Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 21, 2019

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DAY 21 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/22/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.56°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.22°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.353 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 174 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.59 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.93 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.28 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.21 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 25 in SWE DAY: 73 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.19 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 8.50 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 101 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-22 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	21	101	42.56006	31.22006	36.89006	0	1.59	3.93	5.28	9.21	T	T	10.56006	173.56006	73	340.18877064411	0	0.3531584814416	92	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-22 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	21	101	41.58	41.58	41.58	29.947629333333	0.0264	2.3664	5.28	7.6464	T	T	9.58	172.58	72	358.15575399258	10.72591576417	0.31912099919202	92	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	21	101	44.05	35.55	39.8	29.541128	0.6686	3.0086	5.28	8.2886	T	T	12.05	175.05	72	357.90808701147	10.573008610641	0.40714598693959	92	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:41	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.03	33.64	37.835	29.572069333333	0.7842	3.1242	5.28	8.4042	T	T	10.03	173.03	72	357.92694747156	10.584640506897	0.33458215654988	92	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	41.92	32.98	37.45	0	0.8834	3.2234	5.28	8.5034	T	T	9.92	172.92	72	339.20760493838	0	0.33077550106448	92	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	21	101	41.88	32.76	37.32	0	1.2011	3.5411	5.28	8.8211	T	T	9.88	172.88	72	339.20760493838	0	0.32939556113671	92	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	21	101	40.87	32.8	36.835	0	1.5262	3.3862	5.28	8.6662	T	T	8.87	171.87	73	340.18877064411	0	0.29536174217771	92	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	21	101	40.68	32.09	36.385	0	1.6132	3.9432	5.28	9.2232	T	T	8.68	175.68	73	340.18877064411	0	0.28914426553601	92	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.4	32.58	37.49	0	1.3841	3.7141	5.28	8.9941	T	T	10.4	177.4	73	340.18877064411	0	0.34750962820725	92	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	40.72	33.8	37.26	0	1.3919	3.7219	5.28	9.0019	T	T	8.72	175.72	73	340.18877064411	0	0.29044808830848	92	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	41	34.84	37.92	0.86752814156701	1.5132	4.0232	5.28	9.3032	T	T	9	175	73	340.75601767349	0.29561543474006	0.29965089521267	92	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	41	34.12	37.56	0.92277272823314	1.42	3.97	5.28	9.25	T	T	9	176	73	340.79209790708	0.31447365394601	0.29965089521267	92	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-20 00:01:14	FORECAST	2020	21	101	40.03	32.31	36.17	2.9490138195735	1.9702	2.5602	5.28	7.8402	T	T	8.03	171.03	73	342.11194359444	1.0088928495012	0.26835234337296	92	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	40.14	32.15	36.145	1.2634707078284	2.0209	3.1709	5.28	8.4509	T	T	8.14	168.14	73	341.01449586729	0.43086182647319	0.27181753719225	92	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.86	34.11	36.985	1.023202793111	1.537	2.817	5.28	8.097	T	T	7.86	171.86	73	340.85767580527	0.34876652593726	0.26304105131945	92	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.88	32.18	36.03	3.798291159345	2.4701	3.8101	5.28	9.0901	T	T	7.88	171.88	73	342.66312578562	1.3015343213051	0.26366311309686	92	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.17	32.27	35.72	4.8359619752053	2.2465	3.9565	5.28	9.2365	T	T	7.17	173.17	73	343.33496373345	1.6603548293735	0.24204794162071	92	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2019-10-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	40.67	32.07	36.37	5.7288541229189	2.2233	4.3133	5.28	9.5933	T	T	8.67	176.67	73	343.91164931016	1.9702196700704	0.28881873991413	92	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.28	32.92	36.1	8.7063183798818	1.9426	4.2726	4.01	8.2826	T	T	7.28	168.28	73	345.82525685195	3.0108647899575	0.24533273441207	92	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2019-10-18 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.79	33.75	36.77	7.3791363586715	1.9578	4.3478	4.75	9.0978	T	T	7.79	171.79	73	344.9740683313	2.5456106904223	0.26086974963582	92	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.88	34.9	38.89	8.5685298378897	2.35	5.07	4.75	9.82	T	T	10.88	175.88	73	345.7370195633	2.9624579681912	0.36454618687444	92	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	44.14	33.62	38.88	9.7622399158957	2.1775	5.0775	4.75	9.8275	T	T	12.14	181.14	73	346.50042575292	3.3826202871601	0.41047609476282	92	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	44.16	33	38.58	8.9439491283848	1.2762	3.8262	5	8.8262	T	T	12.16	181.16	73	345.97735874747	3.0944038962103	0.41121700495817	92	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	43.62	32.55	38.085	9.9561900159405	1.2762	3.8262	5.12	8.9462	T	T	11.62	180.62	73	346.62424304251	3.4510568278628	0.3913318909098	92	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.31	34.41	36.86	12.949560558055	1.6615	4.1115	4.46	8.5715	T	T	7.31	171.31	73	348.52748861254	4.5132778199347	0.24623272113913	92	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2019-10-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.32	34.47	36.895	11.435338556536	1.6546	4.0446	5.24	9.2846	T	T	7.32	182.32	73	347.56652423108	3.9745408755011	0.2465331090249	92	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2019-10-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	38.57	33.93	36.25	17.05626282511	1.4097	4.1097	5.36	9.4697	T	T	6.57	176.57	73	351.11517960733	5.9887127852682	0.22455721875477	92	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.33	32.23	35.78	18.318168300422	1.4411	3.6511	5.46	9.1111	T	T	7.33	169.33	73	351.9049178358	6.4462535106624	0.24683369282634	92	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.35	32.26	35.805	21.33813543428	1.4411	4.0111	5.93	9.9411	T	T	7.35	175.35	73	353.78465768368	7.5491049402249	0.2474354475986	92	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	37.93	34.17	36.05	23.814690391252	1.4843	4.3643	5.92	10.2843	T	T	5.93	170.93	73	355.31543325785	8.4617270342693	0.20671569969256	92	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.28	35.13	37.205	25.161557294459	3.6499	7.0599	4.97	12.0299	T	T	7.28	162.28	73	356.14390730302	8.9611353286775	0.24533273441207	92	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	40.52	35.39	37.955	22.235159586866	3.6318	6.7418	5.51	12.2518	T	T	8.52	170.52	73	354.34022701678	7.8788114957646	0.2839566607675	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.83	35.71	37.77	21.436578492949	3.1418	5.9518	5.29	11.2418	T	T	7.83	164.83	73	353.8456899638	7.5852409073006	0.26210936520397	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	44.73	34.87	39.8	21.812060250476	2.6478	5.5178	5.38	10.8978	T	T	12.73	177.73	73	354.07833937535	7.7231780718435	0.43245617334416	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	44.76	34.88	39.82	22.859627545103	2.6478	5.6278	5.71	11.3378	T	T	12.76	179.76	73	354.72624279298	8.1089097907214	0.43358001586983	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	45.19	35.5	40.345	22.224025774058	2.2327	4.9127	5.56	10.4727	T	T	13.19	178.19	73	354.33333907713	7.8747132602581	0.44974308161079	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.98	34.31	38.645	24.152426156994	1.3719	3.9819	6.35	10.3319	T	T	10.98	165.98	73	355.52344491421	8.5867537503707	0.36813072366286	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-15 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.99	34.32	38.655	22.490418607426	1.3719	3.9319	5.82	9.7519	T	T	10.99	184.99	73	354.49808974139	7.9728104338166	0.36848981531252	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.32	33.91	38.115	22.183186073206	1.5232	3.8132	5.89	9.7032	T	T	10.32	181.32	73	354.30807190513	7.8596818863102	0.34469880144822	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-15 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	43.61	35.38	39.495	22.120220664547	0.9099	3.5499	5.95	9.4999	T	T	11.61	177.61	73	354.26911061177	7.836510901365	0.39096613987799	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	43.62	35.4	39.51	22.655178312155	0.9099	3.5499	6.16	9.7099	T	T	11.62	175.62	73	354.59992961067	8.0335246348074	0.3913318909098	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.97	35.63	39.3	22.8262268952	0.8069	3.5769	6.08	9.6569	T	T	10.97	176.97	73	354.70561162755	8.0965907720111	0.36777174714491	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	21	101	44.81	36.19	40.5	23.754686068835	0.1988	2.5688	6.23	8.7988	T	T	12.81	154.81	73	355.27845788891	8.4395282341708	0.43545427614915	92	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	50.6	39.71	45.155	0	0.4229	2.5229	5.78	8.3029	T	T	18.6	245.6	73	340.18877064411	0	0.65135458829698	92	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2019-10-14 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	50.02	39.09	44.555	1.1079162517611	0.1048	2.4748	5.89	8.3648	T	T	18.02	243.02	73	340.91297821381	0.37770302899936	0.63071050431271	92	3	5	2	5	4	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	42.29	37.4	39.845	0	0.0956	1.3856	6.02	7.4056	T	T	10.29	233.29	73	340.18877064411	0	0.34364693640214	92	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-10-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	21	101	39.46	37.39	38.425	0	0.0339	1.3239	6.15	7.4739	T	T	7.46	232.46	73	340.18877064411	0	0.25075904430402	92	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2019-10-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	21	101	36.34	35.02	35.68	0	0.0024	1.3024	6.13	7.4324	T	T	4.34	225.34	73	340.18877064411	0	0.1661751448504	92	1	5	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H