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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 23, 2024

[ Monday, April 22, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 24, 2024 ]

DAY 206 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/24/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.876
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 178

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 113
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -80

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-24 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024206-8053.8734.7500444.31002109.92432083333001.91.9FF21.87177.87113430.45885488083 47.317897269470.8757251054157116 5111123.5DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:01FORECAST2024206-7946.1329.1237.625115.3168088001.91.9FF14.13170.13114433.3630775404849.9740471537150.61574586983959163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-7946.0429.62437.832116.2871904001.91.9FF14.04170.04114433.7681237120250.441676391550.61192334876474163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024206-7946.5830.25438.417116.2304136001.91.9FF14.58170.58114433.7444520430850.4142970576730.63468329659123163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024206-7947.28230.3838.831116.58546321667001.91.9FF15.282171.282114433.8924250556150.5855493613120.66356625779697163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024206-8045.87829.46237.67115.7879088001.91.9FF13.878164.878113432.9341630523150.1285413879050.60501565190115163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:01FORECAST2024206-8047.17429.40838.291117.2635744001.91.9FF15.174166.174113433.5513291050950.8397785367330.65917994921429163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:01FORECAST2024206-8046.34628.77837.562117.2985064001.91.9FF14.346165.346113433.5659106687350.8566337473970.6248734821056163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-8047.15630.25438.705116.7151912001.91.9FF15.156166.156113433.322249433250.5752891938090.65844678226828163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024206-8047.49829.76838.633116.7314272001.91.9FF15.498166.498113433.3290363875250.5831168647160.67227196140184163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2024206-8047.8430.36239.101116.19893575001.91.9FF15.84166.84113433.1062989092650.3264909998770.68586509206714163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:02FORECAST2024206-8048.1130.07439.092115.6060656001.91.9FF16.11168.11113432.857950747350.0410046495740.69642250479644163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024206-8047.69630.05638.876115.6994472001.91.9FF15.696164.696113432.8970923073350.0859542744450.6801709561085163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024206-8047.89430.36239.128115.6121664001.91.9FF15.894164.894113432.8605082243650.0439411048230.68798914310276163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-8047.37230.70439.038115.6769136001.91.9FF15.372164.372113432.8876480388750.07510706070.66720462879412163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:01FORECAST2024206-8046.79629.96638.381115.7892864001.91.9FF14.796163.796113432.9347402839250.1292046352440.64366115530966163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024206-8046.07630.23638.156115.33371236667001.91.9FF14.076163.076113432.7437389184849.9099419128990.61345368138546163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:02FORECAST2024206-8047.80431.24439.524118.432308048540022FF15.804159.804113434.0384884080951.404179964070.68444562720822163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024206-8047.01230.5638.786118.7391024001.981.98FF15.012159.012113434.1661290060751.5524964506630.65256012567724163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024206-8046.97630.8338.903118.7190288001.981.98FF14.976157.976113434.1577805035351.5427900473420.65108262941124163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-8047.62431.35239.488118.2986993449800.021.982FF15.624160.624113433.9828699278351.3396090504640.67730778793893163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024206-8045.37430.79438.084118.71638994244001.991.99FF13.374153.374113434.1566829851751.5415140733850.58332245289655163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024206-8045.91431.2838.597118.82665817779001.951.95FF13.914154.914113434.2025380073151.5948365637250.60655363431368163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024206-8046.18430.70438.444120.439760848900.011.971.98FF14.184149.184113434.8718802947952.3758652626170.61803401880845163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024206-8046.14830.81238.48120.9598433600100.031.992.02FF14.148150.148113435.0870998176152.6280674418970.61650903870117163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024206-8044.85229.40837.13121.0714884340100.062.042.1FF12.852146.852113435.1332635078452.6822318800430.56058463349835163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-8045.48229.91237.697120.6381603507200.032.032.06FF13.482151.482113434.9540151299952.472052222440.58799483064245163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024206-8045.12230.86637.994121.3489328130200.122.072.19FF13.122147.122113435.2479262401552.8168713583240.57237546762507163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024206-8045.96829.80437.886122.5235248060400.112.182.29FF13.968145.968113435.7324696236153.3874780507260.6088574876874163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024206-8045.96829.80437.886124.9120239113500.112.182.29FF13.968140.968113436.7133272706854.5507455784420.6088574876874163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024206-8044.45630.99237.724124.5386871785900.082.142.22FF12.456140.456113436.560405435554.3686597670920.5431966747855163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024206-8045.71631.94638.831123.9283603422300.092.052.14FF13.716143.716113436.3100979623354.0711950412280.5980747967788163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-8045.62629.76837.697124.5607948167400.12.192.29FF13.626140.626113436.5694649480754.379439546650.59420520820899163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024206-8045.37428.52636.95125.2681641146700.232.162.39FF13.374139.374113436.8590701796754.7245336982480.58332245289655163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024206-8044.97829.33637.157125.1125639913700.232.192.42FF12.978137.978113436.7954103096654.6485937235020.566094371582163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024206-8044.65430.18237.418125.2031328665800.152.062.21FF12.654139.654113436.8324673432654.6927934492160.55190311923683163112125DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024206-8044.18630.7437.463124.7040668967300.032.032.06FF12.186139.186113436.6281642365354.4493078019510.5312915686921163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024206-8046.56231.24438.903124.2354274452300.0222.02FF14.562143.562113436.4360809411654.2208230682450.6339317209227163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-8041.30631.94636.626125.4188852938600.052.112.16FF9.306129.306113436.9207099683454.7981084060320.40469974414896162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024206-8040.26229.87635.069125.1505829801400.042.182.22FF8.262136.262113436.8109671438154.6671471901680.36050871006774162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024206-8040.58629.49835.042125.4600204345100.042.152.19FF8.586134.586113436.9375287302654.8181912831040.37405567732007162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024206-8044.29432.30638.3123.6153439472500.021.982FF12.294136.294113436.181572943453.9187351628520.53605757238457163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024206-8046.14831.04638.597122.6881091526800.011.931.94FF14.148145.148113435.8002486573753.4675084760420.61650903870117163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024206-8046.09430.7438.417122.63299182514001.971.97FF14.094143.094113435.7775534258353.440705146850.61421818839498163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024206-8048.3830.52439.452122.516053607440.0125984320.0525984321.972.022598432FF16.38148.38113435.7293921664153.3838455689970.70681861923521164111123DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024206-8048.50633.06240.784122.276209929260.0125984320.0825984321.932.012598432FF16.506150.506113435.6305672557653.2672546933680.71161303701127164111123DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024206-8048.66833.78241.225123.12036183530.0122047310.1022047311.942.042204731FF16.668142.668113435.9781238459953.6777843601950.71772247215193164112126DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024206-8041.66629.06635.366122.8445144579200.011.861.87FF9.666140.666113435.8646331506953.5435792287750.42025701639373162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024206-8036.01425.28630.65126.251892946720.5661420380.6261420381.922.546142038FF4.014133.014113437.2609562187855.2050234343150.20362336419155161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024206-8033.24224.74628.994128.479391148270.724409840.734409841.882.61440984FF1.242124.242113438.1672608155156.295462890680.1278316340872161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024206-8031.85623.88227.869128.843383858980.6196853740.6196853742.062.679685374FF-0.144120.856113438.3148721125356.4739713186930.098388574257785161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024206-8038.46226.56432.513124.62357725961002.072.07FF6.462125.462113436.5951898586354.4100543745220.2887871015881162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024206-8037.25625.35831.307125.01316514003002.072.07FF5.256126.256113436.7547306022654.6000912624710.24483575099824161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024206-8038.58825.08831.838124.9155928001.81.8FF6.588115.588113436.7147884175654.5524866797060.29358460954526162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024206-8045.91428.43637.175125.58308753305001.821.82FF13.914135.914113436.9878361951954.8782816837780.60655363431368163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024206-8045.5926.85236.221126.12642857948001.831.83FF13.59131.59113437.2097556919455.143705025530.59265476935893163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024206-8047.71430.07438.894123.90449360.0133858340.0133858341.81.813385834FF15.714147.714113436.3003018390854.0595679568990.68088508395986163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024206-8052.50230.43441.468123.72041425023001.811.81FF20.502151.502113436.2247263672753.9699038523530.84179548154538164111123DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024206-8050.7230.21840.469124.00356257395001.831.83FF18.72146.72113436.3409608946154.1078336478740.78928245137358164111123DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024206-8033.90828.59831.253126.73674132638001.811.81FF1.908141.908113437.4586638272955.4420855184650.14396144031277161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024206-8035.72629.55232.639128.648752001.81.8FF3.726143.726113438.2359593190156.3785092479140.19469243858944161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024206-8034.68230.70432.693128.0079712001.81.8FF2.682145.682113437.9758812116856.0644039884390.1643598515401161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024206-8040.6436.89638.768124.9091584001.81.8FF8.64166.64113436.7121540855254.5493476298730.37632922591105162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:04FORECAST2024206-8039.09235.70837.4125.2668424001.81.8FF7.092165.092113436.8585295393654.7238885709030.31313320394452162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024206-8037.86836.98637.427125.90954828333001.81.8FF5.868157.868113437.1212109142455.0377342112760.26668156001088162111122DRYL