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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 28, 2024

[ Saturday, April 27, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, April 29, 2024 ]

DAY 211 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/28/2024 08:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.108
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 179

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.47 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 118 in
SWE DAY: 118
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -74

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-28 08:00:01FORECAST2024211-7430.16424.06227.113117.644499380740.4716537981.3316537980.842.171653798FF-1.836179.164119437.4114398692251.4590498668220.10828820451599161114126DRYL
2024-04-28 04:00:03FORECAST2024211-7430.12824.3527.239117.908671098820.4940947551.3540947550.842.194094755FF-1.872179.128119437.5190909566451.5872945950620.1076971800699161114126DRYL
2024-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2024211-7530.70423.86427.284119.008627769790.4338585021.1638585020.842.003858502FF-1.296178.704118437.3576489106952.0493336414820.11743401972018161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 20:00:01FORECAST2024211-7531.49624.13427.815116.558532467690.4259844821.1259844820.841.965984482FF-0.504180.496118436.3554397371850.8609496900590.1318127149457161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 16:00:01FORECAST2024211-7530.86624.20627.536116.542247756440.4196852661.1196852660.841.959685266FF-1.134179.866118436.3487576044350.853065016950.12028114613092161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2024211-7531.02824.54827.788117.787160518130.4141734521.1141734520.841.954173452FF-0.972180.028118436.8587884970751.4563562444590.12317640517312161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024211-7530.14624.24227.194117.969306949530.4165356581.1465356580.841.986535658FF-1.854178.146118436.9332772927951.5447159054170.10799240209078161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2024211-7530.57824.31427.446117.464923786350.3870080831.1470080830.841.987008083FF-1.422178.578118436.7269253207251.3000949982430.11525272076243161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2024211-7531.04622.67626.861112.733721158060.3881891861.1481891860.841.988189186FF-0.954177.046118434.7783828194149.0141849743160.12350108105907161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:01FORECAST2024211-7529.71422.3726.042112.602707780690.4641734791.1941734790.842.034173479FF-2.286175.714118434.7240911569548.951109801770.10106633706507161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2024211-7530.8324.58427.707112.340869687840.4437010271.1437010270.841.983701027FF-1.17175.83118434.6155318625848.8250868292870.11964429947748161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024211-7531.0123.93627.473112.608170840840.437008111.107008110.841.94700811FF-0.99177.01118434.7263553983548.9537396977150.12285232612883161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:03FORECAST2024211-7531.78424.38628.085112.290286859320.4421262231.0721262230.841.912126223FF-0.216178.784118434.594551663648.8007468738030.13732976606887161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024211-7532.19825.08828.643112.592100812920.440945121.090945120.841.93094512FF0.198180.198118434.7196948616548.9460037092250.14553254710257161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024211-7532.88225.89829.39118.616573431310.4748034061.1448034061.152.294803406FF0.882181.882118437.1976983169251.8588928864080.15979145796917161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024211-7532.30625.23228.769113.353518730290.4196852661.0696852661.262.329685266FF0.306179.306118435.0349808381649.3127458487710.14772535483473161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2024211-7532.12624.9828.553113.968482368280.4279529871.1279529871.262.387952987FF0.126176.126118435.2891786613149.6092470833650.14408286298307161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024211-7532.19826.13229.165115.708607182320.4468506351.1768506351.262.436850635FF0.198178.198118436.0063189815850.449683892050.14553254710257161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2024211-7533.74625.68229.714117.08408316990.4118112461.2118112461.232.441811246FF1.746180.746118436.5709415056651.1155084248120.17906288338461161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2024211-7533.1726.29429.732117.193044912920.3925198971.1625198971.182.342519897FF1.17179.17118436.6155852138651.1683098876470.16605911257012161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2024211-7533.63826.16829.903114.168166722940.342519871.032519871.12.13251987FF1.638175.638118435.371633674849.7055812598250.17657720160042161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024211-7534.35826.74430.551116.604146302660.3452757771.0852757771.092.175275777FF2.358178.358118436.3741550669550.8830358201250.19355988367798161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024211-7533.36826.1529.759116.781897294570.3834647741.1034647741.012.113464774FF1.368175.368118436.4470655096950.969116378870.17045879246728161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2024211-7535.2428.11231.676116.539388259190.456693161.1766931612.17669316FF3.24179.24118436.3475842336350.8516805349620.21566757768988161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2024211-7535.07828.20231.64115.541788193420.3448820761.1548820761.012.164882076FF3.078179.078118435.9377068183850.3690221867360.21150088010268161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2024211-7532.9925.6129.3114.822739486190.3393702621.1293702620.962.089370262FF0.99174.99118435.6416312319350.0215655322820.16212350144798161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024211-7531.9124.63828.274122.531957192710.3811025681.1411025680.862.001102568FF-0.09164.91118438.7879739083853.7655492356160.13979223243998161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2024211-7532.68424.76428.724124.138943647090.503937281.243937280.82.04393728FF0.684168.684118439.4361050667554.5511338833790.15557318062382161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024211-7532.10825.32228.715124.611064728010.5047246821.2447246820.812.054724682FF0.108165.108118439.6260191019354.7822663224280.14372196445748161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024211-7531.62223.97227.797122.952234378660.4228348741.0828348740.731.812834874FF-0.378165.622118438.9577360140253.9708344407230.13420737633992161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024211-7532.95426.20429.579122.191133021810.3783466611.1583466610.561.718346661FF0.954167.954118438.6501720399953.5991615217780.16134370952135161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024211-7530.7424.65627.698121.089391039220.3527560961.0227560960.61.622756096FF-1.26163.74118438.2038992590553.0618433122910.11806256620185161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:04FORECAST2024211-7531.76624.45828.112122.856601864360.5263782371.3263782370.682.006378237FF-0.234159.766118438.9191232017853.9241119698550.13698041132353161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024211-7532.05424.22428.139123.700144865320.440945121.240945120.641.88094512FF0.054000000000002160.054118439.2593908460354.3364502811070.1426429210572161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2024211-7531.58624.1727.878124.855059865380.377952961.157952960.651.80795296FF-0.414158.586118439.7240786402654.9017761628770.13352016731849161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024211-7533.00825.95229.48122.019733609460.1074803730.9174803730.631.547480373FF1.008164.008118438.5808268158153.515515654280.16251431386391161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:04FORECAST2024211-7532.64826.76229.705123.508359418080.4145671531.0345671530.721.754567153FF0.648163.648118439.1820926213754.2426597454660.1548141648875161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024211-7533.1727.84230.506122.604792043890.4110238441.0410238440.71.741023844FF1.17167.17118438.8174069936153.8011169296920.16605911257012161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024211-7533.87224.04428.958126.917672799920.4948821571.8748821570.772.644882157FF1.872167.872118440.5506011402255.9136570473220.18199045683049161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:04FORECAST2024211-7535.36625.05230.209123.210921081070.094488241.234488240.651.88448824FF3.366165.366118439.0621369865554.0972503099340.21894093058504161114126DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2024211-7535.27624.9830.128123.28429419840.0937008381.2537008380.671.923700838FF3.276166.276118439.0917364783454.1331148200810.21659991991801161114126DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2024211-7536.33828.14832.243119.67093174100.390.881.27FF4.338173.338118437.6274945779952.3712900316270.24513178678591161112123DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2024211-7534.21425.84430.029119.195197872530.1318898350.6018898350.581.181889835FF2.214166.214118437.4337099905152.1399976184330.19008612606815161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024211-7534.39425.03429.714119.002829157490.1318898350.6018898350.51.101889835FF2.394166.394118437.3552843492452.0465161845380.19443432248551161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024211-7539.8328.65234.241118.701273793600.140.340.48FF7.83172.83118437.2322679178251.9000271455090.35145765240919162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:04FORECAST2024211-7539.16429.87634.52119.264505205120.0397638010.2297638010.280.509763801FF7.164173.164118437.4619560901652.1736837391580.32988795415021162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:04FORECAST2024211-7538.28229.1233.701119.191068885010.03937010.21937010.280.4993701FF6.282172.282118437.4320270708852.1379908711170.30218020860787162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024211-7532.6323.88228.256121.794478082920.535433360.655433360.210.86543336FF0.63162.63118438.4896464223353.4056176307710.15443557348389161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024211-7533.92625.91629.921119.464469278420.2102363340.2802363340.20.480236334FF1.926157.926118437.5434232851852.2708928490280.18325421993933161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:05FORECAST2024211-7534.86226.65430.758121.388117626950.4692915920.5892915920.160.749291592FF2.862159.862118438.3250251971253.2074497174630.20601910874224161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024211-7531.74824.83628.292123.094050914260.4279529870.4279529870.190.617952987FF-0.252149.748118439.0149789322954.0401321688130.13663166262594161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024211-7533.74626.2429.993122.87204855230.3196852120.4096852120.230.639685212FF1.746155.746118438.9253606285253.9316582219840.17906288338461161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024211-7533.76426.2430.002122.902172181860.338582860.428582860.310.73858286FF1.764154.764118438.9375239517753.94637514580.179479288795161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024211-7534.05228.11231.082123.73270665680.1838583670.6438583670.361.003858367FF2.052161.052118439.2725109844454.3523767440340.18622416950199161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024211-7539.16429.28234.223120.713101594010.0889764260.4689764260.440.908976426FF7.164163.164118438.0511927229652.8785181305420.32988795415021162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024211-7537.20223.39630.299127.697236384040.4314962961.0414962960.51.541496296FF5.202157.202118440.861859086756.2968410325030.2697550984987162114128DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024211-7529.62423.39626.51129.108260671280.161417410.771417410.51.27141741FF-2.376144.624118441.423676670156.9914431139980.099664958801579161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024211-7532.48628.99430.74124.480047320580.0295275750.2395275750.560.799527575FF0.486152.486118439.5733392544454.7181100712560.15142883284161112123DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024211-7532.52228.99430.758123.587076650670.0295275750.2695275750.510.779527575FF0.522162.522118439.2138237885354.2811525065890.1521768534822161112123DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024211-7530.75828.23829.498122.7171711710300.010.530.54FF-1.242160.758118438.8628095232753.8560025168680.11837772742119161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024211-7531.38828.61630.002123.48846178931000.780.78FF-0.612161.388118439.1740708192654.2329304632190.12978367491146161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:06FORECAST2024211-7526.61823.70225.16123.63469838096000.790.79FF-5.382151.618118439.2330171798154.3044415979840.060615422935891161111121.5DRYL