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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 1, 2024

[ Tuesday, April 30, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 2, 2024 ]

DAY 214 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/28/2024 12:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.82°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.203
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 121

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.72 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 121
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -72

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2024214-7236.521.14628.823127.343451377490.0956693431.7156693431.993.705669343TF4.5120.5121442.502348452256.3497762945490.20297181190722161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2024214-7234.66420.85827.761125.066379726810.1070866721.7370866721.963.697086672TF2.664121.664121441.600961229655.2294335048640.15696554855959161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024214-7235.63620.73228.184124.179406136690.0811024061.6111024061.953.561102406TF3.636122.636121441.2484361508954.793968759960.1803986432569161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024214-7235.7820.96628.373126.27721645680.1185040011.7785040011.943.718504001TF3.78121.78121442.0809244289955.824748585540.1840476143985161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024214-7235.0621.21828.139125.646465952630.0881890241.6081890241.983.588189024TF3.06118.06121441.8310856286655.5145144572570.16625993355657161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:04FORECAST2024214-7235.65420.9328.292123.150262096280.0015748041.2015748041.983.181574804TF3.654120.654121440.8384092345754.2893656393420.1808522720562161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024214-7239.05622.130.578117.542854680860.0023622060.9923622061.982.972362206FF7.056125.056121438.5854035950251.5525803599140.27887731803349162114128DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2024214-7237.99421.32629.66116.741262721280.0011811030.8611811032.022.881181103FF5.994121.994121438.2607016927951.163107716730.24575320065019161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024214-7237.02220.15628.589116.486597291870.0031496080.8631496081.972.833149608FF5.022120.022121438.1574055772951.0394652539310.2173901597325161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024214-7236.98620.37228.679116.661680017350.0019685050.8319685051.942.771968505FF4.986122.986121438.2284289324851.1244647506290.21637722737635161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:03FORECAST2024214-7237.70621.68629.696117.453770389880.0019685051.1319685051.93.031968505FF5.706127.706121438.5493507494951.5092747475640.23714830798488161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024214-7237.36421.36229.363118.120916822570.0019685051.1619685051.923.081968505FF5.364126.364121438.8191500421551.833720322280.22714835568489161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024214-7239.63223.64831.64123.32677227310.0051181130.9851181132.283.265118113TF7.632134.632121440.9088097935154.3758603786080.29770772786518162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024214-7241.25226.00633.629115.772067260770.0547244390.6147244392.322.934724439FF9.252134.252121437.8672244935650.6927937653560.35352087513499162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024214-7240.3728.11234.241116.62379787510.0547244390.6247244392.383.004724439FF8.37130.37121438.2130644923451.1060718595820.32264543629463162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024214-7239.9230.21835.069116.941965518960.1700788320.5200788322.432.950078832FF7.92134.92121438.3420626893551.2605823805270.3073352536066162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024214-7240.2826.58233.431120.247612301060.259842660.789842662.433.21984266FF8.28137.28121439.6761572364852.8700080933930.31955815743038162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2024214-7239.8326.2433.035120.26393549870.2736221950.7736221952.333.103622195FF7.83132.83121439.6827172068952.8779739420630.30431194558715162113126DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024214-7237.32821.6529.489117.815144153470.0862205190.6262205192.122.746220519FF5.328126.328121438.6955499072851.6849794518130.22610971209962161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024214-7237.2220.87629.048120.453953305390.1011811570.5911811572.172.761181157FF5.22129.22121439.7590615984652.9707174714020.22300991072536161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024214-7236.15817.99627.077120.362009142380.0185039470.6185039472.12.718503947FF4.158124.158121439.7221253396252.9258384702330.19384226169314161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2024214-7237.97620.49829.237119.788053281910.0897638280.6897638282.172.859763828FF5.976132.976121439.4913578884552.6458141956830.24521053619659161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024214-7235.07822.80228.94120.666213783670.3066930790.9466930792.153.096693079FF3.078131.078121439.8442989797953.0743462122230.16669066360539161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:05FORECAST2024214-7234.68218.28426.483120.795527007150.3311025410.9811025412.083.061102541FF2.682122.682121439.8962047331153.1374938791810.1573804780326161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024214-7234.55622.8228.688127.648805524450.3625986210.8225986211.992.812598621FF2.556110.556121442.6228280702156.5002753010140.1544910575563161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:03FORECAST2024214-7236.17626.04231.109127.236562581930.0807087050.5407087052.032.570708705FF4.176120.176121442.460152644256.2971089019230.194316446953161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024214-7237.09427.24832.171127.457559567870.0807087050.5407087052.042.580708705FF5.094117.094121442.5473815736156.4060092485240.21942420180941161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024214-7236.01423.70229.858125.432631051080.0610236550.4410236551.82.241023655FF4.014115.014121441.746295232655.409400068090.19007416948146161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:03FORECAST2024214-7236.17623.75629.966125.175993154160.015748040.565748041.712.27574804FF4.176117.176121441.6444716545455.2832853604030.194316446953161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024214-7236.15823.77429.966123.809449517170.011811030.491811031.612.10181103FF4.158113.158121441.101163087454.6124921832340.19384226169314161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:04FORECAST2024214-7235.81623.66629.741126.6902123770600.6522.65FF3.816111.816121442.2442944376256.0280235848460.18496697153932161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:04FORECAST2024214-7239.93825.23232.585126.588135054900.521.872.39FF7.938117.938121442.2039313545455.9777709841150.30794149708615162113126DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:03FORECAST2024214-7236.37423.8130.092128.159216603900.541.82.34FF4.374110.374121442.8240058140856.7519776785330.19957887311291161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:04FORECAST2024214-7236.08623.0929.588126.518277231950.0429134090.7429134091.542.282913409FF4.086115.086121442.1763023688655.9433840085030.191952568803161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:04FORECAST2024214-7236.82423.88230.353127.719627923520.216535550.706535551.742.44653555FF4.824115.824121442.6507581966456.535190136940.21185290582193161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024214-7228.92221.32625.124127.54644122360.216535550.706535551.732.43653555FF-3.078109.922121442.5824499297556.4498164365620.059620458008318161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:04FORECAST2024214-7231.31624.90828.112129.5643359645400.392.633.02FF-0.684112.316121443.3764860415757.4457799962680.092072455275352161112123DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:04FORECAST2024214-7230.7428.72429.732129.906303081420.1503937821.0003937821.872.870393782FF-1.26113.74121443.5106463473657.6148284442360.083273648399222161114126DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:04FORECAST2024214-7229.40827.17628.292127.914689770060.1492126791.0192126791.912.929212679FF-2.592111.408121442.7276584822756.6313710873860.065358366467469161114126DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:04FORECAST2024214-7234.12431.08232.603119.4839807421300.111.261.37FF2.124136.124121439.3689646256252.4975529080180.14485151815975161112123DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:03FORECAST2024214-7229.17425.91627.545119.7709048624300.521.171.69FF-2.826118.174121439.4844579352552.6374511998780.062544522507955161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:05FORECAST2024214-7229.31827.5928.454119.6069058950100.521.091.61FF-2.682118.318121439.4184550264952.5574817988860.064264753739555161113124.5DRYL