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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 7, 2024

[ Saturday, April 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, April 8, 2024 ]

DAY 190 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/08/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.194
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 74

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 141 in
SWE DAY: 97
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -96

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024190-9632.4524.3100428.38002140.614876250.0600000000000590.790000000000063.454.2400000000001TF0.4574.4597433.30664672733 60.9293605078660.1941850122946316 1113124.5WETL
2024-04-08 00:00:01FORECAST2024190-9531.9121.4726.69138.189994098770.0562992430.7862992433.454.236299243TF-0.0973.9198432.9178795694359.8249192229510.1794616016338161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 12:00:01FORECAST2024190-9530.63220.67825.655138.121417831150.0385826980.7685826983.454.218582698TF-1.36872.63298432.8891398670859.7912617621490.1474947972136161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 08:00:01FORECAST2024190-9530.50621.4725.98813800.733.454.18TF-1.49472.50698432.8382424567559.7316774590320.14456318895741161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9530.1120.2125.16138.035557337580.051181130.781181133.454.23118113TF-1.8972.1198432.8531494414359.7491257284740.13560578159724161113124.5WETL
2024-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024190-9631.71221.32626.519136.408879060260.0531496350.5931496353.454.043149635TF-0.28873.71297431.5388314291358.8657282662230.17424324192538161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 20:00:01FORECAST2024190-9630.79421.90226.348134.310049574130.0767716950.5367716953.453.986771695TF-1.20672.79497430.6495873792757.8405674299860.1513219887286161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 16:00:01FORECAST2024190-9631.20821.52426.366134.412568448030.1007874560.5607874563.454.010787456TF-0.79273.20897430.6931333722457.8905702694940.16139935660977161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 12:00:02FORECAST2024190-9631.76623.30627.536135.181104220460.0744094890.5344094893.453.984409489TF-0.23473.76697431.0192163228958.2656536027660.17565679923352161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024190-9630.41622.60426.51135.595900900360.086614220.636614223.454.08661422TF-1.58471.41697431.1949465846958.4682672458350.14249331145705161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 04:00:03FORECAST2024190-9629.67822.26225.97135.282078909140.1039370640.6339370643.454.083937064TF-2.32269.67897431.0620117020158.3149650818030.12627507189278161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024190-9629.62421.77625.7130.766830898510.1964567990.6664567993.454.116456799TF-2.37669.62497429.137577555256.1169610363590.12514088602139161113124.5WETL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024190-9629.78621.86625.826130.419789094720.1846457690.6546457693.454.104645769TF-2.21470.78697428.9887502268655.9486223285960.1285648214868161113124.5WETL
2024-04-05 16:00:02FORECAST2024190-9629.28221.79425.538130.411978123120.2055119220.6455119223.454.095511922TF-2.71870.28297428.9853990167455.9448344717070.11812239846837161113124.5WETL
2024-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024190-9630.72222.38826.555130.176306588310.1248032170.5548032173.454.004803217TF-1.27872.72297428.8842555045255.8305683354550.14961295690783161113124.5WETL
2024-04-05 08:00:02FORECAST2024190-9630.79422.33426.564129.478203245550.0279527710.3979527713.453.847952771TF-1.20672.79497428.5842938809955.4923243109720.1513219887286161112123DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.6521.81226.231129.889996332570.0515748310.4115748313.453.861574831TF-1.3571.6597428.7612978105855.6918034001630.14791681819006161112123DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.03820.62425.331130.363457080350.082677210.472677213.273.74267721TF-1.96268.03897428.9645801159255.9213056289330.13401880370226161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.21820.94825.583128.695153565210.0307086780.4207086783.323.740708678TF-1.78272.21897428.2471989319955.1133390304220.1380102331708161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024190-9631.17221.2926.231128.932393477580.0401575020.4901575023.323.810157502TF-0.82874.17297428.349399112355.2281132722330.16050612033877161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:02FORECAST2024190-9629.9321.90225.916129.675743529890.1622048120.5422048123.323.862204812TF-2.0772.9397428.6692271202255.5880007551970.13166227619117161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.50623.25226.879129.894379853720.1763780480.5963780483.313.906378048TF-1.49473.50697428.7631810147155.6939275020140.14456318895741161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9629.80421.77625.79129.466121843560.1775591510.6075591513.33.907559151TF-2.19673.80497428.5790980506555.4864737278290.12894922197867161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024190-9628.99420.94824.971127.79608229120.1700788320.6600788323.243.900078832TF-3.00672.99497427.8593301256154.6787461617910.11243112488986161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024190-9630.05622.42426.24127.367108441980.1976379020.6576379023.243.897637902TF-1.94471.05697427.6739539298654.4715948679960.13441435017917161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024190-9629.46221.9225.691127.416469588020.1980316030.6580316033.253.908031603TF-2.53870.46297427.695295075954.4954245579770.12178095629545161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024190-9632.0922.71227.401126.63013836520.0374015950.4074015953.233.637401595TF0.09000000000000374.0997427.3550086898754.1160238814610.18428969040417161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2024190-9630.25420.37225.313126.4890510309600.363.223.58TF-1.74667.25497427.2938809225854.0479975092350.13881812135369161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9630.9220.76825.844126.450045904700.353.213.56TF-1.0870.9297427.276977621754.0291934342860.15434383614965161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2024190-9632.05422.38827.221130.079842215210.0610236550.4410236553.333.771023655TF0.05400000000000274.05497428.8428382762155.7838087380920.18331767648357161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.5621.18225.871131.13797391300.233.353.58FF-1.4467.5697429.2965954753356.2970857383830.14581476424425161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024190-9631.51422.38826.951130.8277819773600.23.313.51FF-0.48667.51497429.1637026122356.146535317950.16912211241165161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024190-9631.3721.16426.267131.15879081930.0881890240.3581890243.383.738189024TF-0.6370.3797429.3055101348856.3071916013540.16545885000306161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024190-9631.92821.8326.879129.6948256741400.153.343.49FF-0.07199999999999973.92897428.6774293079355.5972444645290.17994080971157161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9630.79421.57826.186130.5103067444600.153.373.52FF-1.20670.79497429.0275809641455.9925211934650.1513219887286161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024190-9631.06422.42426.744130.65273681752003.43.4FF-0.93664.06497429.0886632924256.0616081965270.15784577637358161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024190-9630.45221.12825.79132.07694861633003.333.33FF-1.54863.45297429.6982347336256.753231669440.14331885130023161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024190-9631.76623.12627.446132.683241691800.13.363.46FF-0.23468.76697429.9570634828857.0480969711970.17565679923352161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:05FORECAST2024190-9632.32421.6526.987131.7247329085200.063.43.46FF0.32468.32497429.5476894109656.5820546591320.19068549991895161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:04FORECAST2024190-9631.74822.2827.014131.51896669484003.383.38FF-0.25262.74897429.4596777209956.4820930509660.17518481017979161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9630.54221.54226.042131.158990544190.0145669370.0245669373.283.304566937FF-1.45861.54297429.3055956630556.3072885621380.14539676802667161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:03FORECAST2024190-9629.80421.225.502135.5175476297900.123.343.46FF-2.19667.80497431.1617660922258.4299851725460.12894922197867161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.63222.7326.681135.283561975350.043307110.043307113.33.34330711FF-1.36871.63297431.0626401775658.315689397720.1474947972136161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2024190-9630.221.72225.961134.99203834677003.253.25FF-1.867.297430.9390563655658.1733416220210.1376074905194161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:04FORECAST2024190-9631.4619.05825.259134.2580215906800.023.183.2FF-0.5472.4697430.6274835964757.8151939902340.16774234544598161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:03FORECAST2024190-9629.87618.84224.359134.5186215499500.023.223.24FF-2.12470.87697430.7381686357357.9423046938270.13049476723147161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9630.88418.91424.899134.0257078544900.023.223.24FF-1.11671.88497430.5287508231257.7019205807760.153476418651161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:04FORECAST2024190-9631.92821.57826.753142.087274671750.0783464990.0783464993.133.208346499FF-0.07199999999999977.92897433.9210584581561.6546606190010.17994080971157161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.30821.32625.817141.86395078579003.123.12FF-1.69273.30897433.828016219261.5445563424160.14003596440415161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024190-9630.1121.07425.592141.93388487863003.123.12FF-1.8969.1197433.8571581632361.5790319405110.13560578159724161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024190-9631.53223.4527.491143.13695968230.0614173560.0614173563.33.361417356FF-0.46874.53297434.3576767855662.1726372697520.16958364565529161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024190-9628.36422.125.232147.751556932840.5496065960.7396065963.294.029606596TF-3.63669.36497436.2633786943464.4585934348680.10066865470308161113124.5WETL
2024-03-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9628.422.125.25147.405853818810.5444884830.7344884833.263.994488483TF-3.671.497436.1213855227164.2868452016150.10131570664045161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-30 00:00:05FORECAST2024190-9628.36422.76625.565153.026090737890.6783468231.2083468233.424.628346823TF-3.63675.36497438.4144342062567.0888469896470.10066865470308161114126WETL
2024-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2024190-9635.85221.63228.742145.6715326972200.383.373.75TF3.85284.85297435.4071502989263.4264269313730.30251805003625162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 16:00:04FORECAST2024190-9633.38622.24427.815147.821522113070.03937010.73937013.324.0593701TF1.38680.38697436.292100837964.4933624317650.22138296670695161113124.5WETL
2024-03-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024190-9644.16822.51433.341146.3485956344700.173.553.72TF12.16878.16897435.6863555805763.7620862763170.62815784174457163112125DRYL
2024-03-29 08:00:05FORECAST2024190-9642.81821.57832.198147.585760223250.0881890240.3881890243.53.888189024TF10.81879.81897436.1952953568964.3762142710530.57532249597251163112125DRYL
2024-03-29 04:00:05FORECAST2024190-9642.81822.08232.45148.307552394680.082677210.392677213.624.01267721TF10.81878.81897436.4914854259164.7349838446350.57532249597251163112125WETL
2024-03-29 00:00:04FORECAST2024190-9632.82825.82629.327145.371677751360.0385826980.2085826983.874.078582698TF0.82877.82897435.283343474363.2778699380790.20491544252662161112123WETL
2024-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2024190-9627.91425.23226.573138.8257376354900.183.824TF-4.08664.91497432.5569645621360.0500396747060.092832635945691161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 16:00:05FORECAST2024190-9627.8623.6325.745138.9649548034400.23.783.98TF-4.1458.8697432.615421442460.1183824880130.091923389843508161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 12:00:06FORECAST2024190-9629.49828.59829.048141.2937442797700.223.763.98TF-2.50273.49897433.5902145757761.2635849004810.12252209112282161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 08:00:04FORECAST2024190-9627.98624.76426.375144.8801129800200.074.494.56TF-4.01467.98697435.0801776531263.0344652937520.09405525096721161111121.5WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:06FORECAST2024190-9625.19624.60224.899144.6512374205400.054.484.53TF-6.80465.19697434.9854958204862.9211902304220.054786160887815161111121.5WETL