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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 20, 2024

[ Friday, April 19, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 21, 2024 ]

DAY 203 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/21/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.828
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 127

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 110
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.29 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-21 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024203-8352.0899825.7599438.92496116.571289166670.0899999999999180.0899999999999182.472.5599999999999FF20.08998127.08998110431.37447224304 50.2858783429620.827705950387316 4111123DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:02FORECAST2024203-8246.47223.52234.997119.811679248540.1917323870.1917323872.472.661732387FF14.472121.472111433.3658698629151.922292597280.65765473331842163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024203-8246.38224.99835.69119.641807928790.1681103270.1681103272.472.638110327FF14.382121.382111433.2948624853551.8401807140050.65447729032064163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:01FORECAST2024203-8244.90624.31434.61119.872097942440.1846457690.1846457692.472.654645769FF12.906119.906111433.3911179061451.9515025330290.60096244635261163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:03FORECAST2024203-8244.74425.77235.258120.046916577790.1429134630.1429134632.472.612913463FF12.744119.744111433.4641501047652.036034667090.59495037025328163112125DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024203-8344.27624.74634.511121.579753401380.1637796160.1637796162.472.633779616FF12.276115.276110433.4795086054952.7023317608070.57746071011941163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.2525.26834.259122.02077057130.1814961610.1814961612.472.651496161FF11.25115.25110433.6635866255252.9159650087590.5386268823303163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.5225.35834.439121.813207670880.2267717760.2267717762.472.696771776FF11.52115.52110433.576976755552.8154023108280.5488976448676163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.62825.01634.322121.698766525570.2153544470.2153544472.472.685354447FF11.628115.628110433.5292043125352.7599694176480.55299719158664163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.48424.8934.187122.001388775960.2578741550.2578741552.472.727874155FF11.484114.484110433.6555011072652.9065733854220.54752994741781163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024203-8343.28623.97233.629123.101868060160.3692915380.3692915382.472.839291538FF11.286114.286110434.11395914253.4402393213730.53999795876111163112125DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.28623.97233.629125.45988036190.3692915380.3692915382.472.839291538FF11.286109.286110435.0919994328354.5865901952630.53999795876111163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.41224.76434.088125.242782919680.3271655310.3271655312.472.797165531FF11.412109.412110435.0021978663254.4808858369570.54479287609379163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.71825.37634.547124.842903370380.23622060.23622062.472.7062206FF11.718109.718110434.8366594831454.2862710617520.5564091791893163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024203-8342.85425.64634.25125.281623028720.3807088670.3807088672.472.850708867FF10.854107.854110435.0182675733654.4997946087310.52351830459652163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024203-8343.32223.79233.557125.239301655790.35433090.35433092.472.8243309FF11.322109.322110435.0007574507554.4791910828730.54136855975416163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024203-8342.92624.56633.746125.025309061690.3787403620.3787403622.472.848740362FF10.926110.926110434.9121909351754.3750310863670.5262684765727163112125DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024203-8341.7226.83434.277125.784448120650.2468505270.2468505272.472.716850527FF9.72105.72110435.2261633814554.7446827686020.48014034056984162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:03FORECAST2024203-8341.55826.4233.989125.928022554810.2169292510.2169292512.472.686929251FF9.558103.558110435.2854763079854.8146392782930.47395069585986162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2024203-8341.88226.85234.367125.777497299640.1933071910.1933071912.472.663307191FF9.882103.882110435.2232913356254.7412963507050.48633477755419162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024203-8339.57826.16832.873126.230715676970.2960631520.2960631522.472.766063152FF7.578100.578110435.4104528949254.9621730821590.39925014232971162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024203-8341.75626.45634.106126.020312214990.3708663420.3708663422.472.840866342FF9.756103.756110435.3235912438254.8596148830950.48151652050406162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024203-8340.40626.92433.665126.292137793090.3405513650.3405513652.472.810551365FF8.406103.406110435.4358012651954.992118213430.4302033795954162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024203-8338.71424.67431.694125.007665792360.1401575560.1401575562.52.640157556FF6.71497.714110434.9048866514654.3664447219920.36761580477615162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024203-8340.49627.24833.872124.378178128060.0909449310.0909449312.52.590944931FF8.496101.496110434.6440655242454.060237004080.43359749519732162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024203-8341.43226.76234.097124.508495825140.1307087320.1307087322.52.630708732FF9.43299.432110434.6980954306454.1236060001220.46914079478087162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024203-8341.2726.16833.719124.548648324060.1342520410.1342520412.52.634252041FF9.27100.27110434.7147391112254.143133162850.46296334532607162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024203-8340.58626.16833.377124.383382012690.1015748580.1015748582.492.591574858FF8.58699.586110434.646223405254.0627672461790.43699651415366162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024203-8339.61426.97833.296125.043551537810.0972441470.0972441472.52.597244147FF7.61495.614110434.9197429452954.3839092917880.40058433218621162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024203-8339.97425.77232.873124.374202893640.0263779670.0263779672.492.516377967FF7.97497.974110434.6424171051754.0583041712220.41398758948028162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024203-8339.6526.04232.846124.614777887610.0555118410.0555118412.522.575511841FF7.6599.65110434.7421468893354.1752960729980.40191968265479162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024203-8338.8426.00632.423124.697234898670.0291338740.0291338742.512.539133874FF6.8494.84110434.7763152236854.2154043078250.37217926479749162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024203-8336.75225.0730.911125.280286792950.2452757230.2452757232.472.715275723FF4.75293.752110435.017714745554.4991440633280.29930504843164162112124DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024203-8334.59224.6229.606125.650184459610.2736221950.2736221952.462.733622195FF2.59291.592110435.1706773112554.6792758755720.23158290268284161112123DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024203-8334.84425.19630.02125.937534740030.2704725870.2704725872.462.730472587FF2.84494.844110435.2894051819754.8192745870720.23901847920978161112123DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024203-8334.2525.71829.984125.5607032002.462.46FF2.2588.25110435.1336875969354.635691800680.22170089244812161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024203-8337.79628.27433.035127.14144833305002.482.48FF5.79695.796110435.7858991983855.4064503872020.334965675652162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024203-8336.64426.79831.721127.39116377948002.492.49FF4.64491.644110435.8886918788455.5283677367590.29571609983762162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024203-8343.01630.32636.671125.9614472002.462.46FF11.016102.016110435.2992814671554.8309274587230.52970441649574163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024203-8342.04429.40835.726126.16594945023002.472.47FF10.04499.044110435.383720155654.9306004286060.49253251350499162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024203-8342.11627.73434.925126.39005777395002.492.49FF10.11698.116110435.4762038083155.0398625585140.49528773060651162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024203-8346.18428.68837.436127.97825412638002.472.47FF14.184109.184110436.1301046343355.8151693630590.64744877474417163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024203-8347.91230.75839.335130.0418008002.462.46FF15.912105.912110436.9757885237356.8251184456260.70685495722618164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024203-8348.1130.66839.389129.8932168002.462.46FF16.11105.11110436.9150437236956.7523004975830.71335616172352164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024203-8351.99833.0842.539128.3277712002.462.46FF19.998106.998110436.2736559090955.9860258960890.82544305700413164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024203-8347.24629.08438.165128.2946104002.462.46FF15.246111.246110436.2600418022255.9698120961030.68450188116148163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024203-8344.7830.52437.652128.27518268333002.462.46FF12.78106.78110436.2520652553355.9603133666090.5962883788266163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024203-8342.90831.87437.391128.3807104002.462.46FF10.90898.908110436.2953876261456.0119118076870.52558104579326163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024203-8343.44833.24238.345129.73307215168002.492.49FF11.44899.448110436.8495469704456.6738337965450.54616168579631163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024203-8342.94431.44237.193129.9062648002.462.46FF10.94495.944110436.9203789858256.7586944490490.52695582914019163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024203-8345.0533.02639.038129.01505391284002.482.48FF13.05101.05110436.5555605775556.3222391838630.6062865334745163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:04FORECAST2024203-8353.6933.13443.412130.00671204332002.612.61FF21.6996.69110436.9614454431156.8079208117570.86406305883337165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:06FORECAST2024203-8352.48431.74842.116130.3269690251002.612.61FF20.48494.484110437.0923081177556.9649157011710.83718714208701164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024203-8344.22229.5736.896136.68936830936002.822.82FF12.22270.222110439.6701541513160.0982356354240.57543211234351163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024203-8343.80831.29837.553137.38514491055002.932.93FF11.80866.808110439.9495424667960.4425316451290.55981699034143163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024203-8345.1431.15438.147137.05090456338002.932.93FF13.1472.14110439.8153902531860.2770970750950.60960409783689163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024203-8348.93830.8339.884136.0466404264002.822.82FF16.93875.938110439.411628399459.7804758080310.7397767988334164111123DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024203-8355.02232.70243.862135.15359030846002.822.82FF23.02285.022110439.051713678259.3394154346910.89003232455654165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024203-8355.02231.58643.304135.254215377002.872.87FF23.02287.022110439.0923081542859.3890856174820.89003232455654165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024203-8336.35630.95633.656143.28807993085002.92.9FF4.35656.356110442.3001000127263.3763320840450.28624351630674162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024203-8331.76629.35430.56143.29064558596002.812.81FF-0.23452.766110442.3011140172463.3776121709210.1574781471771161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024203-8331.17226.13228.652143.56293977066002.772.77FF-0.82843.172110442.4086932369763.5134925811950.14413864538792161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024203-8339.16435.07837.121141.61583607773002.722.72FF7.16475.164110441.6377839351162.5429040154880.38399515456438162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:05FORECAST2024203-8333.27829.82231.55143.62755811963002.752.75FF1.27834.278110442.4342120251763.5457455017560.19496587530506161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:06FORECAST2024203-8329.37229.24629.309144.78205882767002.812.81FF-2.62822.372110442.8894370609964.1224445307190.10845329492376161111121.5DRYL