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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 24, 2024

[ Tuesday, April 23, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 25, 2024 ]

DAY 207 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/25/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.281
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 187

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 114
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -79

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-25 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024207-7938.3300628.6899833.51002110.139215416670.0400000000000770.0400000000000771.371.4100000000001FF6.33006187.33006114431.18494712756 47.4903717761070.2806709314196416 2111122DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2024207-7835.34827.6831.514110.020306029810.0972441470.0972441471.371.467244147FF3.348184.348115431.7670926498847.5031476669410.17993102712295161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7835.92427.98631.955110.059428283880.110236280.110236281.371.48023628FF3.924184.924115431.7836005439547.5218562182210.19739832417727161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2024207-7836.2328.83232.531110.025990087910.1173228980.1173228981.371.487322898FF4.23185.23115431.7694911776747.5058657565740.20708015409346161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:03FORECAST2024207-7836.37428.43632.405109.86539237710.1173228980.1173228981.371.487322898FF4.374185.374115431.7017096982647.4290777258650.2117316642175161112123DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.58227.7731.676115.446643214330.1110236820.1110236821.371.481023682FF3.582176.582114433.4173294840150.0365757998480.18690699436215161112123DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:01FORECAST2024207-7935.65429.46232.558117.005177759570.0799213030.0799213031.371.449921303FF3.654176.654114434.0671762555850.7881071173780.18908659846333161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.02428.4931.757117.167106388560.0834646120.0834646121.371.453464612FF3.024176.024114434.1345466302650.8662886119780.17054526976365161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.88828.32832.108116.372528536760.0744094890.0744094891.371.444409489FF3.888176.888114433.8036968960850.4828330963910.19627752605253161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024207-7936.19429.08432.639116.072088001.371.37FF4.194178.194114433.6784241024250.3379602061180.20592677409841161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024207-7935.52827.93231.73116.48027361667001.371.37FF3.528177.528114433.8485993975150.5348035660290.18528251428703161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024207-7935.70827.82431.766115.6733712001.371.37FF3.708171.708114433.5120259884450.1457975018250.19073150769823161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.81627.44631.631117.1477576001.371.37FF3.816172.816114434.1264980281450.8569457587370.19404751017087161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.74427.64431.694117.1930216001.371.37FF3.744171.744114434.1453260770150.8788025764830.19183296631814161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7937.05828.63432.846116.5453528001.371.37FF5.058174.058114433.8757150375150.5661982803990.23464381423904161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024207-7936.21228.41832.315116.5836304001.371.37FF4.212173.212114433.8916615404650.5846651026750.20650298802657161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2024207-7936.75229.1232.936116.01295975001.371.37FF4.752174.752114433.6537585088950.3094560313280.22422836299101161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:02FORECAST2024207-7936.62628.8532.738115.4480352001.371.37FF4.626175.626114433.4179110350850.0372462494890.22001702539793161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024207-7936.37428.97632.675115.5379728001.371.37FF4.374172.374114433.455481279450.080567606070.2117316642175161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024207-7936.4128.97632.693115.448724001.371.37FF4.41172.41114433.418198804850.0375780103920.21290400648871161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.67227.75231.712115.5860904001.371.37FF3.672170.672114433.4755782472250.1037473734760.18963393035767161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2024207-7933.58426.47430.029115.7546496001.371.37FF1.584168.584114433.5459599119750.1849606751060.13269020930522161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024207-7935.2425.95230.596115.26138836667001.371.37FF3.24169.24114433.3399143930549.9473601676350.17676710544286161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024207-7934.98825.26830.128118.35575284854001.471.47FF2.988165.988114434.6282354271251.4407520132090.16952206291419161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024207-7934.77226.27630.524118.6738632001.451.45FF2.772164.772114434.7601057778751.59466131790.16346555492131161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024207-7935.7827.10431.442118.6172832001.451.45FF3.78164.78114434.7366587368451.5672813668090.19293830194641161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.02427.71631.37118.20177534498001.471.47FF3.024167.024114434.5643668844251.3662796674060.17054526976365161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024207-7932.86425.75429.309118.70507394244001.461.46FF0.864156.864114434.7730382269951.6097656509150.11610791987878161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024207-7934.41227.30230.857118.75964777779001.421.42FF2.412160.412114434.7956489182751.6361781208510.15368689475917161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.2426.6930.965120.3557272489001.451.45FF3.24155.24114435.4555422631452.4095684736460.17676710544286161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.97827.2331.604120.84471536001001.491.49FF3.978156.978114435.6571778762152.6468676549950.19908674513953161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024207-7936.1427.17631.658120.93412203401001.571.57FF4.14154.14114435.6940178944152.6902735295320.20420385280356161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7937.7628.14832.954120.43929395072001.531.53FF5.76159.76114435.4900189708252.450110407430.2595165271073162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024207-7936.5926.76231.676121.19021361302001.661.66FF4.59154.59114435.7994941346452.8146337866250.21882215840294161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024207-7935.7828.70632.243122.39068480604001.761.76FF3.78152.78114436.2930176757253.3982012094270.19293830194641161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024207-7935.7828.70632.243124.77918391135001.761.76FF3.78147.78114437.2704848916654.5622542533030.19293830194641161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024207-7934.64627.64431.145124.46311597859001.691.69FF2.646145.646114437.141477723854.4079904409910.15999814571832161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024207-7938.4830.8334.655123.60364034223001.611.61FF6.48153.48114436.7901475700953.9888523052810.28637031986446162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7942.65633.29637.976123.81610361674001.761.76FF10.656154.656114436.8770681284354.0924163351660.46202737387417162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024207-7940.7332.05436.392124.875404444290.1625985130.1625985131.862.022598513FF8.73150.73114437.3097379729154.6092303967930.37771507733525162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024207-7939.95631.96435.96124.668429040850.1374016490.1374016491.892.027401649FF7.956148.956114437.2252906620954.5081901237710.34518372375015162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024207-7944.20432.86438.534125.049718220320.1110236820.1110236821.681.791023682FF12.204155.204114437.3808246958954.6943488831910.53124829359978163112125DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024207-7945.532.66639.083123.93674369673001.531.53FF13.5155.5114436.9264021506654.1512355176830.58856736822967163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024207-7945.96833.11639.542123.33959384523001.491.49FF13.968160.968114436.6820584775453.8601877321180.60887425724149163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024207-7942.92630.12836.527124.85072369386001.631.63FF10.926142.926114437.2996703973854.59718032020.47407715713813162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024207-7939.21826.38432.801124.794374980140.0496063260.0496063261.691.739606326FF7.218146.218114437.2766827124854.5696703124950.3151918800039162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024207-7938.98426.6932.837125.086690834510.0480315220.0480315221.661.708031522FF6.984144.984114437.3958984144854.7124055172570.30591936175565162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024207-7946.88629.42638.156122.73062954725001.471.47FF14.886153.886114436.4324985562153.5636353026840.64781072216985163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024207-7945.48230.32637.904121.80201715268001.411.41FF13.482161.482114436.0511996159353.1119156950680.58778119694225163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024207-7944.629.96637.283121.83998622514001.441.44FF12.6158.6114436.066807795353.130373855020.54888789458911163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024207-7944.2432.55838.399121.805924259140.1165354960.1265354961.481.606535496FF12.24163.24114436.0528058036153.1138150367020.53285495881334163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024207-7944.18634.4339.308121.381557129260.2031497160.2131497161.471.683149716FF12.186166.186114435.8782578701852.9075816590710.5304447684679163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024207-7944.22234.75439.488122.18506983530.1956693970.2056693971.51.705669397FF12.222158.222114436.2085944421653.2981775746750.53205169146755163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024207-7940.69430.235.447122.39030005792001.341.34FF8.694152.694114436.2928597435753.3980140171430.3761804912208162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024207-7945.17625.4335.303125.7063633467200.571.452.02FF13.176149.176114437.6483280530855.0151797443250.57436487930495163113127.5DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024207-7941.4523.4532.45128.1578199482700.731.352.08FF9.45136.45114438.6430669174956.2155391915670.40878182803861162113126DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024207-7946.77822.62234.7128.4503742589800.621.532.15FF14.778138.778114438.7613648669656.359061527540.64330060315043163113127.5DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024207-7942.18828.23835.213125.114971205450.129921330.129921331.541.66992133FF10.188138.188114437.4074273538554.7262176784290.44122972331419162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024207-7945.42827.06836.248125.473813237040.129921330.129921331.541.66992133FF13.428142.428114437.5536430702254.9015240917810.5854205812284163112125DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024207-7927.7723.4525.61124.9155928001.271.27FF-4.23114.77114437.3261299370454.6288527680150.038537021100453161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024207-7933.31427.30230.308125.57403473305001.291.29FF1.314140.314114437.5944560607754.9505014243650.12629082407356161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024207-7933.8926.27630.083126.11068457948001.31.3FF1.89136.89114437.8128181849455.2128742189730.14020794523116161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024207-7934.9730.00232.486123.867298400.011.271.28FF2.97153.97114436.8980053437254.1173755982760.16901193599176161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:05FORECAST2024207-7939.84836.91438.381123.45001105023001.281.28FF7.848162.848114436.7272672732553.913985970820.34072772570452162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024207-7939.34438.24638.795123.89217377395001.31.3FF7.344157.344114436.9081776838154.1295038728640.32023389323149162111122DRYL