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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 22, 2024

[ Sunday, April 21, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 23, 2024 ]

DAY 205 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/23/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.711
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 152

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 112
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -81

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-23 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024205-8148.6199423.5999436.10994117.3636104166700.092.012.1FF16.61994151.61994112432.96752931447 50.814632433530.7110239102950416 4111123DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:02FORECAST2024205-8043.55623.0933.323116.491862400.092.012.1FF11.556146.556113433.2288653724950.467637372680.501268992585163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:01FORECAST2024205-8044.16821.97433.071117.494617600.092.012.1FF12.168147.168113433.647748783250.9512764163830.52791755259206163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:02FORECAST2024205-8043.50221.41632.459117.496880800.092.012.1FF11.502146.502113433.6486929891550.9523687892220.4989156387822162111122DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2024205-8043.64622.04632.846117.0147701500.092.012.1FF11.646146.646113433.4474340342250.7197518656220.50519111035581163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:02FORECAST2024205-8144.56421.39832.981116.38844400.092.012.1FF12.564147.564112432.5584979737550.3448105181420.54510182471904163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2024205-8143.8822.24433.062116.466967200.092.012.1FF11.88144.88112432.5914718706750.3826167653610.51538532269604163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:01FORECAST2024205-8144.22223.0933.656116.421900.092.012.1FF12.222145.222112432.5725478066250.3609179034870.53026464683622163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024205-8144.04222.31633.179116.443646400.092.012.1FF12.042145.042112432.5816795577650.3713881335420.52243736825606163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:01FORECAST2024205-8143.722.44233.071116.48684400.092.012.1FF11.7144.7112432.5998176035550.3921874676140.50754416443981163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024205-8144.02422.85633.44116.0243819666700.092.012.1FF12.024145.024112432.4055330688950.1695847332850.5216541140042163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:02FORECAST2024205-8145.2323.16234.196119.1868392485400.192.012.2FF13.23140.23112433.7295659314151.6948560520060.57379710251833163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024205-8144.72622.11833.422119.452108800.172.012.18FF12.726139.726112433.8401441944851.8231201061260.55210933885029163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024205-8144.49222.78433.638119.43715200.172.012.18FF12.492139.492112433.8339113975451.8158868183420.54198273096906163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024205-8144.624.22434.412119.0955425449800.192.012.2FF12.6140.6112433.6914914395651.6507234701360.54666034171882163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024205-8143.12422.53232.828119.3720291424400.182.012.19FF11.124136.124112433.806770643551.7843944674450.48244780302185162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:03FORECAST2024205-8143.4322.98233.206119.5106365777900.142.012.15FF11.43137.43112433.8645316110251.851426361360.49577790656167162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.87221.79432.333121.154144848900.172.012.18FF10.872130.872112434.547872180952.6472758499870.47148412814227162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.76421.231.982121.6675361600100.212.012.22FF10.764131.764112434.760746805252.8962688828730.46679153182384162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024205-8141.28821.1131.199121.6844220340100.292.012.3FF9.288130.288112434.7677437172952.904461613270.40339201502109162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024205-8144.16822.31633.242121.3064931507200.252.012.26FF12.168134.168112434.6110714571152.7211449629390.52791755259206163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024205-8143.1623.01833.089122.0331080130200.382.012.39FF11.16130.16112434.9121598593253.073682580290.48401532076135162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024205-8142.33220.76831.55123.1988440060400.482.012.49FF10.332128.332112435.3940480899553.6400434117930.44807372163869162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.33220.76831.55125.5873431113500.482.012.49FF10.332123.332112436.3769526532554.803422078750.44807372163869162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.4421.75832.099125.1870447785900.412.012.42FF10.44124.44112436.2126393213254.6081712117070.45274399800071162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.83621.90232.369124.7365195422300.332.012.34FF10.836125.836112436.0275090556754.388553904270.46991945702868162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024205-8141.921.7431.82125.3356948167400.482.012.49FF9.9122.9112436.2736762718354.6806643457830.42947082854029162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.00819.3130.659125.9979969146700.582.012.59FF10.008122.008112436.5453431536755.0038387997880.43410855301078162113126DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024205-8140.35220.10230.227125.8486943913700.612.012.62FF8.352121.352112436.4841412798254.9309593026030.36436068273811162113126DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024205-8143.30422.8233.062125.9612064665800.42.012.41FF11.304123.304112436.5302642214154.9858787405060.49028762037239162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024205-8144.54623.77434.16125.4485612967300.252.012.26FF12.546122.546112436.3200048041254.7357168676610.54432230428632163112125DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024205-8145.6824.96235.321125.1193546452300.212.012.22FF13.68124.68112436.1848375482954.5751653800760.59297637086203163112125DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.15226.47434.313125.9155100938600.352.012.36FF10.152116.152112436.5115331449454.9635723577990.44030621136509162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024205-8144.47425.93435.204125.5059053801400.412.012.42FF12.474124.474112436.3435378583154.7636907756820.54120254578847163112125DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024205-8143.95226.45635.204125.8355148345100.382.012.39FF11.952121.952112436.4787376200854.9245266627410.51852029078789163112125DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024205-8146.36426.47436.419124.2854479472500.162.042.2FF14.364120.364112435.8419419218254.1688109859530.62169253255356163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024205-8147.69627.10437.4123.4660595526800.12.042.14FF15.696126.696112435.5043079241353.7700008176110.67560384921025163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024205-8146.86830.30838.588123.4015942251400.132.042.17FF14.868124.868112435.4777147626253.7386442512280.64243942777373163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024205-8147.06631.11839.092123.5303608074400.172.042.21FF15.066128.066112435.5308290650753.8012804571720.65048011232807163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024205-8148.84831.29840.073123.4521883292600.172.032.2FF16.848129.848112435.4985861509353.7632534746310.71947889422213164112126DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024205-8147.13830.00238.57124.330288235300.192.042.23FF15.138122.138112435.8603983649754.190648959070.65338757244182163112125DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024205-8145.24832.10838.678123.3199832579200.042.032.07FF13.248127.248112435.4440424556653.6989520253930.57456795444178163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024205-8143.55627.89635.726124.0809321978800.122.062.18FF11.556124.556112435.7577357524454.0692260645990.501268992585163112125DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024205-8143.12427.2335.177123.869160458410.0122047310.0422047312.052.092204731FF11.124119.124112435.6704959320653.9661385676030.48244780302185162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.22427.28434.754124.5707243929500.252.012.26FF10.224117.224112435.9593270088254.307769171350.44341063134994162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024205-8142.24230.63236.437124.8637716596100.2722.27FF10.242115.242112436.0798210887954.4505712057950.44418728696722162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024205-8141.39629.49835.447125.1849715400300.2722.27FF9.396117.396112436.2117878692554.6071602498390.40796654594538162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024205-8139.05628.11233.584125.16808720022FF7.056105.056112436.2048535237254.598927142920.31263082791604162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024205-8140.94629.69635.321126.26962433305002.022.02FF8.946117.946112436.6566287655755.1364684767640.38899576246442162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024205-8140.42428.81434.619126.75441737948002.032.03FF8.424114.424112436.8550575199655.373308295220.36731937531983162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024205-8144.1143238.057124.65863120022FF12.114128.114112435.9954816185554.3505999479530.52556948848406163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024205-8143.80831.71237.76124.67823985023002.012.01FF11.808126.808112436.0035452295854.3601545876850.51224940330963163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024205-8143.05229.55236.302125.20266497395002.032.03FF11.052124.052112436.21905418854.6157880967550.47931360557235162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024205-8141.91830.03835.978126.75297732638002.012.01FF9.918135.918112436.8544684591855.3726045355360.4302431249883162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024205-8143.95230.05637.004128.67718960022FF11.952135.952112437.639657992156.3142412479280.51852029078789163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024205-8145.84232.79239.317128.03877040022FF13.842138.842112437.3795714433856.001542525690.59982922021246163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024205-8155.2237.25646.238125.1949120022FF23.22154.22112436.2158702459254.6120074884410.89934972518759165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024205-8150.12636.1443.133125.48499520022FF18.126154.126112436.3349570666354.7534899930980.76452243363788164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024205-8149.13633.04441.09125.998501883330022FF17.136148.136112436.5455501103155.0040853177350.72998214489071164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:05FORECAST2024205-8136.51833.20634.862127.34662480022FF4.518124.518112437.0971203233955.6628429829830.22192736333004161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024205-8133.15224.54828.85128.97125935168002.032.03FF1.152116.152112437.759317703656.4583704971650.12847155918026161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024205-8133.15224.54828.85129.22002320022FF1.152113.152112437.8604722619656.5803403840540.12847155918026161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:05FORECAST2024205-8134.28631.132.693128.10013071284002.022.02FF2.286121.286112437.4045874365356.0315848250150.15633188421511161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:04FORECAST2024205-8139.18235.1537.166128.21770164332002.152.15FF7.182126.182112437.4525090520456.0891552887580.31752111417363162111122DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:06FORECAST2024205-8136.91436.1436.527128.7854346251002.152.15FF4.914119.914112437.683714292656.3672873734990.23501515701995161111121.5DRYL