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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 3, 2024

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DAY 216 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2024 08:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.296
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 116

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 126 in
SWE DAY: 123
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2024216-7039.32627.42833.377125.817542366860.1224410110.4324410113.584.012441011TF7.326116.326123443.0800026900355.7472370103610.29600797645619162112124WETL
2024-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024216-7039.70428.45434.079125.174986161720.1291339280.4491339283.473.919133928TF7.704117.704123442.8271157818555.4308780900280.31045144149408162112124DRYL
2024-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024216-7041.5428.79635.168126.679147883920.0562992430.3062992433.593.896299243TF9.54119.54123443.4184523702556.1718717022680.38447203085771162112124DRYL
2024-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024216-7042.60228.11235.357125.0813011657700.193.493.68TF10.602117.602123442.7902102645855.384775643360.42951801969533162112124DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2024216-7044.2429.06636.653122.1141048133200.073.173.24FF12.24125.24123441.6167812864253.9276379173310.50061931681078163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024216-7044.3330.3837.355116.481168598970.0027559070.1327559072.963.092755907FF12.33127.33123439.3646615841251.1777092224090.50454625182938163112125DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2024216-7045.5929.82237.706116.054741120.0062992160.1562992162.873.026299216FF13.59124.59123439.1928548420550.970413070450.55930469294971163112125DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024216-7042.81828.92235.87116.038155470770.0051181130.1551181132.822.975118113FF10.818118.818123439.1861687581750.9623529309750.43881405569258162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024216-7040.44226.0633.251117.0356845650.1358268450.3258268452.763.085826845FF8.442116.442123439.5877967634451.4474587206290.33949186577322162112124DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024216-7036.06824.47630.272118.920926668140.1476378750.3876378753.023.407637875FF4.068117.068123440.3440649682452.3661242588380.18610470438504161112123DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024216-7036.6824.63830.659119.585617162630.1645670180.4045670183.073.474567018FF4.68115.68123440.6098444137652.6906001721510.20457891516706161112123DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2024216-7036.87824.9830.929125.263357525070.1287402270.4887402273.253.738740227TF4.878128.878123442.8619200411455.4743710243510.21078142255939161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024216-7037.50824.49431.001119.275775432190.0665354690.5765354692.873.446535469FF5.508126.508123440.4860086537852.5393102492070.23123449740827161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024216-7036.17623.7229.948121.320101843110.1389764530.7089764532.943.648976453TF4.176120.176123441.3012763200453.5387157866440.18928766621726161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2024216-7040.26224.832.531117.2663068902600.362.773.13FF8.262131.262123439.680505841451.5597091316630.33231193660874162112124DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024216-7037.77824.2631.019120.917564067930.0519685320.4619685322.953.411968532FF5.778128.778123441.1410807076853.3417048894650.24032739617913161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2024216-7037.90424.85431.379120.880999043560.0566929440.4766929442.823.296692944FF5.904124.904123441.1265210215753.3238145656980.244636387697161112123DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024216-7041.48628.0434.763120.325022602880.2586615570.3686615572.653.018661557FF9.486123.486123440.9049722284653.0519007491110.38221726457066162112124DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:04FORECAST2024216-7042.63827.33834.988121.596622753720.1661418220.4261418222.653.076141822FF10.638127.638123441.4112268699753.6741144329650.43106479197629162112124DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024216-7043.93425.8834.907121.476779815070.2196851580.3696851582.693.059685158FF11.934122.934123441.3635842700353.6154269447610.48726956555935162112124DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:04FORECAST2024216-7040.74823.932.324120.835035500650.0728346850.2328346852.762.992834685FF8.748130.748123441.1082170572253.3013270677390.35183121169024162112124DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024216-7042.83625.30434.07122.199474203030.1039370640.4939370642.783.273937064FF10.836127.836123441.6506657921853.9694791412210.4395903243202162113126DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:05FORECAST2024216-7042.4423.10832.774122.301196441660.1039370640.5139370642.723.233937064FF10.44119.44123441.6910314186754.0193416000550.42257125780211162113126DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024216-7027.39224.65626.024130.188195530530.1027559610.6827559612.443.122755961FF-4.60892.392123444.7892255602257.9063066671070.032634873653331161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2024216-7029.78626.11427.95129.754010815010.0062992160.4762992162.482.956299216FF-2.214108.786123444.6202773874357.6912642807020.056990478174514161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024216-7029.78626.11427.95130.003287588480.0062992160.4762992162.492.966299216FF-2.214105.786123444.7172977190657.8147107509440.056990478174514161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:04FORECAST2024216-7030.09228.63429.363127.8100284581200.412.172.58FF-1.908102.092123443.8615541351856.7299578654840.060934189083913161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:03FORECAST2024216-7031.42429.51630.47126.961742325330.0736220870.3136220872.252.563622087FF-0.576104.424123443.5292978753256.311252430580.080620181516758161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:05FORECAST2024216-7031.44230.72231.082123.5649255171700.232.082.31FF-0.558100.442123442.1916383180954.6393768530890.080915647380048161112123DRYL