Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 31, 2019

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DAY 31 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/31/2019 12:00:53 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.43°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.42°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.93°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.750 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 100 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.36 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 10 in SWE DAY: 63 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.50 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 111 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-31 12:02:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	47.43	30.42	38.925	10.424742666667	0.0057	0.0057	7.36	7.3657	T	T	15.43	100.43	62	336.20993496307	3.5049020539668	0.74959886778421	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-31 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	47.86	25.17	36.515	10.23562374919	0.0046	0.0046	7.36	7.3646	T	T	15.86	100.86	62	336.08419878984	3.4400314068608	0.76384272981471	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-31 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	31	111	47.83	30.14	38.985	10.195197789646	0.0071	0.0071	7.36	7.3671	T	T	15.83	100.83	62	336.05731365588	3.4261707813788	0.76286365123515	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-31 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	47.95	31.67	39.81	10.166467314043	0.0063	0.0063	7.36	7.3663	T	T	15.95	100.95	62	336.03820488178	3.4163214262002	0.766766583798	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-31 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	42.61	25.44	34.025	10.357915897436	0.0052	0.0052	7.36	7.3652	T	T	10.61	95.61	62	336.16551192297	3.4819741001166	0.56489500070303	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-31 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	43.58	24.82	34.2	10.334299897436	0.0076	0.0076	7.36	7.3676	T	T	11.58	96.58	62	336.14981140303	3.4738729615055	0.60487613074762	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-30 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	46.64	34.06	40.35	11.014524	0	0.01	7.36	7.37	T	T	14.64	99.64	63	337.59271434764	3.7184230544072	0.72229000230499	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-30 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	46.64	34.06	40.35	10.25629057072	0	0.01	7.36	7.37	T	T	14.64	99.64	63	337.09090211732	3.4573022408613	0.72229000230499	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-30 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	43.16	34.25	38.705	10.807070084425	0.0008	0.0108	7.36	7.3708	T	T	11.16	93.16	63	337.45551371827	3.6469053871289	0.58767387228835	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-30 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	31	111	42.91	32.7	37.805	7.8637527954769	0.0004	0.0104	7.36	7.3704	T	T	10.91	86.91	63	335.50112757165	2.6382979298272	0.57735159112348	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	43.09	32.59	37.84	7.8576273052496	0.0004	0.0004	7.36	7.3604	T	T	11.09	87.09	63	335.4970449427	2.6362107411723	0.58478941568485	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	31	111	43.07	32.42	37.745	7.8952646129531	0.0002	0.0102	7.36	7.3702	T	T	11.07	96.07	63	335.52212914121	2.6490359930713	0.58396443804289	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	42.83	32.6	37.715	7.8760416538318	0.0014	0.0114	7.36	7.3714	T	T	10.83	95.83	63	335.50931788357	2.6424853628997	0.57403685274683	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 12:02:14	FORECAST	2020	31	111	42.88	33.78	38.33	7.8074797536694	0.0006	0.0106	7.36	7.3706	T	T	10.88	95.88	63	335.46361929502	2.6191254157385	0.57610919269919	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	42.61	32.26	37.435	7.9158914393354	0	0.01	7.36	7.37	T	T	10.61	95.61	63	335.53587531899	2.6560655630275	0.56489500070303	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	31	111	44.98	33.25	39.115	7.7237084013833	0.001	0.011	7.36	7.371	T	T	12.98	99.98	63	335.40777234142	2.5905918291227	0.66058821724447	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	45.53	35.14	40.335	7.5944379670575	0.0014	0.0014	7.36	7.3614	T	T	13.53	98.53	63	335.32156967994	2.5465788599507	0.68162390144235	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	45.27	35.02	40.145	7.6579392891123	0.0002	0.0002	7.37	7.3702	T	T	13.27	116.27	63	335.36391842133	2.5681965270294	0.67174735928789	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 12:02:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	45.85	32.27	39.06	7.7231376183345	0.0011	0.0011	7.37	7.3711	T	T	13.85	116.85	63	335.40739178281	2.5903974449453	0.69360424635798	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	40.64	33.1	36.87	7.7782790563734	0.0008	0.0008	7.37	7.3708	T	T	8.64	112.64	63	335.44415372685	2.6091782355165	0.48206351315637	91	2	5	1	1	3	2	12	WET	H
2019-10-28 08:02:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	41.17	33.11	37.14	7.7371517693988	0.0004	0.0004	7.37	7.3704	T	T	9.17	113.17	63	335.41673528862	2.5951701869243	0.50442133145165	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	41.18	33.11	37.145	7.7332592906469	0.0004	0.0004	7.37	7.3704	T	T	9.18	112.18	63	335.41414013104	2.5938445153827	0.50484326441825	91	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	31	111	47.35	32.38	39.865	7.5395706880264	0.0018	0.0018	7.37	7.3718	T	T	15.35	121.35	63	335.28497344135	2.5279047578941	0.74689956540286	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	49.64	34.08	41.86	7.3362084834431	0.0002	0.0002	7.37	7.3702	T	T	17.64	121.64	63	335.14928723497	2.4587250442331	0.81781182789711	91	4	5	1	1	4	2	20	WET	H
2019-10-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	48.84	33.72	41.28	7.5022272775976	0.0014	0.0014	7.35	7.3514	T	T	16.84	122.84	63	335.26006263052	2.5151971869557	0.79457636365462	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-27 08:02:15	FORECAST	2020	31	111	48.85	33.72	41.285	7.4741964964198	0.0014	0.0014	7.36	7.3614	T	T	16.85	122.85	63	335.24136247818	2.5056598168894	0.79487723378804	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-27 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	48.86	33.73	41.295	7.46862320784	0.0014	0.0014	7.36	7.3614	T	T	16.86	122.86	63	335.237644216	2.5037636497332	0.79517784241638	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-27 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	48.54	35.45	41.995	7.8240858778096	0.0013	0.0113	7.36	7.3713	T	T	16.54	122.54	63	335.4746885114	2.6247827727447	0.78542922197159	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	48.55	35.45	42	7.809303045145	0.0013	0.0113	7.35	7.3613	T	T	16.55	123.55	63	335.46483467716	2.6197465549834	0.78573788378974	91	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-27 00:02:16	FORECAST	2020	31	111	48.57	35.46	42.015	19.172820307835	0.0013	0.0013	7.23	7.2313	T	T	16.57	120.57	63	342.93131634231	6.5749605061603	0.78635443342689	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	49.76	35.83	42.795	19.089408022786	0.0012	0.0012	7.24	7.2412	T	T	17.76	120.76	63	342.8772911173	6.5453245118856	0.82115009921888	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:02:14	FORECAST	2020	31	111	49.77	35.84	42.805	19.068810097648	0.0012	0.0012	7.26	7.2612	T	T	17.77	131.77	63	342.86394830405	6.5380075195396	0.82142654392052	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	49.78	35.85	42.815	19.072379358025	0.0012	0.0012	7.27	7.2712	T	T	17.78	131.78	63	342.86626043036	6.5392753879952	0.8217027199958	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	31	111	49.54	33.28	41.41	19.190466804732	0.0008	0.0008	7.25	7.2508	T	T	17.54	129.54	63	342.94274431857	6.5812313507691	0.81500045641665	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	49.55	33.28	41.415	19.20376230028	0.0008	0.0008	7.25	7.2508	T	T	17.55	129.55	63	342.95135422215	6.5859562870414	0.81528279772377	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	31	111	50.58	34.43	42.505	18.669156564215	0.0008	0.0008	7.25	7.2508	T	T	18.58	142.58	63	342.60492466586	6.396144978258	0.84292341242778	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	50.67	34.36	42.515	18.676960252523	0.0016	0.0016	7.24	7.2416	T	T	18.67	141.67	63	342.60998491342	6.3989130703456	0.84520253703615	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	31	111	50.7	34.36	42.53	19.726919355733	0.0016	0.0016	7.57	7.5716	T	T	18.7	159.7	63	343.28990981715	6.7720523665999	0.84595737892926	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	31	111	50.72	34.36	42.54	19.713344677747	0.0016	0.0016	7.57	7.5716	T	T	18.72	159.72	63	343.28113079084	6.7672192526464	0.84645925529885	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-25 00:01:18	FORECAST	2020	31	111	52.62	37.64	45.13	16.918702164718	0.001	0.001	7.54	7.541	T	T	20.62	181.62	63	341.46731628379	5.777183823191	0.88925091224024	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:02:15	FORECAST	2020	31	111	51.67	36.5	44.085	18.632731534616	0.001	0.001	7.52	7.521	T	T	19.67	197.67	63	342.58130378126	6.3832254621351	0.86905661171005	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	51.69	36.51	44.1	18.598500941261	0.001	0.001	7.52	7.521	T	T	19.69	198.69	63	342.5591039516	6.3710858172814	0.86950632572011	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	31	111	51.19	36.63	43.91	18.890349161857	0.0008	0.0008	7.52	7.5208	T	T	19.19	197.19	63	342.74831660863	6.4746353753756	0.85794242930543	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	31	111	51.2	36.63	43.915	18.961833351194	0.0008	0.0008	7.52	7.5208	T	T	19.2	197.2	63	342.79464025358	6.5000148421706	0.8581802817626	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-24 12:01:15	FORECAST	2020	31	111	41.95	37.53	39.74	16.536043793609	0.0003	0.0003	7.52	7.5203	T	T	9.95	196.95	63	341.21795479255	5.6423950436152	0.53727999074366	91	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	31	111	38.91	37.53	38.22	16.501089483227	0	0	7.37	7.37	T	T	6.91	193.91	63	341.19516453541	5.630091941243	0.40983961723314	91	2	5	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L