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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 15, 2024

[ Sunday, April 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 16, 2024 ]

DAY 198 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/16/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.191
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 142

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 105
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-16 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024198-8832.5200223.1900827.85505125.421337083330.0100000000001050.0100000000001052.492.5000000000001FF0.52002141.52002105431.95282815297 54.1761012638730.1905443850891316 1111121.5DRYL
2024-04-16 00:00:01FORECAST2024198-8732.84621.90227.374124.9922264002.492.49FF0.846141.846106432.4019459143854.0468819195310.20112944744879161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 12:00:01FORECAST2024198-8734.1621.70427.932124.9525712002.492.49FF2.16143.16106432.3852754144154.0276519120510.24722767209444161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024198-8733.27822.04627.662124.980812002.492.49FF1.278142.278106432.3971476299254.0413466172710.21568672855377161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 04:00:03FORECAST2024198-8732.55821.63227.095125.44535418333002.492.49FF0.558141.558106432.5923154276354.2666962258070.19175979031486161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024198-8832.32421.66826.996126.1143016002.492.49FF0.324140.324105432.2446598212154.5122333936810.18434684361326161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 20:00:01FORECAST2024198-8832.32422.08227.203127.9982288002.492.49FF0.324139.324105433.0354560700155.4277713845610.18434684361326161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024198-8832.79222.60427.698127.9908488002.492.49FF0.792139.792105433.0323656221955.4241800338560.19935206948518161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024198-8832.32421.36226.843127.1927264002.492.49FF0.324139.324105432.6978018556155.0360131253020.18434684361326161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024198-8832.48620.94826.717127.1550392002.492.49FF0.486139.486105432.6819870376455.0176950229050.18945972092646161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024198-8832.07220.67826.375127.32597993333002.492.49FF0.072000000000003139.072105432.7537073866855.1007898627920.1765656104066161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024198-8833.63822.78428.211129.6470592002.492.49FF1.638137.638105433.724469784856.2311020106780.22827049512517161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024198-8831.92821.50626.717132.0059632002.492.49FF-0.071999999999999132.928105434.705205514757.3836793620220.17221365242766161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024198-8831.94622.20827.077131.9612896002.492.49FF-0.053999999999998132.946105434.6866865966557.3618157352460.17275388194114161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024198-8832.39623.01827.707130.9392088002.492.49FF0.396131.396105434.262420446856.8619777448770.18660857102134161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024198-8831.29822.58626.942130.9111648002.492.49FF-0.702130.298105434.2507638388556.8482733094340.15398511311787161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2024198-8832.0923.32427.707130.39786748333002.492.49FF0.090000000000003132.09105434.0372628774356.5975334875190.17711444251992161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024198-8832.1823.28827.734130.4385496002.492.49FF0.18124.18105434.0541943614256.61739956030.17987470403837161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024198-883222.62227.311132.0346568002.492.49FF0123105434.7170990025257.3977229718890.1743810274995161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024198-8831.83822.17227.005131.9499344002.492.49FF-0.162121.838105434.6819790964357.3562586266370.16952865904135161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024198-8830.57821.1125.844131.403154921790.0125984320.0125984322.492.502598432FF-1.422123.578105434.4551411830657.0887762234440.13477006769918161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024198-8828.8521.41625.133131.830323348850.0771653960.0771653962.492.567165396FF-3.15119.85105434.6323839582457.2977277150980.095548746187966161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024198-8828.70620.40824.557131.898171416130.0771653960.0771653962.492.567165396FF-3.294118.706105434.6605181101157.3309275255110.09270477532415161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024198-8827.96819.86823.918136.654290429360.2055119220.2055119222.482.685511922FF-4.032111.968105436.6206758521759.6660886453640.079103008731791161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024198-8827.26619.32823.297137.375920731420.2342520950.2342520952.492.724252095FF-4.734108.266105436.9160205751660.0217406088220.06761692521889161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024198-8827.35619.50823.432137.246095650950.2251969720.2251969722.492.715196972FF-4.644107.356105436.8629264360659.9577309879960.069013342368375161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024198-8825.73618.9522.343137.192130488350.2287402810.2287402812.492.718740281FF-6.264104.736105436.8408513278459.931127078010.047062710245915161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024198-8825.21419.47222.343137.80378147340.3090552850.3090552852.522.829055285FF-6.786103.214105437.0908775048460.2327757676930.041320556655727161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024198-8826.0620.15623.108137.776427173370.338582860.338582862.542.87858286FF-5.94105.06105437.0797041113960.219280022460.05093638559058161112123DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024198-8826.09618.21222.154143.221898763780.1956693970.1956693972.482.675669397FF-5.90495.096105439.2887770744962.9157727582240.051381974751361161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024198-8827.30218.91423.108143.681230000810.2094489320.2094489322.482.689448932FF-4.69896.302105439.4737210929463.1441247996660.068172858573756161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024198-8826.81619.25623.036143.466933644060.1192914030.1192914032.542.659291403FF-5.18494.816105439.3874641767763.0375721670780.060958893031728161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024198-8830.97423.5427.257142.874223600480.11811030.11811032.522.6381103FF-1.026100.974105439.1486464448862.7430219060120.14512529426547161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024198-8828.45422.22625.34143.794829888060.1925197890.1925197892.542.732519789FF-3.54690.454105439.5194274053463.2006212962470.087878790727394161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024198-8827.57220.6624.116144.440664067610.1708662340.1708662342.562.730866234FF-4.42886.572105439.7790248942163.5219743987250.072455042296359161112123DRYL
2024-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024198-8825.8818.60822.244143.717895548370.2318898890.2318898892.652.881889889FF-6.1293.88105439.4884747230463.1623587049580.048754247110012161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024198-8826.34819.9423.144139.806422897160.2066930250.2066930252.652.856693025FF-5.65295.348105437.9067898366461.2221818494420.05458820388121161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024198-8826.6920.55223.621139.317115245890.1944882940.1944882942.612.804488294FF-5.3197.69105437.7078200275160.9801908067990.059189294163046161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024198-8830.93820.55225.745140.020237776170.11811030.11811032.542.6581103FF-1.062103.938105437.9936569255361.3279759871650.14416242481361161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024198-8828.65220.49824.575140.20271451290.149606380.209606382.522.72960638FF-3.34899.652105438.0677548890161.4182883760090.091654532429723161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024198-8830.21821.12825.673139.47831107030.1007874560.2707874562.472.740787456FF-1.782105.218105437.7733952708261.0598938038840.1258052165536161112123DRYL
2024-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024198-8830.54219.86825.205143.398869296190.0712598810.2912598812.252.541259881FF-1.458108.542105439.3600576147263.003735475860.13385440340945161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024198-8833.5320.8427.185140.0074201891600.192.332.52FF1.53112.53105437.9884508225861.3216330723170.22445272648476161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024198-8832.1822.13627.158139.0069667832700.22.262.46FF0.18120.18105437.5815745772160.8268874022260.17987470403837161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024198-8829.13822.31625.727142.315537158190.1566929980.7166929982.232.946692998FF-2.862111.138105438.9232082656862.4655921555290.10142768304715161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024198-8827.5919.59823.594144.748772115610.3409450660.5709450662.282.850945066FF-4.4197.59105439.9027210821963.6753787269630.072747662530275161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024198-8827.6819.1323.405144.893407055930.4161419570.5961419572.182.776141957FF-4.3291.68105439.9607543162263.7474126637730.074224306883883161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024198-8830.84820.76825.808142.386520537670.03937010.24937012.412.6593701FF-1.15284.848105438.9518688451262.5008292883640.14177407848674161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 20:00:04FORECAST2024198-8829.42620.33624.881144.720458602840.307086780.747086782.162.90708678FF-2.57479.426105439.8913580903463.6612790782590.10756491333906161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024198-8828.27419.95824.116146.551359051680.2901576370.7701576372.333.100157637FF-3.72668.274105440.6244692642764.5741148021040.084547747051151161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024198-8833.15221.45227.302142.5627528925100.312.112.42FF1.15268.152105439.0230029038362.5883278771080.21137909099584161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024198-8835.16817.626.384142.891700060800.332.132.46FF3.16864.168105439.1556932942762.7517036061980.28608827978112162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2024198-8835.97817.90626.942143.052910763900.32.352.65FF3.97867.978105439.2206818422662.8317970052420.31927756594243162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024198-8834.32220.33627.329142.9466369194100.511.982.49FF2.32267.322105439.1778428692462.778995647680.25327736483786162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024198-8836.21221.88429.048142.4396453451100.572.22.77FF4.21268.212105438.9733153838362.5272033592380.32915815571952162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024198-8836.03221.45228.742142.3796737199400.62.212.81FF4.03272.032105438.9491045673362.4974302879570.32154667440378162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024198-8840.38824.38632.387142.7125697442500.512.63.11FF8.38882.388105439.0834496289162.6627274287130.51921146509546163113127.5DRYL
2024-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024198-8845.73428.07636.905139.37549846040.2354331980.2354331982.532.765433198FF13.73495.734105437.731573703661.0090562767920.75048273833547164112126DRYL
2024-04-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024198-8845.75228.20236.977137.860519644520.2354331980.2354331982.212.445433198FF13.75299.752105437.1140508343960.2607701919520.75115341902561164112126DRYL
2024-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024198-8841.1829.17435.177129.98781011219001.421.42FF9.18103.18105433.8665034330256.3973566622910.55613751433179163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024198-8837.99431.71234.853129.81715796459001.541.54FF5.994115.994105433.7953866432156.3140842321720.40789392082262162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:04FORECAST2024198-8838.01232.37835.195129.91400139973001.561.56FF6.012114.012105433.8357485132356.3613380396030.40871484739925162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024198-8834.3430.77632.558129.38030118773001.431.43FF2.34114.34105433.6131924394456.1010054367860.25395431799801162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024198-8830.25425.05227.653127.2059059571000.960.96FF-1.746107.254105432.7033320842255.0424193684280.12668257272049161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024198-8830.41627.53628.976127.68268648795000.960.96FF-1.584107.416105432.9032678861755.2742522331190.13068320025139161111121.5DRYL