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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 25, 2024

[ Wednesday, April 24, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, April 26, 2024 ]

DAY 208 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/26/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.227
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 190

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.69 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.73 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 109 in
SWE DAY: 115
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.06 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -78

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-26 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024208-7835.2900431.8500633.57005109.097550833330.689999999999940.729999999999941.312.0399999999999FF3.29004190.29004115431.37725396769 47.0622018930840.2272123640249716 1113124.5DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:01FORECAST2024208-7733.63829.87631.757114.915717893320.996063531.036063531.312.34606353FF1.638188.638116434.4423772671349.9242576669340.18037025708273161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:01FORECAST2024208-7733.9829.87631.928111.996151793191.1082683151.1482683151.312.458268315FF1.98188.98116433.2257193100848.5196134205640.18953595576064161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2024208-7734.30429.71432.009113.082462771481.0759848331.1159848331.312.425984833FF2.304189.304116433.6794672213549.0415422068130.19847800821664161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2024208-7734.41229.31831.865113.136587841291.0311029191.0711029191.312.381102919FF2.412189.412116433.7020423269449.0675692086710.20151423312858161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.31429.6631.487111.157831110880.8944886720.9944886721.312.304488672FF1.314185.314115432.2464099536148.0475734359090.17194760960791161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.63829.331.469112.75375520610.8708666120.9808666121.312.290866612FF1.638186.638115432.9165519880448.8129669275290.18037025708273161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2024208-7832.8127.87830.344112.59269650690.7917327110.9017327111.312.211732711FF0.81185.81115432.8490452512548.7356411852770.15935250988689161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.54828.6731.109112.526243590750.7791342790.8891342791.312.199134279FF1.548186.548115432.8211838821248.7037419687550.17800512912781161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.45829.17431.316111.712580672750.7799216810.8999216811.312.209921681FF1.458186.458115432.4796620729648.3134191386470.17565960529377161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:03FORECAST2024208-7833.04428.63430.839111.05276490280.7291342520.8491342521.312.159134252FF1.044186.044115432.2021963840947.9972489055150.16512337277919161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.4427.93230.686117.711965443710.6440948360.7540948361.312.064094836FF1.44178.44115434.981300584251.2025038230260.17519285544879161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:01FORECAST2024208-7834.28628.1331.208118.886417997780.6122050550.6922050551.312.002205055FF2.286179.286115435.4665807203351.7710619395810.19797466179481161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024208-7832.64827.93230.29119.368709814770.6177168690.6977168691.312.007716869FF0.648176.648115435.6654432747152.0048218745820.15543540596988161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.38627.82430.605118.333415309030.5523625030.6223625031.311.932362503FF1.386178.386115435.2382620679151.5032300236630.17379731938638161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.85428.74231.298117.603154853820.4507876450.4507876451.311.760787645FF1.854179.854115434.9362670706751.1498771678530.1861263603479161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024208-7833.58427.06830.326117.654212411930.4877955390.4877955391.311.797795539FF1.584179.584115434.957399847251.1745703117630.17894882943641161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024208-7833.1727.2330.2117.500801973810.5720475530.5720475531.311.882047553FF1.17173.17115434.8938948522251.100381418650.16828596036535161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024208-7832.21626.09629.156118.539605119420.5271656390.5271656391.311.837165639FF0.216173.216115435.3234293139451.6030674101070.14530207604404161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2024208-7831.51425.89828.706119.368235170770.5417325760.5417325761.311.851732576FF-0.486171.514115435.665247685352.0045917414290.12980034998808161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024208-7832.1826.49229.336118.55001894150.5181105160.5181105161.311.828110516FF0.18174.18115435.3277295875151.608110588360.1444781091717161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024208-7832.59426.52829.561118.970425469140.6051184370.6051184371.311.915118437FF0.594173.594115435.5012368996351.8117674462870.15414390642927161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2024208-7833.40427.60830.506118.239799699420.5901577990.5901577991.311.900157799FF1.404176.404115435.1995791675151.4579110700390.17426171230435161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.13426.72629.93118.049546735990.6551184640.6551184641.311.965118464FF1.134177.134115435.1209364047551.3658293179210.16737842338716161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024208-7833.04427.30230.173117.699329280470.5401577720.5401577721.311.850157772FF1.044173.044115434.976071485451.1963918668870.16512337277919161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.69227.98630.839117.647726032040.5562995130.5562995131.311.866299513FF1.692173.692115434.9547152797751.1714331795770.18179873136343161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.90827.08630.497118.712377783090.7724413620.7724413621.312.082441362FF1.908172.908115435.3947591809251.6867471366620.18758294525959161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.60225.73629.669117.65775739060.4681104890.4681104891.311.778110489FF1.602170.602115434.9588670158251.1762848502380.17942185526993161112123DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024208-7834.41225.64630.029116.773090070310.3854332790.3854332791.311.695433279FF2.412171.412115434.5923176552550.7486878534230.20151423312858161112123DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024208-7835.99624.4430.218118.8633477340.133858340.133858341.411.54385834FF3.996169.996115435.457062091651.7598841946180.24914613262046162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024208-7836.69824.04430.371118.983925003990.0933071370.0933071371.391.483307137FF4.698169.698115435.5068052658851.8183090564840.27202425215232162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024208-7836.524.63830.569118.931112118990.0940945390.0940945391.391.484094539FF4.5169.5115435.4850196137851.7927176938270.2654673043819162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024208-7835.4225.89830.659118.10465454498001.411.41FF3.42170.42115435.1437196199451.3924986831310.23116667312679161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024208-7833.8924.11629.003118.66541874244001.41.4FF1.89158.89115435.3753750557851.6640011911420.18709663801228161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024208-7834.2525.03429.642118.70729897779001.361.36FF2.25162.25115435.392662822951.6842869984550.19697027977812161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024208-7831.6424.27827.959120.3557272489001.391.39FF-0.36154.64115436.0716598377652.4837217524090.13249517450838161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024208-7832.37823.86428.121120.83792576001001.431.43FF0.378157.378115436.2697433053352.7179308528660.14904888404661161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024208-7833.67424.0828.877120.91001403401001.511.51FF1.674155.674115436.2993357774252.7529588118780.1813217907422161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024208-7836.66225.3431.001120.722256755350.0850394160.0850394161.471.555039416FF4.662164.662115436.2222494771252.6617344037740.27082612216982162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024208-7836.7724.76430.767121.083351213020.0405512030.0405512031.61.640551203FF4.77159.77115436.370469081452.8371987667750.2744283824131162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024208-7836.71626.11431.415122.23108000604001.71.7FF4.716157.716115436.8406792803353.3955080190080.27262430278727162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024208-7836.71626.11431.415124.61957911135001.71.7FF4.716152.716115437.8148340078154.560300342760.27262430278727162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024208-7839.23625.89832.567124.262954267160.1251969180.1251969181.631.755196918FF7.236153.236115437.6697588288754.386137225470.36244718448879162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024208-7840.87428.79634.835123.205021942230.1570866990.1570866991.551.707086699FF8.874161.874115437.2386174289253.8699934543190.42563331723495162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024208-7839.8330.99235.411123.468991669560.0263779670.0263779671.71.726377967FF7.83162.83115437.3463020675553.9987069266920.38502896142353162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024208-7839.3829.22834.304124.592706589310.0169291430.1769291431.81.976929143FF7.38158.38115437.8039068288254.5471737071770.36788118231728162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024208-7838.91229.64234.277124.423866380960.0165354420.1565354421.831.986535442FF6.912155.912115437.7352342339854.4647102945660.35032294963294162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024208-7839.2929.6634.475124.6841622203200.111.621.73FF7.29162.29115437.8410924002354.5918497915510.36448175733272162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024208-7839.36231.06435.213123.527990096730.0440945120.0440945121.471.514094512FF7.362163.362115437.3703602006454.027481523470.36720045941266162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024208-7840.15431.22635.69122.876523445230.0425197080.0425197081.431.472519708FF8.154169.154115437.1045078494553.7098823067780.39751828909051162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024208-7840.78430.86635.825124.40477489386001.571.57FF8.784151.784115437.7274672754354.455387031260.42209505237445162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:04FORECAST2024208-7840.78433.00836.896125.011611210430.3279529330.3779529331.632.007952933FF8.784154.784115437.9741613187254.7518555749920.42209505237445162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:05FORECAST2024208-7840.65832.50436.581124.602267634510.3169293050.3669293051.61.966929305FF8.658153.658115437.8077947240154.5518440106770.41715208692244162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024208-7845.17637.52641.351121.61831594725001.411.41FF13.176167.176115436.5898080381753.0973172133370.59651254008939163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024208-7846.1334.48440.307120.904215552680.177165450.177165451.351.52716545FF14.13175.13115436.2969556822852.750141174790.63310682726834163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024208-7846.79633.47640.136121.006046225140.149606380.149606381.381.52960638FF14.796173.796115436.3387488896952.7996268179660.65797661455804163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:04FORECAST2024208-7853.88830.27242.08120.825991343740.0555118410.1855118411.421.605511841FF21.888184.888115436.2648436656552.7121322243220.86845297499565165112127DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024208-7848.97432.32440.649121.034624900980.3366143550.5466143551.411.956614355FF16.974182.974115436.3504761688752.8135162084630.73420771637851164113129DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024208-7848.97433.09841.036121.70316544060.3338584480.5438584481.441.983858448FF16.974174.974115436.6245694958653.1385922167860.73420771637851164113129DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024208-7835.34829.76832.558122.35881205792001.281.28FF3.348156.348115436.8929247958953.4576992745350.22897120073837161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024208-7838.55231.94635.249125.6102265467200.571.391.96FF6.552155.552115438.2171410602855.0445543652390.33702862507649162113126DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:04FORECAST2024208-7836.2328.59832.414128.1166887482700.721.32.02FF4.23140.23115439.2305190330756.2727596956990.256656932721162113126DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024208-7832.82830.99231.91128.778113038590.0374015950.6574015951.472.127401595FF0.828139.828115439.4968627753956.5975766745960.15979168890064161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024208-7831.44228.47229.957125.1149712054500.131.481.61FF-0.558137.442115438.016141839954.8023769738230.12827755505633161112123DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024208-7831.51429.67830.596125.4738132370400.131.481.61FF-0.486141.514115438.1618029908954.9778322360850.12980034998808161112123DRYL