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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 4, 2024

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DAY 217 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2024 08:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.462
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 130

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 124
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6944.47431.71238.093124.1981611657700.13.583.68FF12.474130.474124443.0315010974655.0236977748170.4624586163537162112124DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2024217-6944.97832.43238.705121.1758608133200.073.173.24FF12.978137.978124441.8380559705253.5401067723120.48107233059992162111122DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6944.83431.92838.381115.613280598970.102362260.232362262.963.19236226FF12.834139.834124439.6174132445150.8256113536310.47574812724636162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2024217-6949.83832.14440.991114.910063075270.0185039470.1785039472.873.048503947FF17.838142.838124439.3344405954550.4839482799620.65675550966034163112125DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024217-6947.330.81239.056115.132760770770.0062992160.1662992162.822.986299216FF15.3134.3124439.4241081817850.59211072420.56673033524219163112125DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6944.97828.68836.833116.341895430.0271653690.3571653692.763.117165369FF12.978128.978124439.9100730330451.1799717154150.48107233059992162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024217-6938.64225.41232.027118.903937335370.0795276020.4695276023.023.489527602FF6.642123.642124440.9348680517352.4288919198010.26253097960055162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024217-6939.09225.41232.252119.614964802220.1051181670.5051181673.073.575118167TF7.092123.092124441.2180927826252.7762866382940.27632641672812162113126DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6941.50426.20433.854124.992802006880.0964567450.5764567453.263.836456745TF9.504138.504124443.3437705299955.4147801308390.35572632728871162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024217-6941.05427.21234.133119.189124975680.19685050.72685052.923.6468505TF9.054136.054124441.0485287497952.56818821350.34028924618261162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024217-6938.08424.15231.118121.934368738990.2051182210.8651182212.993.855118221TF6.084126.084124442.1384370414653.9118712158950.24592738284645161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2024217-6943.3429.85836.599116.729973853390.0921260340.2821260342.943.222126034FF11.34142.34124440.065730007151.36886115750.42093786162566162112124DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6936.6824.15230.416122.448914127480.2492127330.4492127333.213.659212733TF4.68133.68124442.3418759113454.1642823784550.20676122043054161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2024217-6936.69824.13430.416122.587066306880.2409450120.4509450123.093.540945012TF4.698129.698124442.3964526975254.2320832807580.20723881946661161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024217-6930.75825.89828.328121.998315471350.1779528520.4579528522.743.197952852FF-1.242121.758124442.163734512153.9432307729960.085661417431502161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:04FORECAST2024217-6931.04623.5427.293122.15894653230.0570866450.3870866452.753.137086645FF-0.954127.046124442.2272623985954.0220165024740.089930977163616161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:04FORECAST2024217-6930.0223.59426.807122.288203628060.0842520140.4342520142.713.144252014FF-1.98121.02124442.2783633966954.0854265633380.075413194165346161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:04FORECAST2024217-6925.89819.23822.568120.8350355006500.142.852.99FF-6.102124.898124441.7028952282853.3731850256510.034340012564266161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024217-6928.6721.41625.043122.344642290420.0161417410.1961417413.093.286141741FF-3.33124.67124442.3006708133154.1131173554660.059112914085541161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:05FORECAST2024217-6927.89626.65427.275122.480120285110.0181102460.1981102463.053.248110246FF-4.104114.896124442.3542055258954.1795963014370.051093972430405161112123DRYL