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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 2, 2024

[ Monday, April 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 3, 2024 ]

DAY 185 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/03/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.978
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 198

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -101

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-03 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024185-10154.6099832.3499243.47995124.033544583330.00999999999999090.00999999999999092.982.99FF22.60998197.6099892422.93350669349 52.4579419582520.977971594705716 5111123.5DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:02FORECAST2024185-10050.12632.25241.189127.040841979640.0901575290.0901575292.983.070157529FF18.126193.12693424.9234643211353.9826346842610.93155391595408165112127DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:02FORECAST2024185-10048.59631.92840.262128.129004903160.0681102730.0681102732.983.048110273FF16.596191.59693425.4008999150254.5061939910220.90461162917768165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:02FORECAST2024185-10048.97433.11641.045127.94200320.0594488510.0594488512.983.039448851FF16.974191.97493425.3189460843854.4161579609480.91189848229204165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:03FORECAST2024185-10047.8431.78439.812128.597093012230.0751968910.0751968912.983.055196891FF15.84190.8493425.6058697770954.7316776222760.88872999953984165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2024185-10147.98431.74839.866129.40385360.1149606920.1149606922.983.094960692FF15.984185.98492425.303948141955.0359698408570.89189208522434165112127DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:01FORECAST2024185-10148.03831.4639.749131.185012564820.1311024330.1311024332.983.111102433FF16.038186.03892426.083033818155.8957081450850.89306108263217165112127DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:01FORECAST2024185-10148.93832.30640.622131.104384903830.1074803730.1074803732.983.087480373FF16.938186.93892426.0478430865355.8567404074620.91122285293425165112127DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:02FORECAST2024185-10148.9232.6340.775130.287432154730.1287402270.1287402272.983.108740227FF16.92186.9292425.6908693098755.4621702540960.91088359973014165112127DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024185-10148.84831.96440.406130.340843109750.1216536090.1216536092.983.101653609FF16.848187.84892425.7142302747155.4879516978230.90951696862473165112127DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2024185-10149.4632.32440.892130.269881353690.1216536090.1216536092.983.101653609FF17.46188.4692425.6831922219555.4536989450150.92064890384389165112127DRYL
2024-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2024185-10149.56834.37641.972133.72223680.1047244660.1047244662.983.084724466FF17.568188.56892427.1867564538457.1243686043440.92250122131454165112127DRYL
2024-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2024185-10149.87435.00642.44133.93281280.0799213030.0799213032.983.059921303FF17.874189.87492427.2780402439157.2265497775380.92757172191465165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2024185-10148.9233.63841.279134.061101408940.0598425520.0598425522.983.039842552FF16.92188.9292427.3336288753957.2888169561120.91088359973014165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2024185-10150.16234.84442.503133.39643440.0181102460.0181102462.982.998110246FF18.162191.16292427.0454262713256.9663371914220.9321087863454165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2024185-10150.32434.44842.386133.445340505380.015748040.015748042.982.99574804FF18.324192.32492427.0666487658956.9900543630560.93456295459677165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2024185-10151.27834.86243.07132.933684384930.0165354420.0165354422.982.996535442FF19.278192.27892426.8444882950356.7420104884560.94764995714241165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2024185-10151.45835.47443.466140.9701656002.982.98FF19.458193.45892430.3007905101660.6595736960280.94986930892533165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2024185-10151.54835.47443.511141.2266944002.982.98FF19.548190.54892430.4099597610660.7853758538920.95095059946313165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2024185-10151.31434.0742.692141.2754024002.982.98FF19.314191.31492430.4306800656960.8092675315860.94809993936555165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2024185-10151.31435.16843.241141.2312208002.982.98FF19.314190.31492430.4118853923760.7875960207940.94809993936555165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-30 08:00:03FORECAST2024185-10150.68436.57243.628141.1278024002.982.98FF18.684188.68492430.3678833771460.7368736045550.9397707362486165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-30 04:00:04FORECAST2024185-10150.41435.67243.043140.77005448333002.982.98FF18.414188.41492430.2155811557860.5614707988780.93589643484502165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-30 00:00:04FORECAST2024185-10152.23237.20244.717142.117725564070033FF20.232188.23292430.7885977966561.2226957177920.95857360711286165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2024185-10153.637.3145.455141.96111280033FF21.6187.692430.7221082552161.1457897954720.97094890016199165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2024185-10152.44836.03244.24142.02153040033FF20.448186.44892430.7477615237461.1754563079750.96077152085846165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2024185-10150.50435.40242.953142.469669378180.0149606380.01496063833.014960638FF18.504183.50492430.9379181588461.3955827226110.93720876422365165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-29 08:00:04FORECAST2024185-10151.04434.6142.827142.34414204254003.013.01FF19.044185.04492430.8846755759461.3339094641330.94464937639383165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-29 04:00:04FORECAST2024185-10149.96433.7141.837142.561656010050.0122047310.0122047313.043.052204731FF17.964183.96492430.97692363261.4407839350930.92901376238337165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2024185-10149.83834.73642.287141.19969754327003.383.38FF17.838180.83892430.3984742375460.7721343854270.92698868295924165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2024185-10149.69434.89842.296135.65139545805003.473.47FF17.694179.69492428.0212159789158.061675233190.92462068351715165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-28 16:00:04FORECAST2024185-10149.5533.83641.693136.03341671674003.493.49FF17.55175.5592428.1859751897758.2476011952530.92219479518525165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-28 12:00:04FORECAST2024185-10150.12636.71643.421138.67295162199003.483.48FF18.126178.12692429.3200033169959.535072050330.93155391595408165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-28 08:00:03FORECAST2024185-10151.15235.643.376138.91981735699003.523.52FF19.152180.15292429.4256764099159.6557365352650.94605066507306165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024185-10150.14434.77242.458138.36796348025003.483.48FF18.144181.14492429.1893588745659.3860575348660.93183178543171165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-28 00:00:04FORECAST2024185-10144.54629.98437.265139.706530285940.1712599350.1712599353.733.901259935TF12.546173.54692429.7619942328760.0405570630410.79802053465791164112126DRYL
2024-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2024185-10146.90433.20640.055131.587828591890.1425197620.1425197623.613.752519762TF14.904174.90492426.2587389105656.0904618715590.86656363904546165112127DRYL
2024-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024185-10146.52632.4539.488131.907609575760.1472441740.1472441743.683.827244174TF14.526176.52692426.3980968394156.245153681740.85680625697207165112127DRYL
2024-03-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024185-10141.79227.51834.655136.670718334240.1755906460.1755906463.733.905590646TF9.792170.79292428.4604768727758.5580011520310.69592226156484163112125DRYL
2024-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2024185-10144.5130.12837.319136.179962672410.1586615030.1586615033.653.808661503TF12.51170.5192428.2491355301158.3189512909820.79683334079931164112126DRYL
2024-03-27 04:00:06FORECAST2024185-10140.127.44633.773136.727407146580.1606300080.1606300083.593.750630008TF8.1165.192428.484872642758.5856256379690.62361707288692163112125DRYL
2024-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2024185-10145.8634.37640.118133.954557604040.1192914030.1192914033.433.549291403FF13.86166.8692427.2874637420157.2371031753140.83847131409569164112126DRYL
2024-03-26 20:00:04FORECAST2024185-10144.49228.92236.707131.74683459147003.273.27FF12.492168.49292426.3280465691356.1673706330480.79623818827659164111123DRYL
2024-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2024185-10146.25628.97637.616131.5795302827003.233.23FF14.256170.25692426.2551210685156.0864486107920.84954940939561165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024185-10143.46631.06437.265131.44679753232003.063.06FF11.466167.46692426.1972427544256.0222626771740.76063218898279164111123DRYL
2024-03-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024185-10144.29431.04637.67131.757124213730.1216536090.1216536093.083.201653609FF12.294168.29492426.3325306534356.1723481976560.78962332447873164112126DRYL
2024-03-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024185-10143.71830.79437.256132.4578420840.1244095160.1244095163.173.294409516FF11.718164.71892426.6376188663156.5114983468890.76967904936572164112126DRYL
2024-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024185-10145.96835.0640.514130.91565796599003.153.15FF13.968175.96892425.9654431846455.7655462652910.84154392831803164111123DRYL
2024-03-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024185-10153.0637.52645.293129.14682642973003.323.32FF21.06182.0692425.1912321906454.912098263170.96648937525833165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024185-10153.16838.2145.689128.22310740126003.213.21FF21.168187.16892424.785539135854.4673218071110.96742363625651165111123.5DRYL
2024-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2024185-10143.75432.50438.129130.18362532363003.093.09FF11.754167.75492425.645457053555.4120687017560.77095569273841164111123DRYL
2024-03-25 08:00:04FORECAST2024185-10144.88832.12638.507130.55607747871003.183.18FF12.888165.88892425.8083376988755.5918663276930.80909087421415164111123DRYL
2024-03-25 04:00:06FORECAST2024185-10140.58629.53435.06131.06843904423003.083.08FF8.586165.58692426.0321518415255.8393691245210.64497301859976163111122.5DRYL
2024-03-25 00:00:04FORECAST2024185-10141.19834.71837.958125.86433106263002.992.99FF9.198179.19892423.7452466324353.3344120083580.6712244602103163111122.5DRYL
2024-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024185-10143.17835.22239.2125.909182540510.1149606920.1149606923.093.204960692FF11.178187.17892423.7650856914453.3559155286180.75006001844999164112126DRYL
2024-03-24 16:00:04FORECAST2024185-10143.23233.00838.12127.41725353350.2149607460.2149607463.053.264960746FF11.232177.23292424.4308336488954.0798111384730.75206096480577164112126DRYL
2024-03-24 12:00:04FORECAST2024185-10140.58630.0235.303130.19801267580.1208662070.1208662073.423.540866207FF8.586157.58692425.6517517868855.4190121746260.64497301859976163112125DRYL
2024-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2024185-10140.2826.72633.503130.32825789576003.633.63FF8.28160.2892425.7087260200555.4818766332190.63157490935883163111122.5DRYL
2024-03-24 04:00:10FORECAST2024185-10141.03624.99833.017130.2728748556003.483.48FF9.036168.03692425.6845016665855.4551438135780.66435079979218163111122.5DRYL
2024-03-24 00:00:04FORECAST2024185-10129.49826.72628.112134.6855903653700.074.194.26TF-2.502147.49892427.6039671235557.5920927546110.17775714756935161111121.5WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:05FORECAST2024185-10131.125.84428.472131.26380999754003.993.99TF-0.9152.192426.11741876655.9337958935410.23065812569698161111121.5DRYL
2024-03-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024185-10130.7425.84428.292133.4479228551300.044.234.27TF-1.26145.7492427.0677692869356.9913067297130.21806105873026161111121.5WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:05FORECAST2024185-10123.55819.32821.443134.905429267580.110236280.420236283.634.05023628TF-8.442134.55892427.6990323193257.6989215523650.05269572073175161112123WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:05FORECAST2024185-10142.47637.97640.226129.92614147829003.663.66FF10.476170.47692425.5327641907255.2878301238890.72328871770354164111123DRYL
2024-03-23 04:00:05FORECAST2024185-10135.74434.84435.294134.86616388816004.194.19TF3.744140.74492427.6820566386557.6798383426540.42308853074168162111122WETL