Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 22, 2019

[ Monday, October 21, 2019 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 23, 2019 ]

DAY 22 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/23/2019 12:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.60°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.60°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.60°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.106 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 172 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.08 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.84 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.92 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 14 in SWE DAY: 72 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.57 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 4.95 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 102 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 35.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	22	102	33.6	33.6	33.6	23.991253333333	0.0018	2.0818	6.84	8.9218	T	T	1.6	171.6	71	353.57436418695	8.4826921433814	0.1062690407024	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-22 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	44.55	33.82	39.185	23.556926666667	0.0176	2.0976	6.84	8.9376	T	T	12.55	182.55	71	353.30467792373	8.3227723888395	0.4219657308375	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-22 09:12:23	FORECAST	2020	22	102	44.87	33.84	39.355	23.506688	0.0103	2.0903	6.84	8.9303	T	T	12.87	182.87	71	353.27346404938	8.3042890980879	0.4339988203195	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	44.53	33.59	39.06	0	0.0191	2.0991	6.84	8.9391	T	T	12.53	182.53	71	338.22270370998	0	0.42121595445499	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	42.77	33.53	38.15	0	0.2841	2.3641	6.84	9.2041	T	T	10.77	180.77	71	338.22270370998	0	0.35664506011909	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-22 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	22	102	43.63	33.71	38.67	28.951493333333	0.7548	1.2748	6.84	8.1148	T	T	11.63	180.63	72	357.54838854242	10.35155978723	0.38781111561159	90	2	5	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	45.46	33.82	39.64	29.044372	0.8752	2.0352	6.84	8.8752	T	T	13.46	184.46	72	357.60508363913	10.386415078306	0.45633779848143	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	44.14	34.04	39.09	29.020537333333	1.1858	2.3458	6.84	9.1858	T	T	12.14	183.14	72	357.59053573172	10.377469492249	0.40665562848012	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	22	102	46.24	34.73	40.485	28.532910666667	0.9568	2.1168	6.84	8.9568	T	T	14.24	185.24	72	357.29271082134	10.194600999717	0.48607214915845	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:41	FORECAST	2020	22	102	42.69	35.12	38.905	28.6429	0.9299	2.1999	6.84	9.0399	T	T	10.69	179.69	72	357.35992059035	10.235824469477	0.35379034059797	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	42.72	35.37	39.045	0	1.114	2.484	6.84	9.324	T	T	10.72	179.72	72	339.20760493838	0	0.35485990799997	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	22	102	45.03	35.63	40.33	0	1.0362	2.7262	6.84	9.5662	T	T	13.03	182.03	72	339.20760493838	0	0.44003910775622	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	22	102	41.81	35.76	38.785	0	1.4512	2.9912	6.84	9.8312	T	T	9.81	177.81	72	339.20760493838	0	0.32295994169759	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	22	102	44.45	35.87	40.16	0	1.3758	3.4658	6.84	10.3058	T	T	12.45	184.45	72	339.20760493838	0	0.41821973084328	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	44.26	35.82	40.04	0	1.263	3.123	6.84	9.963	T	T	12.26	185.26	72	339.20760493838	0	0.4111229953002	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	44.56	34.71	39.635	0	1.1141	2.9841	6.84	9.8241	T	T	12.56	184.56	72	339.20760493838	0	0.42234072528408	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	43.9	35.1	39.5	0	1.0765	3.2465	6.84	10.0865	T	T	11.9	182.9	72	339.20760493838	0	0.39775778691253	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	43.91	35.7	39.805	0	1.1753	3.2953	6.84	10.1353	T	T	11.91	183.91	72	339.20760493838	0	0.39812750528233	90	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 00:01:14	FORECAST	2020	22	102	43.22	34.41	38.815	2.1320204862402	1.1935	3.7535	4.99	8.7435	T	T	11.22	178.22	72	340.604723807	0.7261762488667	0.37284860666775	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	43.47	33.92	38.695	0.50076137449507	1.1123	3.6923	5.58	9.2723	T	T	11.47	175.47	72	339.53643539343	0.17002673207877	0.38195087735564	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	39.9	32.94	36.42	0.4504601264443	0.6893	2.9193	5.58	8.4993	T	T	7.9	175.9	72	339.50342341982	0.15293275504196	0.26027960598217	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	40.16	34.08	37.12	3.1733964926784	0.8207	4.0407	5.58	9.6207	T	T	8.16	176.16	72	341.28439497637	1.0830307020239	0.26843102575334	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	42.04	33.62	37.83	4.1491299752053	0.7299	3.7399	5.94	9.6799	T	T	10.04	179.04	72	341.91959415658	1.4186688372251	0.33091187364191	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	43.07	33.08	38.075	5.0335487895856	0.7051	3.6851	6.32	10.0051	T	T	11.07	184.07	72	342.49398922074	1.7239602048824	0.36742074795504	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	22	102	40.11	33.82	36.965	8.0462183798818	1.2486	3.7786	5.46	9.2386	T	T	8.11	172.11	72	344.44094345891	2.7714470500429	0.26685354407717	90	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	40.09	33.85	36.97	6.7124763586715	1.0116	3.5816	6.24	9.8216	T	T	8.09	176.09	72	343.58084295252	2.3062782856113	0.26622386378946	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	40.67	35.05	37.86	7.8215645045564	0.6932	3.8232	6.4	10.2232	T	T	8.67	180.67	72	344.2962731663	2.6929355092486	0.28478400420277	90	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	39.93	34.59	37.26	9.104217249229	0.8093	3.7293	6.62	10.3493	T	T	7.93	184.93	72	345.12115394284	3.1420579628002	0.26121361229366	90	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	39.96	34.63	37.295	8.2829197950515	0.8093	2.5993	6.75	9.3493	T	T	7.96	184.96	72	344.59328271762	2.8542385226635	0.26214933551671	90	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	39.78	34.42	37.1	9.3219473492739	0.8093	2.5993	6.87	9.4693	T	T	7.78	184.78	72	345.26091070526	3.2185040313568	0.25656083996266	90	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	22	102	38.68	29.93	34.305	12.784503777121	0.9149	3.0849	6.11	9.1949	T	T	6.68	173.68	72	347.47310229183	4.4422711886979	0.2238014850421	90	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2019-10-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	38.69	29.95	34.32	11.27262231855	0.9149	2.9449	6.96	9.9049	T	T	6.69	184.69	72	346.50956931667	3.9060715046703	0.22408819694159	90	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2019-10-17 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	38.79	30.35	34.57	17.024151319043	0.9628	2.8528	7.29	10.1428	T	T	6.79	179.79	72	350.15540722034	5.9610986377001	0.22696674538206	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	42.14	32.18	37.16	18.112995351963	0.3024	2.0324	7.09	9.1224	T	T	10.14	175.14	72	350.83963886954	6.3547567481283	0.33439342975533	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	42.15	32.2	37.175	21.135481477622	0.3024	2.1424	7.81	9.9524	T	T	10.15	181.15	72	352.72908757707	7.4550990971038	0.33474237580685	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	38.24	32.69	35.465	23.630052745207	1.1994	3.0594	8.13	11.1894	T	T	6.24	173.24	72	354.277631084	8.3715991089617	0.211393840548	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-17 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	22	102	38.69	31.67	35.18	28.780380851406	1.3467	5.8067	7.28	13.0867	T	T	6.69	164.69	72	357.44390284962	10.287371657025	0.22408819694159	90	1	5	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2019-10-16 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	40.25	32.83	36.54	24.167678876881	1.4566	5.8866	7.53	13.4166	T	T	8.25	175.25	72	354.61008752555	8.5701027218201	0.27128224420012	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	39.81	33.27	36.54	21.274810774162	0.7295	4.6095	7.07	11.6795	T	T	7.81	168.81	72	352.81583733248	7.5060901773762	0.25748793366452	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	34.77	27.75	31.26	25.579842867687	0.7169	4.1469	7.18	11.3269	T	T	2.77	176.77	72	355.48118007663	9.0931527287802	0.12832463004474	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-16 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	34.79	27.77	31.28	26.752597608896	0.7169	4.1469	7.62	11.7669	T	T	2.79	178.79	72	356.20222208844	9.5293347149266	0.12872733736443	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	35.71	28.84	32.275	25.699067613503	0.8236	3.7836	7.22	11.0036	T	T	3.71	177.71	72	355.55458086041	9.1374212138225	0.14820157442322	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	22	102	36.5	29.57	33.035	26.54269102047	0.7618	3.1518	7.65	10.8018	T	T	4.5	166.5	72	356.0733234813	9.4511442057963	0.16641833089613	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-15 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	36.52	29.82	33.17	24.965002598697	0.7594	3.1494	7.07	10.2194	T	T	4.52	185.52	72	355.10230022116	8.8651298478247	0.16689748551152	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	36.25	30.77	33.51	23.908372239716	0.5398	3.0698	6.88	9.9498	T	T	4.25	181.25	72	354.44979455354	8.4743176284768	0.16050375561892	90	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-15 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	22	102	46.73	36.13	41.43	21.544580664547	1.04	2.97	7.28	10.25	T	T	14.73	188.73	72	352.98371528198	7.604886127164	0.50480168405812	90	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	46.73	38.56	42.645	22.188106312155	0.9416	2.8716	7.49	10.3616	T	T	14.73	186.73	72	353.38371745338	7.8409154918401	0.50480168405812	90	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	22	102	46.39	44.34	45.365	22.532776228533	0.5312	2.4412	7.46	9.9012	T	T	14.39	187.39	72	353.59768839095	7.9675375874399	0.49180432827244	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L