Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 22, 2020

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DAY 114 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/23/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.90°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.533 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -70 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.62 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.74 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.74 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.48 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 133 in SWE DAY: 22 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 374.61 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.73 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -171 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-23 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	114	-171	34.55006	25.25	29.90003	132.739892	1.62	2.74	12.74	15.48	T	T	2.55006	-70.44994	22	374.60799232511	49.725424443572	0.53337523504097	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-23 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	115	-171	34.6	34.6	34.6	130.98578666667	0.0418	1.1618	12.74	13.9018	T	T	2.6	-70.4	22	373.61091140167	48.937719137198	0.53555933577956	89	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.52	29.41	31.965	130.74032166437	1.0942	2.2142	12.74	14.9542	T	T	2.52	-70.48	22	373.47102778982	48.827722305564	0.53206008714074	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.11	27.14	30.625	130.68741821126	1.332	2.452	12.74	15.192	T	T	2.11	-70.89	22	373.44086817179	48.804022915945	0.51409336003745	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.13	28.85	31.49	130.09931998793	1.4062	2.5262	12.74	15.2662	T	T	2.13	-70.87	22	373.10532742166	48.540749381432	0.514970747101	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	35.02	27.46	31.24	130.29226066506	1.4954	1.5354	12.74	14.2754	T	T	3.02	-78.98	22	373.21546540414	48.627086702667	0.55387907693993	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.8	26.43	29.615	128.5480916431	1.3622	2.2522	12.74	14.9922	T	T	0.8	-80.2	22	372.21786222571	47.847895864588	0.45667478676544	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.89	26.79	30.34	127.84019406007	1.5329	2.4229	12.74	15.1629	T	T	1.89	-79.11	22	371.81170719635	47.532480801787	0.50443853346287	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.06	26.8	30.43	131.60246424648	1.5966	2.4866	12.74	15.2266	T	T	2.06	-78.94	22	373.96195409303	49.214314693072	0.51189960316144	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.8	26.95	30.375	130.99935141579	1.7124	2.6324	12.74	15.3724	T	T	1.8	-77.2	22	373.61863902859	48.943799389595	0.5004877608714	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.71	26.85	29.78	131.80946638447	1.5402	3.0002	12.74	15.7402	T	T	0.71	-75.29	22	374.07966650645	49.307241227496	0.4527494229077	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.33	25.82	30.075	138.15078703408	1.4669	3.0169	12.74	15.7569	T	T	2.33	-79.67	22	377.65585237655	52.173453233847	0.52373993208848	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.11	25.93	30.02	138.99282792476	1.6727	3.3727	12.74	16.1127	T	T	2.11	-70.89	22	378.12640362218	52.556858152465	0.51409336003745	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.83	26.92	30.875	138.59592107072	1.6796	3.3896	12.74	16.1296	T	T	2.83	-70.17	22	377.90472859813	52.376053937038	0.54560343328978	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.5	28.34	31.42	137.04971266964	1.8477	3.6677	12.74	16.4077	T	T	2.5	-70.5	22	377.03902706245	51.673090324148	0.5311848771173	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.71	28.29	31.5	137.49859116518	1.871	3.481	12.74	16.221	T	T	2.71	-70.29	22	377.29069850621	51.87693950433	0.54036626064367	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.66	28.51	31.585	134.92258026171	1.8545	3.4245	12.74	16.1645	T	T	2.66	-72.34	22	375.84250426258	50.70964044713	0.53818198349512	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	35.1	28.65	31.875	139.73740038283	1.7389	3.2689	12.74	16.0089	T	T	3.1	-78.9	22	378.54164975061	52.896426072778	0.55735676153589	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.29	29.31	31.8	139.46040551455	1.7765	3.3265	12.77	16.0965	T	T	2.29	-72.71	22	378.38726215715	52.770041021976	0.52198687835147	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	35.53	28.08	31.805	139.21725362441	1.6326	3.0126	12.77	15.7826	T	T	3.53	-71.47	22	378.25164794313	52.65915560555	0.57596714922179	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.93	27.95	30.94	139.45563401479	1.6272	3.1372	12.77	15.9072	T	T	1.93	-74.07	22	378.38460173239	52.767864536024	0.50619431569843	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.24	27.95	30.595	138.91399013507	1.4839	2.6339	12.83	15.4639	T	T	1.24	-73.76	22	378.0823899955	52.520933394079	0.47591924864089	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.13	27.57	29.85	138.90226091472	1.1343	2.2743	12.85	15.1243	T	T	0.13	-82.87	22	378.07584104341	52.515589118163	0.42757967204395	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.16	26.89	29.525	135.81677863499	1.1044	2.3144	12.26	14.5744	T	T	0.16	-78.84	22	376.34628310539	51.114139822627	0.4288752568596	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-18 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	31.39	26.67	29.03	134.9181283414	1.2546	2.3346	12.42	14.7546	T	T	-0.61	-76.61	22	375.8399932494	50.707628445055	0.39590257821749	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-18 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.18	26	29.59	135.31673220811	1.0052	2.1252	12.51	14.6352	T	T	1.18	-72.82	22	376.06470497751	50.887846976365	0.47329068225305	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.22	26.02	29.62	135.50012319366	1.0052	2.0652	12.43	14.4952	T	T	1.22	-74.78	22	376.16801470132	50.970812333544	0.47504293772209	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-18 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.28	28.99	30.635	134.88795705713	1.1293	2.1593	12.69	14.8493	T	T	0.28	-72.72	22	375.82297501492	50.693993314897	0.43406512636922	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.29	26.55	29.92	136.96291964169	1.1745	2.1745	13.08	15.2545	T	T	1.29	-74.71	22	376.99033194593	51.633696540006	0.4781105263119	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	33.33	26.57	29.95	140.7162767315	1.1745	2.2245	13.19	15.4145	T	T	1.33	-78.67	22	379.08637302514	53.343622971747	0.47986402821096	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.8	25.95	29.375	140.51006665383	1.0314	1.9114	13.32	15.2314	T	T	0.8	-73.2	22	378.97173420483	53.249343633037	0.45667478676544	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-17 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.03	28.3	30.165	138.98920378403	0.2826	1.3026	13.32	14.6226	T	T	0.030000000000001	-74.97	22	378.12438052715	52.555206580799	0.42326676845184	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	32.04	28.32	30.18	138.13741672531	0.2826	1.3626	13.43	14.7926	T	T	0.039999999999999	-70.96	22	377.6483726296	52.16737062557	0.42369765426344	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	31.92	28.27	30.095	139.22620845447	0.1906	1.0606	13.61	14.6706	T	T	-0.079999999999998	-72.08	22	378.25664384702	52.663238345534	0.4185331897702	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	30.67	26.25	28.46	141.32599464215	0.8006	2.2406	13.72	15.9606	T	T	-1.33	-74.33	22	379.42498380915	53.622613228909	0.36572600219617	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	30.69	26.27	28.48	142.15924332467	0.8006	2.1806	13.32	15.5006	T	T	-1.31	-82.31	22	379.8868866485	54.004432354915	0.36655408286924	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	31.16	26.85	29.005	141.7223033779	0.8006	2.1106	13.42	15.5306	T	T	-0.84	-73.84	22	379.64479539271	53.804134868486	0.38618511011584	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	30.92	28.59	29.755	140.48753706964	0.8781	2.2881	13.45	15.7381	T	T	-1.08	-74.08	22	378.95920564486	53.239045450913	0.3761207765606	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	35.22	27.51	31.365	141.59682176584	0.8858	2.3058	13.57	15.8758	T	T	3.22	-69.78	22	379.57522128797	53.746644955443	0.56256493079796	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	36.05	27.56	31.805	147.99506543454	0.0812	0.4912	13.65	14.1412	T	T	4.05	-68.95	22	383.09465932368	56.696119174233	0.5982447705878	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	35.55	27.76	31.655	150.3086474633	0.1895	0.5895	13.78	14.3695	T	T	3.55	-72.45	22	384.35326084753	57.7716187861	0.5768289715095	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	35.57	27.79	31.68	155.23888232376	0.1895	0.5895	13.73	14.3195	T	T	3.57	-66.43	22	387.01078864549	60.079122276564	0.57769042638009	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	34.77	26.57	30.67	151.84358940894	0.0504	0.4704	13.63	14.1004	T	T	2.77	-64.23	22	385.18420586258	58.487752401805	0.54298578014446	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-01-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	35.25	25.8	30.525	152.66698122844	0.0205	0.4705	13.79	14.2605	T	T	3.25	-68.75	22	385.62861802513	58.872756989193	0.56386531743894	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-01-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	31.6	25.82	28.71	154.18598615549	0.0192	0.4692	13.89	14.3592	T	T	-0.4	-68.4	22	386.44604092967	59.584563916626	0.4048320653487	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-01-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	29.03	27.74	28.385	166.97094540569	0.3627	2.1327	13.67	15.8027	T	T	-2.97	-69.97	22	393.2024567915	65.653385946317	0.30025681807322	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-171	27.1	26.23	26.665	162.76827892844	0.0735	1.7835	13.62	15.4035	T	T	-4.9	-73.9	22	391.00565268249	63.643317138418	0.23084573698914	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L