1567	12.79	14.9467	T	T	2.64	-60.36	23	380.38546232185	53.849103811594	0.53693159032279	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	33.52	31.75	32.635	147.96776227814	0.0009	0.3809	12.75	13.1309	T	T	1.52	-60.48	23	383.89452991786	56.804014542762	0.48633448924754	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-01-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	115	-170	33.85	31.12	32.485	150.28633629181	0.0008	0.5608	12.8	13.3608	T	T	1.85	-63.15	23	385.15114238391	57.882954107482	0.50125626486093	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L