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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 29, 2024

[ Sunday, April 28, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 30, 2024 ]

DAY 212 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2024 04:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.052
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 166

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.65 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 120 in
SWE DAY: 119
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -74

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-27 16:00:01FORECAST2024212-7427.520.26423.882119.537197497620.6527562581.4827562581.122.602756258FF-4.5165.5119438.1811295080352.3789442177320.051629996953029161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2024212-7427.3220.35423.837120.459312379390.5807089751.4007089751.122.520708975FF-4.68165.32119438.5547807938152.8280073351140.04971763286885161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024212-7426.83420.13823.486120.769137949950.6078743441.4678743441.122.587874344FF-5.166162.834119438.6801292929852.9790210504870.044834725527983161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2024212-7426.8719.99423.432120.756431966270.7039373881.5639373881.122.683937388FF-5.13163.87119438.6749906755652.9728266668150.045182698438628161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2024212-7427.33819.6723.504116.330404249240.7236224381.6236224381.082.703622438FF-4.662162.338119436.874865900450.8218297565250.049906297401706161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2024212-7426.90619.3123.108115.493925435040.5720475531.5220475531.072.592047553FF-5.094160.906119436.5323791483350.4168380473370.045532834065737161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2024212-7426.27619.99423.135115.260010041570.5913389021.4913389021.072.561338902FF-5.724160.276119436.436474879550.3036724771210.039711235993573161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024212-7427.37419.4923.432115.309871015340.5437010811.4137010811.072.483701081FF-4.626162.374119436.4569224352850.3277914297650.050285333569161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:03FORECAST2024212-7427.62619.92223.774114.789618305260.515748311.335748311.082.41574831FF-4.374164.626119436.2434437720150.076218398760.053002996175039161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024212-7427.71620.80424.26115.211373600910.5389766691.3589766691.12.458976669FF-4.284165.716119436.4165269990450.2801475376970.054001260210993161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024212-7429.06622.62225.844121.367000152450.5535436061.3835436061.452.833543606FF-2.934169.066119438.9217323191653.2706139532920.07082069173822161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024212-7428.7620.85824.809115.714626563970.4649608811.2149608811.572.784960881FF-3.24165.76119436.6228133989950.5236458017750.06669446481213161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024212-7428.79621.30825.052116.407661814430.4787404161.2287404161.632.858740416FF-3.204162.796119436.9064614411150.8592596079760.067170055880877161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024212-7429.26422.125.682117.222592433050.3102363881.0702363881.672.740236388FF-2.736165.264119437.2393611362451.2543314261620.073592987085954161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2024212-7430.1121.03825.574119.008626707770.3838584751.1138584751.72.813858475FF-1.89169.11119437.9665517644552.1217978694250.086375947190103161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2024212-7429.44420.78625.115118.945873838080.3460631791.0660631791.612.676063179FF-2.556166.444119437.9410575743152.0912817827480.076184319479428161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2024212-7430.03821.77625.907116.21970316810.3846458771.0146458771.492.504645877FF-1.962164.038119436.8295823669250.7682043977280.085227498460215161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024212-7430.99221.4726.231118.715796444550.3929135981.0429135981.522.562913598FF-1.008166.992119437.8475507956351.9794207139980.10139246476457161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024212-7429.71421.8325.772119.396066721030.4799215191.1299215191.452.579921519FF-2.286162.714119438.1238644741852.3102661548370.080200283134184161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2024212-7431.13622.83826.987118.965594462190.4811026221.1711026221.482.651102622FF-0.864168.136119437.9490697786952.1008714303840.10401404217141161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024212-7432.12624.69228.409117.574160676250.4220474721.0620474721.512.572047472FF0.126169.126119437.382764371951.4249114152860.12337008793508161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2024212-7429.71422.65826.186117.078179344060.4185041631.0585041631.442.498504163FF-2.286162.714119437.1804185187551.1842874450510.080200283134184161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024212-7428.00420.69624.35123.752067038790.2019686130.8119686131.382.191968613FF-3.996151.004119439.8819223900954.4362971487690.057295641347349161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2024212-7428.56221.25424.908126.679680788830.4165356581.1165356581.332.446535658FF-3.438155.562119441.052608680455.8724036787130.064124999817858161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024212-7428.47221.66825.07127.132572309670.4169293591.1269293591.332.456929359FF-3.528151.472119441.2329334708356.095077819890.06298271718797161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024212-7429.85820.82225.34124.780585422830.3043308730.9543308731.152.104330873FF-2.142153.858119440.2941958609454.9401675178020.082406313483929161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:03FORECAST2024212-7429.96624.74627.356124.13618299070.350393891.030393891.032.06039389FF-2.034155.966119440.0360182570354.6243916848520.084090490605128161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024212-7429.62421.8325.727122.847204887720.2858269260.9158269260.981.895826926FF-2.376151.624119439.5183238847253.9935975861750.078844283075333161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:04FORECAST2024212-743223.64827.824125.728220428340.4704726951.2104726951.262.470472695FF0150119440.6730957271355.4050441164180.12077564260326161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024212-7432.66624.09828.382126.241422784430.413386051.083386051.22.28338605FF0.666150.666119440.877912818155.6570549883860.13492885170167161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:03FORECAST2024212-7430.3822.85626.618127.548158803620.421260071.021260071.22.22126007FF-1.62147.38119441.3982223577856.2995305609260.090785416600268161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024212-7432.10825.53828.823124.699099201080.4519687480.8019687481.191.991968748FF0.108154.108119440.2615720230754.9002214441260.12299708830641161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:04FORECAST2024212-7432.32425.41228.868125.2703051670.3141733980.7841733981.272.054173398FF0.324154.324119440.4901179752555.1803315018060.12752526936889161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024212-7431.53225.23228.382124.349934901050.3000001620.7700001621.262.030000162FF-0.468156.532119440.1217040625254.7291052487130.11147514804314161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024212-7429.60624.22426.915129.571223964540.3850395781.1350395781.883.015039578FF-2.394155.606119442.2003574395757.2964415510040.078575172536402161114126DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:04FORECAST2024212-7432.73827.46430.101126.673399142110.5602365230.8902365231.542.430236523FF0.738155.738119441.0501061002855.8693161317110.13652422530584161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2024212-7431.92826.94229.435126.931551867320.5751971610.9051971611.582.485197161FF-0.071999999999999155.928119441.1529201066255.9962247599310.11931041042468161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2024212-7435.94228.11232.027119.540551741001.261.26FF3.942166.942119438.1824902715852.380576650310.22052432614561161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2024212-7435.56428.05831.811119.955700062430.1433071640.4833071640.831.313307164FF3.564159.564119438.3508199045552.5826794745890.20930609910079161112123DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024212-7435.88827.55431.721119.789044295010.1433071640.5233071640.711.233307164FF3.888159.888119438.2832675386452.501533748950.21890097890653161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:04FORECAST2024212-7440.31630.32635.321118.2710689936000.470.47FF8.316171.316119437.6666521595251.7633028137570.37217875774498162111122DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:04FORECAST2024212-7446.47226.9636.716118.8078308051200.040.460.5FF14.472177.472119437.8849614478152.02416241180.61760938964892163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:04FORECAST2024212-7446.4926.04236.266118.7767064850100.040.450.49FF14.49176.49119437.8723108351952.0090309419860.61830667932467163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024212-7434.86220.91227.887126.11965736390.4992128681.1592128680.21.359212868FF2.862155.862119440.829340861655.5972454254170.1893846202719161114126DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024212-7441.9921.97431.982123.02298912450.5185042170.7985042170.190.988504217FF9.99157.99119439.589024245254.0795557489680.43799632874432162113126DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:05FORECAST2024212-7440.44223.05431.748126.601285566910.6559058661.2459058660.151.395905866FF8.442158.442119441.021373512155.8338728491190.37703025872852162114128DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024212-7424.821.52423.162124.517270532690.1228347120.5528347120.180.732834712FF-7.2132.8119440.1887507172654.8111017585070.028412895917171161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024212-7425.50222.71224.107122.872048552300.320.310.63FF-6.498139.502119439.5283179137354.0057448188070.033400852402731161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024212-7425.48422.71224.098122.9021721818600.340.390.73FF-6.516138.484119439.5404351040654.0204742360490.0332645164071161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024212-7427.5924.92626.258123.732706656800.210.780.99FF-4.41146.59119439.8741516015554.4268193660240.052607797998954161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:04FORECAST2024212-7432.21629.04830.632120.7119207940100.160.740.9FF0.216153.216119438.6569879366852.951127583550.12524693433735161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024212-7430.16429.37229.768128.207001930870.0547244390.9447244390.641.584724439FF-1.836145.164119441.6599030467556.6238920427020.087244823543056161113124.5DRYL