Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 30, 2019

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DAY 30 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/31/2019 04:00:53 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.01°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.17°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.09°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.793 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 94 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.37 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 11 in SWE DAY: 64 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.61 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.74 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 110 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-31 04:02:13	OBSERVATION	2020	30	110	49.01	27.17006	38.09003	11.057922564103	0	0	7.37	7.37	T	T	17.01	94.01	64	338.60858887058	3.7443075552709	0.79313517540357	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-31 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	30	110	49.01	27.17006	38.09003	11.057922564103	0	0	7.37	7.37	T	T	17.01	94.01	64	338.60858887058	3.7443075552709	0.79313517540357	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-30 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	49.05	24.21	36.63	11.242203904053	0.005	0.005	7.37	7.375	T	T	17.05	94.05	63	337.74320834165	3.7969780153859	0.79430926758888	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-30 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	45.83	23.01	34.42	11.486850084425	0.0059	0.0059	7.37	7.3759	T	T	13.83	90.83	63	337.9048198917	3.8814620089004	0.6879691584143	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-30 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.29	21.24	33.765	8.3969955150354	0.005	0.005	7.37	7.375	T	T	14.29	85.29	64	336.85016614564	2.8285293343638	0.70451613831282	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.29	23.71	35	8.4022471882816	0.0037	0.0037	7.37	7.3737	T	T	14.29	85.29	64	336.85364833142	2.8303276195551	0.70451613831282	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-29 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.28	29.81	38.045	8.4117790779138	0.0015	0.0115	7.37	7.3815	T	T	14.28	94.28	64	336.85996844805	2.833591634778	0.70416074146001	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-29 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.29	28.77	37.53	8.3996319524711	0.0028	0.0128	7.37	7.3828	T	T	14.29	94.29	64	336.85191427333	2.8294321023813	0.70451613831282	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-29 12:02:14	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.07	28.66	37.365	8.4200744203361	0	0.01	7.37	7.38	T	T	14.07	94.07	64	336.86546854788	2.8364323148145	0.6966525436534	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.03	28.82	37.425	8.427134106002	0.0002	0.0102	7.37	7.3802	T	T	14.03	94.03	64	336.87014927313	2.8388499242336	0.69521281852754	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-29 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.54	28.17	37.355	8.4270826719822	0.0021	0.0121	7.37	7.3821	T	T	14.54	95.54	64	336.87011517156	2.8388323102709	0.71333658244517	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	45.65	27.17	36.41	8.4726033003909	0.0015	0.0015	7.37	7.3715	T	T	13.65	93.65	64	336.90029432759	2.8544225456226	0.68138707214633	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	45.28	27.1	36.19	8.5062566224457	0.0009	0.0109	7.37	7.3809	T	T	13.28	112.28	64	336.92260348225	2.8659501271225	0.66767802218326	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 12:02:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	44.91	25.33	35.12	8.4575842850011	0.0009	0.0109	7.37	7.3809	T	T	12.91	111.91	64	336.89033744283	2.8492784237252	0.65374102582889	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	44.87	25.2	35.035	8.38890572304	0.0008	0.0108	7.37	7.3808	T	T	12.87	112.87	64	336.84480201983	2.8257592874405	0.65222136426124	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 08:02:12	FORECAST	2020	30	110	44.94	25.24	35.09	8.3677864360655	0.0009	0.0109	7.37	7.3809	T	T	12.94	112.94	64	336.83079786313	2.8185281816082	0.65487915236037	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	30	110	44.94	25.25	35.095	8.3646046239803	0.0009	0.0109	7.37	7.3809	T	T	12.94	111.94	64	336.82868794482	2.8174388006725	0.65487915236037	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	30	110	45.28	25.97	35.625	8.2909031567419	0.0002	0.0102	7.37	7.3802	T	T	13.28	115.28	64	336.77981036955	2.7922087929198	0.66767802218326	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	43.85	24.7	34.275	8.2860964834431	0.0023	0.0123	7.37	7.3823	T	T	11.85	112.85	64	336.7766223467	2.7905635861329	0.61270494165391	89	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2019-10-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	38.87	23.84	31.355	8.3818686109309	0.001	0.001	7.36	7.361	T	T	6.87	114.87	64	336.8401358084	2.8233497612342	0.41059527540038	89	2	5	1	1	3	2	12	WET	L
2019-10-27 08:02:15	FORECAST	2020	30	110	38.6	23.81	31.205	8.3546031630865	0.0006	0.0006	7.37	7.3706	T	T	6.6	114.6	64	336.82205568051	2.8140146117856	0.39982726972533	89	2	5	1	1	3	2	12	WET	L
2019-10-27 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	30	110	38.59	23.82	31.205	8.3498498745066	0.0006	0.0006	7.37	7.3706	T	T	6.59	114.59	64	336.8189035753	2.8123872797497	0.39942985939899	89	2	5	1	1	3	2	12	WET	L
2019-10-27 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.39	23.3	34.845	8.7584485444763	0.0008	0.0108	7.37	7.3808	T	T	14.39	115.39	64	337.08972358442	2.9523829988859	0.7080592673638	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.39	23.3	34.845	8.7440483784784	0.0008	0.0108	7.36	7.3708	T	T	14.39	116.39	64	337.08018390332	2.947445435477	0.7080592673638	89	4	5	1	1	3	2	15	WET	H
2019-10-27 00:02:16	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.4	26.51	36.455	20.108768307835	0.0002	0.0002	7.24	7.2402	T	T	14.4	113.4	64	344.50148172069	6.9275004776272	0.70841249051364	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.34	24.26	35.3	20.129878689452	0.0004	0.0104	7.24	7.2504	T	T	14.34	112.34	64	344.51506867855	6.9350465391876	0.70629017297657	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:02:14	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.34	23.68	35.01	20.109718097648	0.0005	0.0105	7.26	7.2705	T	T	14.34	123.34	64	344.5020930353	6.9278399749894	0.70629017297657	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	46.35	23.68	35.015	20.113834024692	0.0005	0.0105	7.27	7.2805	T	T	14.35	123.35	64	344.50474215839	6.929311204493	0.70664438813149	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	30	110	45.39	24.94	35.165	20.117558804732	0.0004	0.0004	7.26	7.2604	T	T	13.39	121.39	64	344.50713950471	6.9306426376359	0.67177822637109	89	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	45.4	24.94	35.17	20.131619633614	0.0004	0.0004	7.26	7.2604	T	T	13.4	121.4	64	344.51618914378	6.9356688774646	0.6721499581811	89	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	30	110	47.03	28.58	37.805	19.771455230882	0.0004	0.0004	7.26	7.2604	T	T	15.03	133.03	64	344.28428311869	6.8070012903775	0.73025351146418	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	47.21	26.59	36.9	19.77007491919	0.0025	0.0025	7.25	7.2525	T	T	15.21	132.21	64	344.28339394254	6.8065084916769	0.73634002806876	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	30	110	47.23	26.59	36.91	20.822056689067	0.0025	0.0025	7.58	7.5825	T	T	15.23	150.23	64	344.96016148416	7.1827800378927	0.7370119630181	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-25 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	30	110	47.23	26.59	36.91	20.809356677747	0.0025	0.0025	7.58	7.5825	T	T	15.23	150.23	64	344.95200201197	7.1782292465699	0.7370119630181	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-25 00:01:18	FORECAST	2020	30	110	51.3	35.54	43.42	18.313084831384	0.0013	0.0013	7.55	7.5513	T	T	19.3	170.3	64	343.34308220605	6.2876709907084	0.85385415649769	89	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:02:15	FORECAST	2020	30	110	50.13	34.46	42.295	19.734483534616	0.0013	0.0013	7.53	7.5313	T	T	18.13	187.13	64	344.26046542811	6.7938024866104	0.82449661929217	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	50.14	34.46	42.3	19.608248941261	0.0013	0.0013	7.53	7.5313	T	T	18.14	188.14	64	344.17912645661	6.7487499919469	0.82476235522258	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	30	110	49.71	33.76	41.735	19.757089161857	0.0014	0.0014	7.53	7.5314	T	T	17.71	186.71	64	344.27502855917	6.8018724354443	0.81310628618494	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	30	110	49.71	33.76	41.735	19.742418684527	0.0014	0.0014	7.53	7.5314	T	T	17.71	186.71	64	344.26557755263	6.7966351707144	0.81310628618494	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-24 12:01:15	FORECAST	2020	30	110	50.73	36.2	43.465	16.932158460275	0.0016	0.0016	7.53	7.5316	T	T	18.73	195.73	64	342.44864259966	5.7983946810037	0.83998901282226	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	30	110	50.74	36.19	43.465	16.769557483227	0.0016	0.0016	7.38	7.3816	T	T	18.74	195.74	64	342.34311774357	5.7409425919878	0.84023942273891	89	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-23 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	30	110	41.81	28.88	35.345	19.177457188892	0.0016	0.0016	7.37	7.3716	T	T	9.81	180.81	64	343.90135032776	6.5951534231127	0.53048185327892	89	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-23 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	30	110	41.97	29.26	35.615	19.137556403288	0.0007	0.0007	7.37	7.3707	T	T	9.97	178.97	64	343.87560676927	6.5809388202616	0.53702577102585	89	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2019-10-23 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	30	110	43.36	33.98	38.67	18.104160181968	0	0	7.35	7.35	T	T	11.36	183.36	64	343.20796099132	6.2134919015133	0.59326813924537	89	3	5	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L