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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 19, 2024

[ Thursday, April 18, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 20, 2024 ]

DAY 202 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.556
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 130

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.48 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 120 in
SWE DAY: 109
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -84

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-20 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024202-8442.7499628.7000635.72501120.26878833333002.482.48FF10.74996129.74996109432.30302586601 51.9925611137390.5564418085642216 3111122.5DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024202-8339.1123.37831.244121.7501624002.482.48FF7.11126.11110433.5506607831452.7848633589750.41573769586034162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:01FORECAST2024202-8340.20824.02632.117121.7232992002.482.48FF8.208127.208110433.5394464296752.7718517527610.4578726575933162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024202-8339.36225.19632.279121.7420936002.482.48FF7.362126.362110433.5472924496852.7809550574350.42534079194285162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:03FORECAST2024202-8339.18222.15430.668122.25280213333002.482.48FF7.182126.182110433.7603525078553.0284185484270.41847657171279162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:01FORECAST2024202-8439.18222.15430.668124.5446048002.482.48FF7.182121.182109434.0917730363354.0637883197410.41847657171279162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024202-8439.79422.29831.046124.733828002.482.48FF7.794120.794109434.1704847642354.1557465692580.44190364178305162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024202-8440.44222.7331.586124.6930904002.482.48FF8.442121.442109434.1535422210454.1359468876490.46693049035304162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024202-8439.1125.23232.171124.5644816002.482.48FF7.11120.11109434.1000430253154.0734468219860.41573769586034162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024202-8439.21823.41431.316124.5264992002.482.48FF7.218121.218109434.0842396136754.0549907169840.41984750177417162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024202-8439.72224.4432.081124.49420443333002.482.48FF7.722122.722109434.0708014674554.039299096430.43913529148868162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024202-8439.5624.54832.054125.3664024002.482.48FF7.56118.56109434.4333441281454.4633454359460.432917577571162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:03FORECAST2024202-8439.43424.65632.045125.4561432002.482.48FF7.434117.434109434.4706007381354.5070059023930.42809295129201162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:02FORECAST2024202-8440.11824.72832.423125.4521088002.482.48FF8.118117.118109434.4689260070454.5050429756550.45439443362598162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024202-8438.73225.0731.901125.47602002.482.48FF6.732115.732109434.4788516016954.5166770731510.40142861001354162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024202-8440.3725.19632.783125.344656002.482.48FF8.37117.37109434.424314658154.4527662788550.46414142004073162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024202-8439.41625.30432.36125.49068603333002.482.48FF7.416118.416109434.4849392079354.5238130923540.42740457803232162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024202-8439.14623.70231.424124.56198193958002.512.51FF7.146114.146109434.0990030335654.0722321758560.41710663103122162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024202-8440.1924.51232.351124.2774488002.512.51FF8.19116.19109433.9805789430353.9339991797860.45717674599932162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024202-8439.30824.58431.946124.3846064002.512.51FF7.308113.308109434.0251885096853.9860522404630.42327904927965162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024202-8439.41624.72832.072124.46405746601002.512.51FF7.416114.416109434.0582560452654.0246517240130.42740457803232162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024202-8438.9324.7131.82124.43449657981002.52.5FF6.93113.93109434.0459535832554.0102897266370.40890866463711162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024202-8438.58825.62832.108124.97112912357002.512.51FF6.588110.588109434.2691421513654.2711050381810.39601099631938162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024202-8438.04824.69231.37124.55441522063002.52.5FF6.048113.048109434.095854835654.0685553487450.37588112388052162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024202-8438.31824.94431.631124.65094451181002.532.53FF6.318115.318109434.1360121334154.1154639590210.38590766943436162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024202-8436.62624.67430.65124.78126316956002.522.52FF4.626110.626109434.1902105806554.1788029321090.32458598775506162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024202-8437.74224.5331.136124.51388337174002.482.48FF5.742111.742109434.0789901839654.0488607578890.3646184701839162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024202-8438.51624.20631.361124.4825144002.472.47FF6.516111.516109434.065936866554.0336192365340.39330963021989162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2024202-8438.78625.80832.297124.78597578333002.472.47FF6.786114.786109434.1921701814954.181093633580.40346517021785162111122DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024202-8436.6825.10630.893125.6172832002.472.47FF4.68108.68109434.5374779849454.5854174330480.32648157256575162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024202-8438.80426.29432.549127.38725153305002.492.49FF6.804112.804109435.2702616423755.4478823046930.40414460858754162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024202-8437.92224.65631.289127.56237977948002.52.5FF5.922109.922109435.3425874496655.5333364744340.37123012376285162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024202-8440.51426.61833.566126.5020568002.472.47FF8.514113.514109434.9041944357355.0162751070670.46972118532903162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024202-8439.52425.32232.423126.56742145023002.482.48FF7.524111.524109434.9312537654955.0481272972140.431538059628162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024202-8439.23625.41232.324126.80156657395002.52.5FF7.236111.236109435.0281471266255.162250559420.42053333277145162111122DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024202-8441.10828.38234.745128.70326532638002.482.48FF9.108118.108109435.8129724504856.0905526259740.49278856290596162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024202-8441.48629.17435.33130.9559368002.472.47FF9.486113.486109436.7377514448657.1934013763870.50748525758552163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024202-8441.01828.83234.925130.907032002.472.47FF9.018112.018109436.717730918357.1694219762890.48929004578266162111122DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024202-8443.23230.00236.617129.7474864002.472.47FF11.232110.232109436.2423097409356.6013431502160.57492824807465163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024202-8447.73229.6638.696129.244072002.472.47FF15.732118.732109436.035470273956.3549997146340.73484699043645164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024202-8444.56428.74236.653129.04299788333002.472.47FF12.564116.564109435.9527803706356.2566537146010.62504475944521163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024202-8447.98427.15837.571129.1293376002.472.47FF15.984110.984109435.9882919683256.2988793432250.74283274985205164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024202-8446.430.86638.633130.4994113516800.032.472.5FF14.4111.4109436.5507633963756.9696176483530.69065420779675163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024202-8446.47229.3937.931130.5542288002.472.47FF14.472108.472109436.5732275061656.9964810317930.6931234192743163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024202-8449.26229.5739.416129.87241311284002.492.49FF17.262111.262109436.2935978274756.6625023755360.78132907875779164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:04FORECAST2024202-8444.13229.44436.788131.11262964332002.622.62FF12.13298.132109436.8018812284457.2702432810120.60897664856497163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:06FORECAST2024202-8443.728.59836.149131.2844010251002.622.62FF11.796.7109436.872152895657.3544989174440.5927203595211163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024202-8439.68626.99633.341137.15568590936002.832.83FF7.68680.686109439.2557538496960.2464242088890.4377522231064162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024202-8441.07227.60834.34138.1198977105500.082.862.94FF9.07278.072109439.6438137593460.7235585855150.49138907441087162111122DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024202-8441.9927.35634.673137.8899613633800.082.862.94FF9.9981.99109439.5513590860160.6097199215910.52706161228899163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024202-8443.17826.52834.853137.076888426400.052.782.83FF11.17882.178109439.2239987230760.2074590671590.57286472539361163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024202-8446.45427.9537.202136.75878950846002.832.83FF14.45485.454109439.0957412685360.0502020542060.69250693063511163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024202-8445.8626.6936.275136.826647377002.882.88FF13.8686.86109439.1231102508460.0837429613820.67186644311532163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024202-8442.83627.33835.087143.3240943308500.162.752.91FF10.83674.836109441.7219828208563.3094031338250.55975170022774163112125DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024202-8442.81830.79436.806143.2906455859600.052.772.82FF10.81875.818109441.708713402263.2927267043450.55905959161663163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024202-8440.1928.77834.484143.5629397706600.042.742.78FF8.1967.19109441.8167022006663.4285046077050.45717674599932162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024202-8451.38633.22442.305141.82700247773002.732.73FF19.38691.386109441.1269676251262.5637155303630.83739386142165164111123DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024202-8441.84624.5333.188143.6345445196300.022.742.76FF9.84655.846109441.8450874348963.4642178819460.52147296257768163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:06FORECAST2024202-8439.75823.88231.82144.7820588276700.082.742.82FF7.75847.758109442.2992763265964.0369998445530.44051910326124162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024202-8433.27825.21429.246143.68020485995002.892.89FF1.27859.278109441.8631852072663.4869929706490.21732253516749161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024202-8429.71427.08628.4139.5493899566500.042.842.88FF-2.28661.714109440.2173858522661.4320676439910.12947851381446161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024202-8430.59627.12228.859139.3916965951800.062.782.84FF-1.40460.596109440.1542148280761.3538427684020.14851794428724161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024202-8427.30223.30625.304141.198050933400.12.732.83FF-4.69859.302109440.8763167587362.250876629030.086234291361405161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024202-8434.23228.8531.541140.40490575268002.832.83FF2.23272.232109440.5596597518461.8567375058880.24564314456221161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-09 04:00:06FORECAST2024202-8429.89429.64229.768139.69015283753002.842.84FF-2.10672.894109440.2737532568661.5019078828030.13322030686658161111121.5DRYL