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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 21, 2024

[ Saturday, April 20, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, April 22, 2024 ]

DAY 204 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/22/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.243
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 131

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.28 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 118 in
SWE DAY: 111
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -82

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024204-8235.3199223.0799229.19992117.5735837500.092.282.37FF3.31992131.31992111432.42786876835 50.842094244470.2428239746838916 1111121.5DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:02FORECAST2024204-8135.18620.94828.067116.944502400.092.282.37FF3.186131.186112432.7918595452950.6126286572950.23842782917627161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024204-8133.0821.50627.293116.985338400.092.282.37FF1.08129.08112432.8089842414650.6323054840480.17528640784938161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:01FORECAST2024204-8132.82821.54227.185116.990947200.092.282.37FF0.828128.828112432.8113361694350.6350081773590.16851192286143161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024204-8132.97220.9326.951116.5605635666700.092.282.37FF0.972128.972112432.6307667847350.4276859927080.17236223234106161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:02FORECAST2024204-8233.47620.78627.131119.7868824485400.192.282.47FF1.476123.476111433.3555065399651.910305120330.18627477887888161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:01FORECAST2024204-8232.64821.93827.293119.991045600.172.282.45FF0.648122.648111433.4408129819252.0090163554150.16377724173312161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024204-8233.02621.72227.374119.987601600.172.282.45FF1.026123.026111433.4393743261352.0073509643970.17382041859258161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024204-8233.83622.58628.211119.676791344980.0177165450.1877165452.282.467716545FF1.836123.836111433.3094882986251.8570892189140.19662528453936161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024204-8231.94620.33626.141119.8720979424400.182.282.46FF-0.053999999999998120.946111433.3911179061451.9515025330290.14614328698194161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:03FORECAST2024204-8232.95422.04627.5120.0331405777900.142.282.42FF0.954121.954111433.4583962226952.0293726084230.17187790520195161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024204-8232.23420.85826.546121.63404164890.0129921330.1729921332.282.452992133FF0.234116.234111434.1257056055452.8044641564840.15321766350684161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024204-8232.50421.4726.987122.134050560010.0271653690.2071653692.282.487165369FF0.504116.504111434.3335706417453.0469182766660.16005212690239161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024204-8232.21621.09226.654122.081859634010.0618110570.2918110572.282.571811057FF0.216117.216111434.311886028653.0216027075260.15276899417346161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024204-8232.52221.34426.933121.822502750720.0295275750.2495275752.282.529527575FF0.522117.522111434.2040841577752.8958282366830.16051472044848161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024204-8231.98221.54226.762122.519794413020.1185040010.3785040012.282.658504001FF-0.018000000000001114.982111434.4937528080353.2340852677820.14701541897539161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024204-8231.40620.17425.79123.632394406040.1098425790.4798425792.282.759842579FF-0.594114.406111434.9548876220153.7745142153210.13347704840855161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024204-8231.40620.17425.79126.020893511350.1098425790.4798425792.282.759842579FF-0.594109.406111435.9404484131254.9376048267610.13347704840855161112123DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024204-8231.92820.64226.285125.644309578590.0842520140.4142520142.282.694252014FF-0.071999999999999109.928111435.7854562313254.7539627725760.14570852318999161112123DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024204-8232.25221.16426.708125.250659542230.0885827250.3285827252.282.608582725FF0.252111.252111435.6232815219654.5621033225740.15366720281484161112123DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024204-8231.58621.88426.735125.762750816740.1015748580.4815748582.282.761574858FF-0.414108.586111435.8342195560654.8117103514360.13761268752774161112123DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024204-8229.67819.92224.8126.400649714670.2299213840.5799213842.282.859921384FF-2.322107.678111436.0965961592355.1228930928820.09808609805133161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024204-8228.99421.2925.142126.157375191370.2299213840.6099213842.282.889921384FF-3.006108.994111435.9965841421555.0041846477760.086160557787744161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024204-8232.66622.3727.518126.494928066580.145669370.395669372.282.67566937FF0.666107.666111436.1353380982955.1689082200380.16424679651613161112123DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:03FORECAST2024204-8232.5422.78427.662126.068973296730.0322834820.2522834822.282.532283482FF0.54105.54111435.9602261358654.961058107160.16097818430482161112123DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024204-8234.39422.80228.598125.803234645230.0165354420.2065354422.282.486535442FF2.394107.394111435.8508837491454.8314509986230.21333931759421161112123DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024204-8232.16224.04428.103126.445295693860.0476378210.3476378212.282.627637821FF0.162102.162111436.1149437522655.1446830192660.15142820525864161112123DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024204-8235.07823.4529.264126.151704580140.0421260070.4121260072.282.692126007FF3.078108.078111435.9942521733955.0014180988180.23491448567681161112123DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024204-8233.54824.20628.877126.461634034510.043307110.383307112.282.66330711FF1.548105.548111436.1216575933255.1526574570920.1883174745871161112123DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024204-8235.18623.16229.174125.024235147250.015748040.155748042.312.46574804FF3.186102.186111435.5299264236254.4517959348530.23842782917627161112123DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024204-8236.80624.83630.821124.304427552680.0145669370.1045669372.312.414566937FF4.806106.806111435.2327918404354.1013630418810.29440650643353162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024204-8238.26424.69231.478124.2884734251400.132.312.44FF6.264106.264111435.2261998648654.0935999758290.34943709715908162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024204-8240.40623.93632.171124.423242407440.03937010.16937012.312.4793701FF8.406109.406111435.2818757265554.159182339090.43603923956689162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024204-8239.50622.7331.118124.455868329260.0677165720.1677165722.32.467716572FF7.506108.506111435.2953513063654.1750609265230.39901344025699162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024204-8238.24623.37830.812125.26833543530.0858268180.1858268182.312.495826818FF6.246103.246111435.6305670586654.5707160001750.34873486618083162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024204-8242.96223.41433.188124.040566457920.0141732360.0441732362.32.344173236FF10.962109.962111435.1237345680553.9729945151070.54317946236953163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024204-8240.3722.60431.487124.631086597880.0566929440.1166929442.332.446692944FF8.37109.37111435.3677031196554.2603499094250.43454509639261162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024204-8239.8322.62231.226124.3848148986700.032.322.35FF7.83103.83111435.2660024680454.1404811486690.41225668334173162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024204-8239.9221.54230.731125.0521955929500.252.282.53FF7.92102.92111435.541457460854.4654155272250.41595385675919162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024204-8239.90222.38831.145125.4018228596100.272.272.54FF7.902100.902111435.685576491254.6357654856370.41521381573966162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024204-8239.70423.14431.424125.6622115400300.272.272.54FF7.704103.704111435.7928275712454.7626904858860.40709376314452162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024204-8236.7724.54830.659125.493988002.272.27FF4.7793.77111435.7235463550654.6806854975990.29309945680529162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024204-8240.38828.81434.601126.83335793305002.292.29FF8.388105.388111436.2743331708655.3341386560620.43529205250972162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024204-8240.65825.91633.287127.18422857948002.32.3FF8.658101.658111436.4183116472855.5055263048170.44652263590399162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024204-8241.4530.5636.005125.382068002.272.27FF9.45112.45111435.6774367981554.6261380066920.4796805475518162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024204-8242.83629.3936.113125.46996625023002.282.28FF10.836110.836111435.7136508172154.6689770628010.53790752788007163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024204-8241.84629.22835.537125.84019857395002.32.3FF9.846108.846111435.8660975637754.8494762690790.49632694815812162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024204-8243.86231.26237.562127.29821172638002.282.28FF11.862121.862111436.4650566053855.5612211869190.58056125312082163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024204-8244.54631.6438.093129.3017344002.272.27FF12.546119.546111437.2845037414456.5416447600110.60851102860274163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024204-8246.56234.35840.46128.8798936002.272.27FF14.562120.562111437.1123159200256.3349887670220.68721860503002163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024204-8251.49438.71445.104126.7124368002.272.27FF19.494127.494111436.2246838913655.2750926881840.8432967502846164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024204-8252.08836.10444.096126.8418328002.272.27FF20.088132.088111436.2778123137155.3382773238450.85786495444619165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024204-8250.68433.72842.206127.09871228333002.272.27FF18.684126.684111436.3832321752555.4637468715130.82190490389781164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024204-8248.25430.05639.155127.4622448002.272.27FF16.254116.254111436.5323034970855.6413873314530.74741553646659164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024204-8243.19632.75637.976128.97903295168002.32.3FF11.196111.196111437.1527994050256.383545319380.55294937001352163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024204-8243.30430.63236.968129.2277968002.272.27FF11.304108.304111437.2543370770956.5054146217170.55744810864168163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024204-8245.10433.0839.092128.13309471284002.292.29FF13.104115.104111436.8070332695455.9694369651610.63091130351834163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:04FORECAST2024204-8249.24437.97643.61128.41814244332002.422.42FF17.244115.244111436.9236257855156.1089204129780.77957936457008164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:06FORECAST2024204-8247.58837.47242.53128.8596282251002.422.42FF15.588110.588111437.1040393133656.3250640016080.72446454715988164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024204-8237.61632.3634.988136.60011950936002.632.63FF5.61676.616111440.2345491537860.1360920265570.32449780265791162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:05FORECAST2024204-8238.31832.8135.564137.27670811055002.742.74FF6.31874.318111440.5052700684460.4711133803430.35154687398794162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024204-8235.633.02634.313136.95752296338002.742.74FF3.676.6111440.3776136554860.3130271347790.25215791366909162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024204-8239.16434.91637.04135.8584012264002.632.63FF7.16484.164111439.9372330726459.7691691252140.38515974251794162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024204-8242.29638.69640.496134.78045750846002.632.63FF10.29696.296111439.5041420169359.2365693379060.51524947866142163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024204-8242.27841.46841.873135.092248977002.682.68FF10.27898.278111439.6295340102759.3905424661570.51449295289871163111122.5DRYL