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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 3, 2024

[ Tuesday, April 2, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 4, 2024 ]

DAY 186 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/04/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.192
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 171

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 93
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -100

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-04 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024186-10031.2999822.4299426.86496126.5154950.190000000000050.200000000000052.983.1800000000001FF-0.70002171.2999893424.69249359445 53.7301810498870.1918279990408316 1112123DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:01FORECAST2024186-9930.32619.63424.98124.382664565780.1094488780.1194488782.983.099448878FF-1.674170.32694424.4121229532952.7895107269470.16213361842173161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:01FORECAST2024186-9928.18419.63423.909124.391045224290.1118110840.1218110842.983.101811084FF-3.816168.18494424.4158159283252.7935269530430.10790056836422161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:02FORECAST2024186-9926.92417.97822.451124.356895506780.0992126520.1092126522.983.089212652FF-5.076166.92494424.4007672085352.7771618607470.082851511876018161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:04FORECAST2024186-9928.6719.424.035124.432103156710.1106299810.1206299812.983.100629981FF-3.33168.6794424.433907155852.8132037184160.11888773975774161112123DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024186-10030.1120.13825.124127.719390594530.1925197890.2825197892.983.262519789FF-1.89165.1193425.2213349466654.3090097671820.15597613552755161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:02FORECAST2024186-10029.01218.8623.936129.800151953680.2181103540.2881103542.983.268110354FF-2.988163.01293426.131557362555.3119408979090.12707715803109161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:01FORECAST2024186-10029.35420.17424.764129.653915786320.1822835630.2522835632.983.232283563FF-2.646163.35493426.0677438646455.2413513822920.13564993226959161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024186-10029.55220.4825.016128.770879561390.1787402540.2487402542.983.228740254FF-2.448163.55293425.6819066957654.8154335385840.14078973837589161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:02FORECAST2024186-10030.45220.51625.484128.651571376810.2003938090.2603938092.983.240393809FF-1.548164.45293425.6297093358654.7579309307120.16579741417695161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:04FORECAST2024186-10029.31819.72424.521129.341574148420.1992127060.2792127062.983.259212706FF-2.682162.31893425.9313670391255.0906334920280.13472937052188161112123DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2024186-10029.67820.60625.142130.258950150690.2169292510.3269292512.983.306929251FF-2.322157.67893426.3316106855955.5335080239590.14412827446563161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:01FORECAST2024186-10028.97620.06624.521132.076948616330.2248032710.3548032712.983.334803271FF-3.024156.97693427.1220384096856.4129755199380.12619713096335161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:02FORECAST2024186-10030.21820.85825.538132.093346550980.2531497430.3631497432.983.343149743FF-1.782159.21893427.1291512924256.4209190036930.15903540360455161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2024186-10030.86620.8425.853131.079382442280.2074804270.3374804272.983.317480427FF-1.134159.86693426.6887694420255.9301003935150.17820813703479161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024186-10030.1120.44425.277131.049986408490.1803150580.3003150582.983.280315058FF-1.89160.1193426.6759853197155.9158820769780.15597613552755161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2024186-10030.32619.7625.043130.991342831470.1838583670.3038583672.983.283858367FF-1.674160.32693426.6504788008255.8875191378090.16213361842173161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2024186-10031.87420.82226.348134.498670138580.1818898620.2818898622.983.261889862FF-0.126162.87493428.1692988969357.5882012958050.2107899702493161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2024186-10032.55821.54227.05134.667165904320.1740158420.2540158422.983.234015842FF0.558164.55893428.2419245719857.670126303520.23475890718484161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2024186-10031.92821.09226.51134.787577727890.1696851310.2296851312.983.209685131FF-0.071999999999999162.92893428.2938058868857.7286846513510.21262854100844161112123DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2024186-10033.18821.227.194134.121284487050.1783465530.1983465532.983.178346553FF1.188166.18893428.0065239093357.4047847555560.2581044769723162112124DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2024186-10032.95421.07427.014134.149324776220.1708662340.1908662342.983.170866234FF0.954166.95493428.0186236884257.4184093594470.24929533038514162112124DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2024186-10033.24221.41627.329133.576038716020.1523622870.1723622872.983.152362287FF1.242167.24293427.7710713085757.1399651827070.26016000740934162112124DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2024186-10033.87220.1226.996141.564627193690.1488189780.1488189782.983.128818978FF1.872168.87293431.1883724054561.0410211898310.28474799660126162112124DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2024186-10033.22420.08426.654141.875168385790.1413386590.1413386592.983.121338659FF1.224166.22493431.3198184600161.193571872140.25947389554594162112124DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024186-10032.93619.47226.204141.933884878630.1413386590.1413386592.983.121338659FF0.936165.93693431.3446603577661.2224233662320.24862437754822161112123DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2024186-10034.03419.38226.708142.707432658780.3248033250.3248033252.983.304803325FF2.034166.03493431.6715888997861.6027442036230.29124508913559162112124DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024186-10035.7819.56227.671142.510503512520.3145670990.3145670992.983.294567099FF3.78166.7893431.5884206446761.5058831362480.36522760611538162112124DRYL
2024-03-30 04:00:04FORECAST2024186-10034.6118.93226.771142.060700360370.2787403080.2787403082.983.258740308FF2.61164.6193431.3983010790661.2847447855650.31488723716054162112124DRYL
2024-03-30 00:00:04FORECAST2024186-10037.97620.85829.417143.862723458380.4177167610.41771676133.417716761FF5.976167.97693432.1586609798162.1715219346810.46557261615175162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2024186-10037.99419.97628.985143.581722035460.3673230330.36732303333.367323033FF5.994167.99493432.0403219306362.0330934115550.46641358884771162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2024186-10038.28221.05629.669143.276976062570.3185041090.31850410933.318504109FF6.282166.28293431.9118877543561.883029202920.47988700243894162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024186-10034.26819.18426.726145.479329185710.5370081640.54700816433.547008164TF2.268160.26893432.8378291633362.9689570328780.30074992086245162113126DRYL
2024-03-29 08:00:04FORECAST2024186-10033.60219.16626.384144.666722566790.4177167610.4177167613.013.427716761FF1.602160.60293432.4967855679862.5678924887890.27407564192804162112124DRYL
2024-03-29 04:00:04FORECAST2024186-10032.84619.14825.997145.321488891480.4830711270.4930711273.043.533071127TF0.846158.84693432.7716401036562.891019089870.24528407024825161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024186-10033.6223.3628.49142.898858268560.318897810.318897813.383.69889781TF1.62156.6293431.7523930062661.6969240153110.274780946835162112124DRYL
2024-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2024186-10033.49419.8526.672137.142829320760.2685040820.2685040823.473.738504082TF1.494155.49493429.3054187218758.8761597662510.26986266823846162112124DRYL
2024-03-28 16:00:04FORECAST2024186-10032.52219.34625.934137.169295523970.2082678290.2082678293.493.698267829TF0.522150.52293429.3167519693958.8890764242810.23346101808873161112123DRYL
2024-03-28 12:00:04FORECAST2024186-10035.9627.0531.505139.671547758950.2381891050.2381891053.483.718189105TF3.96155.9693430.3848222311460.1125142529830.37321023506722162112124DRYL
2024-03-28 08:00:03FORECAST2024186-10037.3128.74233.026140.238159702580.342519870.342519873.523.86251987TF5.31159.3193430.6257357240660.3901606985120.43459601097686162112124DRYL
2024-03-28 04:00:05FORECAST2024186-10035.36627.53631.451139.922256735020.3480316840.3480316843.483.828031684TF3.366158.36693430.4914620724560.2353368783360.34709254972468162112124DRYL
2024-03-28 00:00:04FORECAST2024186-10028.61621.18224.899141.207448113710.2267717760.3967717763.734.126771776TF-3.384144.61693431.0370571759660.8656428862590.11762943523002161112123WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2024186-10031.33420.89426.114134.087565329950.3929135980.5329135983.614.142913598TF-0.666148.33493427.9919724775857.3884015702820.19292189138796161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024186-10030.59621.2925.943134.022313760090.3362206540.4862206543.684.166220654TF-1.404149.59693427.9638097593757.3566999895340.17004945800898161112123WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:04FORECAST2024186-10029.24621.63225.439139.893087887390.5082679910.6882679913.734.418267991TF-2.754142.24693430.4790585030760.2210447648520.13290109405888161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2024186-10030.25421.43425.844137.32420422580.1984253040.3584253043.654.008425304TF-1.746143.25493429.3830710520558.9646885402540.16006381464141161112123WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:06FORECAST2024186-10027.84221.39824.62139.272636492210.3937010.5537013.594.143701TF-4.158134.84293430.2150040357559.9171778705640.10061872941513161113124.5WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2024186-10033.2621.50627.383136.149644459820.3625986210.4825986213.433.912598621TF1.26142.2693428.8795700178358.3918009740090.26084705193769162112124DRYL
2024-03-26 20:00:04FORECAST2024186-10028.00420.94824.476135.717970219010.5003939710.5003939713.273.770393971TF-3.996138.00493428.694145496758.1814992715850.10402220906241161113124.5DRYL
2024-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2024186-10028.0421.224.62135.332031667750.4874018380.4874018383.233.717401838TF-3.96140.0493428.5281943920257.9935911739860.10478970764497161112123DRYL
2024-03-26 12:00:03FORECAST2024186-10033.38625.9729.678132.881848702810.2374017030.2374017033.063.297401703FF1.386142.38693427.4708281052856.8031139051530.26568232544067162112124DRYL
2024-03-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024186-10030.00219.8524.926132.467128240810.1035433630.2235433633.083.303543363FF-1.998140.00293427.2912051345156.6020388667240.15295581058053161112123DRYL
2024-03-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024186-10029.78619.77824.782133.260957308950.1106299810.2306299813.173.400629981FF-2.214136.78693427.6348614769456.9870310190960.14703191414987161112123DRYL
2024-03-26 00:00:03FORECAST2024186-10034.0722.67628.373132.664594914030.2177166530.2177166533.153.367716653FF2.07152.0793427.3767551381656.6977640960750.29269822100319162112124DRYL
2024-03-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024186-10051.54834.82643.187128.09079762973003.323.32FF19.548175.54893425.3841586731854.4877961835010.93445787460158165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024186-10051.18835.52843.358127.06828500126003.213.21FF19.188180.18893424.9355212778953.9958279248970.92886803809093165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2024186-10035.36629.1232.243131.974976440090.2507875370.2507875373.093.340787537FF3.366145.36693427.0777995957956.3635825397380.34709254972468162112124DRYL
2024-03-25 08:00:04FORECAST2024186-10044.83430.237.517130.552855297660.0925197350.0925197353.183.272519735FF12.834152.83493426.4596419657455.6755239278450.76414843914555164112126DRYL
2024-03-25 04:00:06FORECAST2024186-10047.78627.24837.517130.281731044230.1251969180.1251969183.083.205196918FF15.786155.78693426.3415379406455.5445135789650.85698453153816165112127DRYL
2024-03-25 00:00:04FORECAST2024186-10034.23230.05632.144126.826145689170.1212599080.1212599082.993.111259908FF2.232155.23293424.829109548153.8794385405470.2992785658982162112124DRYL
2024-03-24 20:00:04FORECAST2024186-10034.66431.58633.125127.244966627060.1795276560.2895276563.093.379527656FF2.664163.66493425.0131253624254.0807809528030.31714516256849162112124DRYL
2024-03-24 16:00:04FORECAST2024186-10032.19826.65429.426129.450287791290.2228347660.4328347663.053.482834766FF0.198151.19893425.9788466383255.1430842903340.22196053091201161112123DRYL
2024-03-24 12:00:04FORECAST2024186-10028.3124.826.555130.198012675800.123.423.54FF-3.69128.3193426.3050530715155.5040707035630.11067648843125161112123DRYL
2024-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2024186-10026.09623.05424.575130.32825789576003.633.63FF-5.904128.09693426.3618112134355.566992088730.068944079545816161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-24 04:00:10FORECAST2024186-10024.0822.29823.189130.2728748556003.483.48FF-7.92134.0893426.3376787378255.5402350684390.042585596232739161111121.5DRYL