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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 14, 2024

[ Saturday, April 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, April 15, 2024 ]

DAY 197 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/15/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.810
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 140

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 104
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-15 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024197-8949.4700833.1500241.31005125.45086458333002.862.86FF17.47008140.47008104431.33352217162 54.1111632802040.8104407489261316 4111123DRYL
2024-04-15 00:00:01FORECAST2024197-8848.0230.8339.425126.11686002.862.86FF16.02139.02105432.2457363017754.5134750107670.76932076047302164111123DRYL
2024-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024197-8846.90430.88438.894127.1944976002.862.86FF14.904137.904105432.6985450735155.0368740528770.73455394734826164111123DRYL
2024-04-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024197-8847.15630.59638.876127.1583848002.862.86FF15.156138.156105432.6833910252755.019321132560.74263004259847164111123DRYL
2024-04-14 04:00:03FORECAST2024197-8846.90430.68638.795127.32637353333002.862.86FF14.904137.904105432.7538724906155.1009812167360.73455394734826164111123DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024197-8948.90232.05440.478129.6701832002.862.86FF16.902134.902104433.1090951912456.1613357190340.79489714116688164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024197-8948.52430.54239.533132.0059632002.862.86FF16.524131.524104434.0838855353557.3016614196920.78414795132204164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024197-8948.84830.75839.803131.9612896002.862.86FF16.848131.848104434.0652961115457.2798162454850.7933812740827164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024197-8947.08430.88438.984130.9413736002.862.86FF15.084130.084104433.6403178826956.78145887190.74033566688768164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024197-8946.45430.05638.255130.9111648002.862.86FF14.454130.454104433.6277136959156.7667090894920.71981982519572164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2024197-8946.81430.95638.885130.39845788333002.862.86FF14.814130.814104433.4136465539556.5164711362270.73163881938216164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024197-8945.24830.77638.012130.4402224002.862.86FF13.248123.248104433.4310946488156.5368483810670.6784916756723163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024197-8945.51829.55237.535132.0346568002.862.86FF13.518121.518104434.095824304457.3156931803450.68796359827468163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024197-8945.48229.53437.508131.9499344002.862.86FF13.482121.482104434.0605706887957.2742638280120.68670764689424163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024197-8945.529.15637.328131.3513672002.862.86FF13.5123.5104433.8112862081756.9817055502340.68733589426389163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024197-8944.56429.0336.797131.4323504002.862.86FF12.564121.564104433.8450353469857.0212727050250.65398309610896163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024197-8944.56428.7636.662131.4844327002.862.86FF12.564120.564104433.8667365856457.0467217273640.65398309610896163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024197-8943.28626.25834.772135.5061504002.852.85FF11.286115.286104435.5338337705459.0175131831990.60649245013646163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024197-8942.00825.10633.557136.0421352002.862.86FF10.008112.008104435.7547288976759.2810037427360.55736114857712163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024197-8941.48624.7133.098135.9859488002.862.86FF9.486111.486104435.7315869343659.2533732713990.5369908530571163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024197-8940.89223.88232.387135.93729577132002.862.86FF8.892109.892104435.7115451355159.2294491820640.5136952903259163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024197-8940.6423.73832.189136.07091643826002.892.89FF8.64108.64104435.7665819882859.2951581643130.50379354545384163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024197-8941.0924.94433.017135.89750199147002.912.91FF9.09110.09104435.6951509141559.2098826390280.52146961937337163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024197-8939.12823.88231.505142.0616184002.852.85FF7.128100.128104438.2149909651962.2535308236560.44454711079179162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024197-8938.76825.14231.955142.491528002.852.85FF6.76899.768104438.3892670963262.4667565273540.43057241818629162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024197-8937.61623.50430.56142.79929265679002.912.91FF5.61698.616104438.5139114568962.6194763762080.38651631258364162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024197-8941.77429.26435.519142.25397922081002.892.89FF9.774100.774104438.2929934418662.3489223817050.54824510833577163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024197-8940.58627.55434.07142.73691720432002.912.91FF8.58692.586104438.4886573367462.588519177310.50167123086298163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024197-8938.40826.02432.216143.42904783497002.932.93FF6.40890.408104438.76865816462.9321708602890.41668413290891162111122DRYL
2024-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024197-8940.85625.35833.107142.13508067892003.023.02FF8.85698.856104438.2447844801262.2899577991980.51228112973966163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024197-8941.25226.4233.836138.4451607641900.013.013.02FF9.252100.252104436.7413983230260.4647331032080.52782449698459163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024197-8941.82827.51834.673138.05742482137002.982.98FF9.828101.828104436.5826032060160.273469920430.5503512480656163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024197-8939.0224.72831.874139.37726349664002.912.91FF7.02104.02104437.1224965994960.9249373888560.44034664398611162111122DRYL
2024-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024197-8936.66224.74630.704139.3680086406700.062.892.95FF4.662101.662104437.1187171045760.9203651424260.35108311156438162111122DRYL
2024-04-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024197-8937.6725.55631.613138.950705630070.0385826980.1685826982.843.008582698FF5.67105.67104436.9482066902760.7142616434050.38855378595736162112124DRYL
2024-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024197-8939.77623.84631.811142.880673300090.1173228980.2173228982.622.837322898FF7.776108.776104438.5468542457662.6598698082690.46986444915753162112124DRYL
2024-04-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024197-8939.45225.14232.297140.020212189160.1303150310.1903150312.72.890315031FF7.452110.452104437.3848464022261.2427190015630.45718405826107162112124DRYL
2024-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024197-8939.66825.75432.711139.007950783270.1291339280.1991339282.632.829133928FF7.668118.668104436.971607812560.7425277524880.4656336133173162112124DRYL
2024-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024197-8935.13226.02430.578141.272543844810.1433071640.5633071642.63.163307164FF3.132113.132104437.8946214434461.8624871072760.29696930420573162113126DRYL
2024-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024197-8933.42223.928.661142.541289340430.0779527980.2279527982.652.877952798FF1.422101.422104438.4094269906762.4914449822470.24145635346779161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024197-8932.64823.5428.094142.142526496850.0480315220.1780315222.552.728031522FF0.64894.648104438.2478039112862.2936500796450.21831457610264161112123DRYL
2024-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024197-8932.19822.6427.419142.068881004030.0940945390.2840945392.712.994094539FF0.19885.198104438.2179366496562.2571318957120.20546840480887161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024197-8929.17420.31824.746142.371088821540.1665355230.4765355232.492.966535523FF-2.82681.174104438.3404628239762.4070089667870.13127728691042161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024197-8928.68819.97624.332144.246414273170.2397639090.5797639092.63.179763909FF-3.31270.688104439.0986897443363.3384115076660.12134076825122161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024197-8931.22620.0325.628142.580661692510.0767716950.3467716952.442.786771695FF-0.77466.226104438.425376171462.5109802373070.1792963585152161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024197-8929.24619.14824.197142.96176086080.0366141930.4266141932.42.826614193FF-2.75460.246104438.579671623162.700122132990.13279569759949161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2024197-8929.44420.22824.836143.15445956390.0366141930.3866141932.633.016614193FF-2.55663.444104438.6576326268262.7957963322730.13703333394454161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024197-8930.1121.30825.709142.994852919410.0409449040.7009449042.162.860944904FF-1.8964.11104438.5930625439362.7165504699440.15195805548529161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024197-8930.23622.29826.267142.582620545110.0948819410.8848819412.263.144881941FF-1.76463.236104438.4261696331162.5119521818430.15489844148564161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024197-8929.71421.8325.772142.518811319940.0960630440.9060630442.273.176063044FF-2.28666.714104438.400320748562.4802925953580.14295897197052161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024197-8932.3620.26426.312143.0254817442500.942.543.48TF0.3673.36104438.6054556979262.7317565968530.21004057473114161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024197-8938.4824.8931.685139.35893832600.192.712.9FF6.4881.48104437.1150128863560.9158841221980.41945406543867162112124DRYL
2024-04-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024197-8938.37225.14231.757137.8168868867900.132.452.58FF6.37285.372104436.4840135898860.1548679288110.41530070702096162112124DRYL
2024-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024197-8941.82827.2334.529130.0817821121900.031.761.79FF9.82892.828104433.2812876684656.3620020557770.5503512480656163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024197-8949.6429.33639.488129.9040451645900.321.591.91FF17.64108.64104433.2069534688556.2753356490320.81494574146148164112126DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:04FORECAST2024197-8948.86628.97638.921130.0174197997300.31.631.93FF16.866106.866104433.2543735564256.3306157667560.79388729735123164112126DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024197-8952.05227.78839.92129.4133635877300.391.411.8FF20.052111.052104433.0015634202556.0361887609590.87162106869892165112127DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024197-8948.21827.78838.003127.205905957100.061.271.33FF16.218108.218104432.0743905139854.9624142861920.77521241188276164111123DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024197-8945.6828.3136.995127.6826864879500.061.271.33FF13.68107.68104432.2750875173455.1940444760290.69358823759019163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:05FORECAST2024197-8932.01826.63629.327129.03690735935001.241.24FF0.01800000000000188.018104432.8438123210755.8528269115430.20045802748833161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:05FORECAST2024197-8930.27227.28428.778126.84553710307001.271.27FF-1.72896.272104431.9225347274454.7874459044210.15574539026373161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024197-8931.29827.3229.309126.98311212153001.381.38FF-0.702103.298104431.9805238512154.8542312945170.18116013525896161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024197-8930.7425.93428.337128.0998580591300.191.31.49FF-1.26100.74104432.4504933421655.3968468147310.16703235227282161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:05FORECAST2024197-8930.90228.4929.696128.0929554648100.221.321.54FF-1.098105.902104432.4475925584355.3934902144530.17105899265518161112123DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:07FORECAST2024197-8930.9229.89430.407127.3268521535600.221.321.54FF-1.08113.92104432.1253248709155.0211573516480.17151018922066161112123DRYL