Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 1, 2019

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DAY 62 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/02/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.82°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.48°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.361 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 68 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.53 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.53 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.95 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.48 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 13 in SWE DAY: 31 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.74 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 4.11 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 142 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 27.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-02 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	62	142	31.82	19.14998	25.48499	13.441574166667	0.52999999999997	0.52999999999997	4.95	5.48	T	F	-0.18	67.82	31	305.74102366163	4.1096406453404	0.36063786544986	91	2	3	1	3	3	2	27	WET	L
2019-12-02 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	28.51	28.51	28.51	13.024570005109	0.0061	0.0061	4.95	4.9561	T	F	-3.49	64.51	31	305.43140768664	3.9781127511734	0.23920348297573	91	1	3	1	1	3	2	7.5	WET	L
2019-12-01 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	41.14	28.38	34.76	12.585045384442	0.1508	0.1508	4.95	5.1008	T	F	9.14	77.14	31	305.10471560865	3.839756692942	0.73716405549617	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-12-01 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.45	24.48	32.465	12.918172617565	0.3083	0.3083	4.95	5.2583	T	F	8.45	76.45	31	305.35235755432	3.9445944640672	0.71267744439486	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-12-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	41.1	24.31	32.705	13.130332965906	0.5246	0.5246	4.95	5.4746	T	F	9.1	77.1	31	305.50996528882	4.0114475686444	0.73577418012189	91	4	3	1	3	3	2	36	WET	M
2019-12-01 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.55	23.55	31.05	12.816580056505	0.5396	0.5396	4.95	5.4896	T	F	6.55	70.55	31	305.27685732637	3.9126052813218	0.64024471633024	91	3	3	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2019-11-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	42.32	26.39	34.355	12.810269110729	0.2557	0.2657	4.95	5.2157	T	F	10.32	89.32	31	305.27216659766	3.9106186061313	0.77642296967006	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-30 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.37	26.4	32.385	12.924034418633	0.2379	0.2479	4.95	5.1979	T	F	6.37	85.37	31	305.35671325635	3.9464406720857	0.6330590285549	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.2	26.51	33.355	12.613246341314	0.2747	0.2847	4.95	5.2347	T	F	8.2	87.2	31	305.12568790977	3.8486254666689	0.70354683695468	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-30 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.71	25.39	33.05	12.590172268132	0.2678	0.2778	4.95	5.2278	T	F	8.71	87.71	31	305.10852844734	3.8413689336281	0.72202988578961	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-30 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	41.07	26.67	33.87	12.665584730196	0.3318	0.3418	4.95	5.2918	T	F	9.07	83.07	31	305.16460659573	3.865088181495	0.7347293260383	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-30 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	41.27	26.72	33.995	13.549427480385	0.3441	0.3541	4.95	5.3041	T	F	9.27	74.27	31	305.82104889666	4.1437001240005	0.74165522092286	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.94	26.85	33.895	13.548976402307	0.1605	0.1705	4.95	5.1205	T	F	8.94	95.94	31	305.82071425042	4.1435576407154	0.7301775483478	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.34	25.43	32.885	13.605498453325	0.1605	0.1805	4.95	5.1305	T	F	8.34	95.34	31	305.86264389805	4.1614137284848	0.7086763626167	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.11	27.12	33.615	13.521022771899	0.117	0.127	4.95	5.077	T	F	8.11	95.11	31	305.7999752361	4.1347284288135	0.70022760219337	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-29 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.61	25.98	33.295	13.405656156105	0.133	0.143	4.95	5.093	T	F	8.61	97.61	31	305.71436827198	4.0983017030349	0.71845039826902	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-29 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.68	26.84	33.26	13.164031335603	0.1023	0.1123	4.95	5.0623	T	F	7.68	90.68	31	305.53499100919	4.022072195768	0.68414229905567	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.57	27.23	33.4	14.447688936279	0.0548	0.0648	4.95	5.0148	T	F	7.57	89.57	31	306.4866919378	4.4280243882265	0.67996919191895	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	M
2019-11-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.35	26.39	33.37	14.377428270628	0.1026	0.1126	4.96	5.0726	T	F	8.35	108.35	31	306.43468106872	4.4057426466983	0.70904116851113	91	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-28 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.76	26.59	33.675	14.480340513517	0.0386	0.0486	4.96	5.0086	T	F	8.76	108.76	31	306.51085930013	4.4383816137565	0.72381127314419	91	4	3	1	1	3	2	12	WET	M
2019-11-28 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.68	26.41	33.545	14.477051451409	0.0421	0.0421	4.96	5.0021	T	F	8.68	108.68	31	306.50842496163	4.4373382384597	0.72095837192609	91	4	3	1	1	3	2	12	WET	M
2019-11-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	36.46	25.26	30.86	14.754975644028	0.2207	0.2207	4.96	5.1807	T	F	4.46	102.46	31	306.71405368491	4.5255583918021	0.554405606707	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-11-28 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.53	25.77	32.65	14.340408568739	0.1512	0.1512	4.96	5.1112	T	F	7.53	100.53	31	306.40727328375	4.3940054873223	0.67844600264468	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.42	26.2	32.81	13.619717791753	0.1528	0.1528	4.96	5.1128	T	F	7.42	102.42	31	305.8731912557	4.1659065449655	0.67424180957759	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.9	25.67	32.285	13.520188261167	0.0766	0.0766	4.98	5.0566	T	F	6.9	118.9	31	305.79935608351	4.1344648643926	0.65407397108162	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	M
2019-11-27 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.94	23.68	31.31	13.55802619292	0.0638	0.0638	4.97	5.0338	T	F	6.94	118.94	31	305.82742804446	4.1464162799402	0.6556418687591	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.91	23.68	31.295	13.59700799226	0.0638	0.0738	4.98	5.0538	T	F	6.91	117.91	31	305.85634581936	4.1587311785893	0.654466194384	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.67	23.74	31.205	13.758385215377	0.0306	0.0306	4.97	5.0006	T	F	6.67	107.67	31	305.97602944125	4.2097360797242	0.64500797445982	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.91	24.54	31.725	13.791828643527	0.0592	0.0592	5	5.0592	T	F	6.91	111.91	31	306.0008262514	4.220310960437	0.654466194384	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.89	24.54	31.715	9.926363207043	0.0592	0.0592	4.97	5.0292	T	F	6.89	108.89	31	303.12076228281	3.0088867820149	0.65368158247891	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-26 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.36	25.36	32.36	10.099597211815	0.4581	0.4681	5	5.4681	T	F	7.36	119.36	31	303.2504408517	3.0627073069075	0.67193920133498	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.95	26.06	33.005	10.208371396805	0.3519	0.3719	5	5.3719	T	F	7.95	119.95	31	303.33183728157	3.0965240514455	0.69428562095181	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-26 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.94	26.05	32.995	10.334077703348	0.3519	0.3719	5	5.3719	T	F	7.94	117.94	31	303.42587612019	3.1356265810324	0.69391252209432	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.57	26.98	32.775	10.296076791298	0.0646	0.0646	5.04	5.1046	T	F	6.57	111.57	31	303.39745142378	3.1238034581435	0.64104012995499	91	3	3	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	M
2019-11-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.89	25.89	32.39	10.421483364958	0.1011	0.1111	5.09	5.2011	T	F	6.89	115.89	31	303.4912451759	3.162828963011	0.65368158247891	91	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-11-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.89	25.9	32.395	6.556942727935	0.1011	0.1111	4.34	4.4511	T	F	6.89	113.89	31	300.58711846109	1.9709325205044	0.65368158247891	91	3	3	1	2	4	2	28	WET	M
2019-11-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.51	22.79	30.65	6.4270394751455	0.0878	0.0878	4.51	4.5978	T	F	6.51	124.51	31	300.48900262268	1.931254681703	0.63865206933803	91	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-25 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	37.16	22	29.58	6.2850717510959	0.0326	0.0326	4.51	4.5426	T	F	5.16	124.16	31	300.38173746753	1.8879207727023	0.58365728564822	91	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-25 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	37.18	21.99	29.585	6.4599396635071	0.0326	0.0326	4.51	4.5426	T	F	5.18	124.18	31	300.51385517394	1.9413013724716	0.58448707485267	91	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-25 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.26	21.55	29.905	6.665210298228	0.0023	0.0023	4.55	4.5523	T	F	6.26	118.26	31	300.668868152	2.0040212363632	0.62864453521558	91	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.75	20.61	29.68	6.8193370191949	0.0023	0.0023	4.7	4.7023	T	F	6.75	127.75	31	300.78520597813	2.0511556899528	0.64817099580996	91	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-25 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	62	142	38.76	20.61	29.685	6.8910334137214	0.0023	0.0023	4.13	4.1323	T	F	6.76	121.76	31	300.83930828283	2.0730937255378	0.64856565912541	91	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	40.54	23.15	31.845	6.7435288793115	0	0	4.2	4.2	T	F	8.54	136.54	31	300.72799022132	2.0279678868748	0.71593161452578	91	4	3	1	1	4	2	16	WET	L
2019-11-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	62	142	39.67	21.42	30.545	6.8040595120896	0.0007	0.0007	4.24	4.2407	T	F	7.67	132.67	31	300.77367625405	2.0464819929025	0.68376388274599	91	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-24 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	32.84	21.19	27.015	6.4043803718655	0.0007	0.0007	4.25	4.2507	T	F	0.84	126.84	31	300.47188490116	1.9243362419584	0.4019678702374	91	2	3	1	1	4	2	12	WET	L
2019-11-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	21.18	20.1	20.64	7.0461803832518	0.001	0.001	4.49	4.491	T	F	-10.82	109.18	31	300.95634890788	2.1205927218898	0.068181231262812	91	1	3	1	1	4	2	10	WET	L
2019-11-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	62	142	22.02	21.31	21.665	6.301981789996	0.0007	0.0007	4.52	4.5207	T	F	-9.98	107.02	31	300.3945160484	1.8930807699516	0.080771068384299	91	1	3	1	1	4	2	10	WET	L