Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 9, 2019

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DAY 9 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/10/2019 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.95°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.97°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.46°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.078 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.63 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.21 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.84 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 6 in SWE DAY: 85 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.68 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 2.11 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 89 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 75.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-10 04:00:13	OBSERVATION	2020	9	89	33.94994	22.96994	28.45994	0	0.0099999999999909	1.63	3.21	4.84	T	F	1.94994	188.94994	85	351.67649212947	0	0.078365174591124	92	1	4	1	5	5	2	75	WET	L
2019-10-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	24.25	24.25	24.25	0	0	1.62	3.21	4.83	T	F	-7.75	179.25	84	350.7390628119	0	0.011578331859203	92	1	4	1	5	5	2	75	WET	L
2019-10-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	46.89	26.84	36.865	0	0.005	1.625	3.21	4.835	T	F	14.89	201.89	84	350.7390628119	0	0.38960790119625	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	45.22	22.74	33.98	0	0.0081	1.6281	3.21	4.8381	T	F	13.22	200.22	84	350.7390628119	0	0.33475215406374	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	45.83	22.58	34.205	0	0.0105	1.6305	3.21	4.8405	T	F	13.83	200.83	84	350.7390628119	0	0.35445490592337	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.88	24.14	34.51	0	0.0067	1.0467	3.21	4.2567	T	F	12.88	184.88	85	351.67649212947	0	0.32396032902755	92	2	4	1	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2019-10-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.83	26.92	35.875	0	0.0138	1.4038	3.21	4.6138	T	F	12.83	200.83	85	351.67649212947	0	0.32238541816025	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.27	29.02	36.645	0	0.0093	1.3993	3.21	4.6093	T	F	12.27	200.27	85	351.67649212947	0	0.30496901675572	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	43.93	28	35.965	0	0.009	1.399	3.21	4.609	T	F	11.93	199.93	85	351.67649212947	0	0.29460291412044	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-08 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	43.96	29.41	36.685	0.052093683850952	0.0037	1.4837	3.21	4.6937	T	F	11.96	198.96	85	351.70906976564	0.018321821087884	0.29551101004854	92	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	WET	M
2019-10-08 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.12	29.51	36.815	0	0.0037	1.4937	3.21	4.7037	T	F	12.12	200.12	85	351.67649212947	0	0.30037576051988	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-08 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	9	89	43.95	28.59	36.27	0.20243995600203	0.0102	0.6602	3.21	3.8702	T	F	11.95	198.95	85	351.80306709371	0.071218997423832	0.29520816854155	92	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	DRY	M
2019-10-07 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	43.77	27.55	35.66	0.3563380896491	0.0121	1.5921	3.21	4.8021	T	F	11.77	220.77	85	351.89924789491	0.12539510574383	0.28978160043404	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.06	28.17	36.115	0	0.012	1.492	3.21	4.702	T	F	12.06	221.06	85	351.67649212947	0	0.298547243141	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.45	28.9	36.675	0.46020180127867	0.0069	1.5469	3.21	4.7569	T	F	12.45	221.45	85	351.96413773511	0.16197453017119	0.31052167126726	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-07 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.5	28.85	36.675	0.37801851521631	0.0086	1.5286	3.21	4.7386	T	F	12.5	216.5	85	351.91279436045	0.13302955200976	0.31207183560306	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.52	28.56	36.54	0.054241974460789	0.0114	1.6414	3.21	4.8514	T	F	12.52	221.52	85	351.71041314172	0.019077467247227	0.31269283561643	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.4	29.78	37.09	0.13520172698454	0.0074	1.5274	3.21	4.7374	T	F	12.4	202.4	85	351.76103381477	0.047558699257623	0.30897486165585	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	43.6	29.81	36.705	0	0.0125	1.6025	3.21	4.8125	T	F	11.6	222.6	85	351.67649212947	0	0.28469984536002	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.33	29.4	36.865	0.09834658602312	0.0095	1.6395	3.21	4.8495	T	F	12.33	223.33	85	351.73799116106	0.034592230605321	0.3068150066864	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	38.42	30.08	34.25	0	0.0125	1.6225	3.21	4.8325	T	F	6.42	213.42	85	351.67649212947	0	0.1530424716876	92	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2019-10-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	38.39	29.58	33.985	0	0.0132	1.5632	3.22	4.7832	T	F	6.39	217.39	85	351.67649212947	0	0.15242100626732	92	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2019-10-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	43.86	26.36	35.11	0	0.0122	1.5222	3.22	4.7422	T	F	11.86	217.86	85	351.67649212947	0	0.29248904112281	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.12	28.68	36.4	0.15184948543085	0.0036	1.6136	3.15	4.7636	T	F	12.12	219.12	85	351.77144165633	0.053416312404782	0.30037576051988	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.13	27.98	36.055	0	0.0026	1.5026	3.19	4.6926	T	F	12.13	237.13	85	351.67649212947	0	0.30068100426825	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-05 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.66	30.26	37.46	0.13073979417716	0.0015	1.5415	3.19	4.7315	T	F	12.66	238.66	85	351.75824422992	0.045988800450737	0.31705464150433	92	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-05 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	43.24	30.27	36.755	0	0.001	1.611	3.19	4.801	T	F	11.24	239.24	85	351.67649212947	0	0.27408096644511	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.72	31.68	39.7	0	0.0009	1.6409	3.2	4.8409	T	F	15.72	242.72	85	351.67649212947	0	0.41779526571761	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.95	31.74	39.845	0	0.004	1.554	3.22	4.774	T	F	15.95	242.95	85	351.67649212947	0	0.4256882689991	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-05 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.53	31.06	39.295	0	0.0246	2.1646	2.94	5.1046	T	F	15.53	242.53	85	351.67649212947	0	0.41129969435861	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.55	31.07	39.31	0	0.0246	2.2846	3.07	5.3546	T	F	15.55	261.55	85	351.67649212947	0	0.41198232779205	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.42	31.02	39.22	0	0.0174	2.0774	3.08	5.1574	T	F	15.42	260.42	85	351.67649212947	0	0.40755006133517	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-10-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.88	31.97	39.925	0	0.0157	1.3957	3.09	4.4857	T	F	15.88	257.88	85	351.67649212947	0	0.42328274404593	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2019-10-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.61	32.41	40.01	0	0.0167	1.5667	3.23	4.7967	T	F	15.61	252.61	85	351.67649212947	0	0.41403181847791	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.89	33.04	40.465	0	0.0202	1.5102	3.27	4.7802	T	F	15.89	258.89	85	351.67649212947	0	0.42362621764804	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	46.96	33.66	40.31	0	0.0356	1.3456	3.01	4.3556	T	F	14.96	250.96	85	351.67649212947	0	0.39196507929717	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2019-10-03 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	46.97	33.68	40.325	0	0.0356	1.4156	3.11	4.5256	T	F	14.97	271.97	85	351.67649212947	0	0.39230214509162	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2019-10-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	47.35	34.16	40.755	0	0.0497	1.8197	3.12	4.9397	T	F	15.35	274.35	85	351.67649212947	0	0.40516830964569	92	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-10-03 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	50.14	33.61	41.875	0	0.0305	1.6405	3.45	5.0905	T	F	18.14	281.14	85	351.67649212947	0	0.50188888631323	92	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2019-10-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	49.17	33.73	41.45	0	0.0128	1.4628	3.24	4.7028	T	F	17.17	264.17	85	351.67649212947	0	0.46797971109258	92	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2019-10-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	51.85	32.97	42.41	0	0.0026	1.0626	3.19	4.2526	T	F	19.85	268.85	85	351.67649212947	0	0.56148226714994	92	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2019-10-03 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	52.69	35.95	44.32	0	0.0184	0.7084	3.27	3.9784	T	F	20.69	268.69	85	351.67649212947	0	0.59033606070794	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-10-02 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	52.72	35.96	44.34	0	0.0184	0.7084	3.3	4.0084	T	F	20.72	290.72	85	351.67649212947	0	0.59135852770206	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-10-02 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	51.81	35.27	43.54	0	0.0241	0.7841	3.39	4.1741	T	F	19.81	289.81	85	351.67649212947	0	0.56009881163289	92	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2019-10-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	9	89	50.95	43.44	47.195	0	0.0051	0.3151	3.31	3.6251	T	F	18.95	301.95	85	351.67649212947	0	0.53020466731683	92	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-10-02 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.56	43.52	44.04	0	0.0051	0.3151	3.31	3.6251	T	F	12.56	292.56	85	351.67649212947	0	0.31393642928846	92	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-10-02 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	9	89	44.58	43.71	44.145	0	0.0035	0.1735	3.29	3.4635	F	F	12.58	293.58	85	351.67649212947	0	0.31455902003206	92	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M