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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 13, 2024

[ Friday, April 12, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 14, 2024 ]

DAY 196 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/14/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.915
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 128 in
SWE DAY: 103
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.36 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024196-9056.8440.0200848.43004128.1821583333300.013.853.86TF24.84122.84103431.85530321627 55.3561448539580.9146174750615516 5111123.5DRYL
2024-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024196-8951.90833.54842.728130.732214400.013.853.86TF19.908117.908104433.553029381956.6793475909240.8208397837796164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 12:00:01FORECAST2024196-8949.08232.93641.009131.872237600.013.853.86TF17.082115.082104434.0282338076557.2362743737910.74546318177573164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024196-8949.51433.87241.693131.7995200.013.853.86TF17.514115.514104433.997963453957.2007232642020.75796097130059164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2024196-8950.34234.62842.485131.3244018833300.013.853.86TF18.342116.342104433.800047074856.9685317190590.78095702734263164111123DRYL
2024-04-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024196-9050.79233.54842.17131.233916800.013.853.86TF18.792109.792103433.1374175688856.8423198202010.79290952402091164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 20:00:02FORECAST2024196-9050.30633.45841.882132.801783200.013.853.86TF18.306108.306103433.7922601084157.6083856807540.77998402032827164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 16:00:01FORECAST2024196-9050.46833.8942.179132.768917600.013.853.86TF18.468108.468103433.7785600482757.5923098956950.78434303649521164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024196-9051.51234.23242.872132.16385600.013.853.86TF19.512109.512103433.5261350315757.2964856825490.81121165024596164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024196-9051.18834.46642.827132.186684800.013.853.86TF19.188109.188103433.5356659987957.307642430940.80310206933711164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024196-9051.20634.23242.719132.209640700.013.853.86TF19.206108.206103433.5452494726757.3188616599740.80355804895013164111123DRYL
2024-04-12 00:00:01FORECAST2024196-9049.60433.9841.792136.1089488003.853.85TF17.604103.604103435.1650242282159.2298540022280.7605222094575164111123DRYL
2024-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024196-9049.5532.16240.856136.525574400.013.853.86TF17.55101.55103435.3371440156559.4346536443920.75898724267986164111123DRYL
2024-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024196-9050.01832.93641.477136.434259200.013.853.86TF18.018102.018103435.2994347150159.3897559055210.7721113936077164111123DRYL
2024-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024196-9049.08233.33241.207136.3273533713200.013.853.86TF17.082101.082103435.2552760314759.3371998222730.74546318177573164111123DRYL
2024-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024196-9048.97433.1741.072136.4562508382600.043.853.89TF16.97499.974103435.3085171274859.4005682051790.74228680905358164111123DRYL
2024-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024196-9048.7432.82840.784136.2685683914700.063.853.91TF16.74100.74103435.230989108659.308303805430.73533483727265164111123DRYL
2024-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024196-9047.0330.63238.831142.3132272003.853.85TF15.0393.03103437.7094418631562.2918432474550.68181412091515163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024196-9046.9430.6538.795142.7302464003.853.85TF14.9492.94103437.8790304782662.4985819135550.67887468427078163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024196-9046.63429.76838.201142.9669662567900.063.853.91TF14.63492.634103437.9752171164862.6159880868040.66879745274928163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024196-9044.16829.33636.752142.6950080208100.043.853.89TF12.16891.168103437.8647070830762.4811078892470.58366605220028163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024196-9042.42228.88635.654143.0821044043200.063.853.91TF10.42284.422103438.0219804240162.6731067344170.52063777210992163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024196-9042.2627.9535.105143.6399190349700.083.853.93TF10.2684.26103438.2483430633162.9499565148230.51473870670727163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024196-9046.43629.4837.958142.4491734789200.153.874.02TF14.43690.436103437.7647466822862.3592263430990.66221058585235163112125WETL
2024-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024196-9047.17431.85639.515138.8120943641900.113.914.02TF15.17491.174103436.2785338538460.560737010390.6864934506586163112125WETL
2024-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024196-9046.56232.88239.722138.5110488213700.073.913.98TF14.56291.562103436.1549018199960.4122728996660.66640812861994163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024196-9049.38831.33440.361139.62562509664003.913.91TF17.38897.388103436.6121584750260.9622455518680.75435046131625164111123DRYL
2024-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024196-9047.33631.8239.578139.513739040670.0610236550.0610236553.893.951023655TF15.33697.336103436.5663154756760.9069990112170.69172204878945163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024196-9047.69632.0939.893139.070075766590.1334646390.1334646393.843.973464639TF15.69699.696103436.3844053072460.6880123094340.70320181578183164112126DRYL
2024-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024196-9050.05433.42241.738142.791168136610.0952756420.0952756423.623.715275642TF18.054101.054103437.9037904011362.5287937628250.77310404127303164112126DRYL
2024-04-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024196-9050.95435.16843.061140.326913313230.0574803460.0574803463.73.757480346TF18.954102.954103436.8992002767161.3087162038510.79711632657397164111123DRYL
2024-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024196-9052.14237.45444.798139.462361983270.0661417680.0661417683.633.696141768FF20.142111.142103436.5452604229660.8816331311890.82638159201604164111123DRYL
2024-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024196-9049.20836.15842.683140.77027556710.4181104620.4181104623.64.018110462TF17.208110.208103437.0804076857961.5279294349090.74914289931504164112126WETL
2024-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024196-9043.0731.42437.247142.196053743250.1527559880.2027559883.63.802755988TF11.07100.07103437.6617587609162.233774970130.54417601592702163112125DRYL
2024-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024196-9042.81831.33437.076141.904550761240.1295276290.1795276293.53.679527629TF10.81893.818103437.5430716174262.0893530165630.535036086197163112125DRYL
2024-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024196-9040.40626.58233.494141.490831019640.1212599080.4612599083.443.901259908TF8.40685.406103437.3744722662761.8844775477290.44731753775643162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024196-9038.82224.22431.523141.288857708020.2657481750.3757481753.423.795748175TF6.82283.822103437.2920995829961.7845012348250.39082589317853162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024196-9034.14223.95429.048142.630897254560.240157610.520157613.423.94015761TF2.14274.142103437.8386445985562.4493187318110.24046890813361161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024196-9030.77621.21825.997142.149716901590.2287402810.2687402813.443.708740281TF-1.22466.776103437.6428983186562.2108140999860.15565507646055161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024196-9029.87619.41824.647142.680705009720.2897639360.3897639363.43.789763936TF-2.12462.876103437.8588929515762.4740155411040.13680625126115161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2024196-9030.97420.78625.88142.870564668140.2606300620.4106300623.573.980630062TF-1.02665.974103437.9360531338762.5681711997720.1600208140947161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024196-9032.30622.2827.293142.662861999160.4692915920.6692915923.153.819291592TF0.30666.306103437.8516395246962.4651680256150.19144074114762161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024196-9032.12622.60427.365141.848046969970.4759845090.9359845093.114.045984509TF0.12665.126103437.5200555988462.0613653968860.18698721675426161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024196-9033.38622.24427.815141.766874593850.4968506620.9568506623.124.076850662TF1.38669.386103437.4869854000262.0211625956470.21949913717932161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024196-9030.4722.06426.267143.027744944250.5051183831.2851183833.194.475118383TF-1.5373.47103437.999904057662.6461385631570.14906356879071161114126WETL
2024-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024196-9036.7720.82228.796139.61202312600.643.263.9TF4.7774.77103436.6065860442460.9555287877730.32108895752897162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024196-9036.8622.94629.903138.0654452867900.423.163.58TF4.8678.86103435.9717297433360.1926309994660.32403949834026162112124DRYL
2024-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024196-9039.81224.2632.036130.5071653121900.032.762.79FF7.81282.812103432.8329933917356.4878070211440.42594261909075162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024196-9042.27826.9634.619130.6206923645900.322.592.91FF10.27891.278103432.8805850392756.5431617290190.5153943414036163112125DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:04FORECAST2024196-9040.4626.81633.638130.6400949997300.312.622.93FF8.4690.46103432.8887174400956.5526231706860.44926928881359162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024196-9038.78625.03431.91129.9386227877300.392.412.8FF6.78690.786103432.594448255856.2107268319760.38956370536984162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024196-9039.70425.23232.468127.785678757100.072.262.33FF7.70491.704103431.6880023287755.1635443888770.42207764655117162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024196-9040.56825.2532.909128.2432712879500.062.272.33FF8.56893.568103431.8810758202555.3858419705490.45317642859973162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:04FORECAST2024196-9039.25424.27831.766129.03700575935002.242.24FF7.25488.254103432.2154470018255.7717871240560.4060582812859162111122DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:04FORECAST2024196-9041.0924.78232.936126.84553710307002.272.27FF9.0998.09103431.2906204827554.707290402650.47211812148146162111122DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024196-9041.8126.70834.259126.98311212153002.382.38FF9.81103.81103431.348830384454.7740168921940.49833949791269162111122DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024196-9041.88225.21433.548128.0998580591300.222.272.49FF9.882101.882103431.8205891568955.3161561780080.50096390305701163112125DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:05FORECAST2024196-9038.37230.43434.403128.092955464810.2157481480.2157481482.322.535748148FF6.372107.372103431.8176773292255.312802511050.37513530341433162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:07FORECAST2024196-9038.91230.41634.664127.326852153560.2157481480.2157481482.322.535748148FF6.912114.912103431.4941826947654.9407960050970.39398637021061162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024196-9036.89633.06234.979125.9151662912002.312.31FF4.89691.896103430.8964333067254.2563960541010.32522282789636162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024196-9036.03228.68832.36125.918508090350.0129921330.0629921332.312.372992133FF4.03291.032103430.8978508553454.2580145190420.29733234881295162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:04FORECAST2024196-9039.14626.632.873126.041485382660.0129921330.0429921332.322.362992133FF7.14690.146103430.9500078881354.3175791198910.40223585142638162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024196-9033.58431.132.342124.4998767652002.052.05FF1.58495.584103430.2950025993953.5716747963070.22488753807601161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024196-9035.63632.50434.07123.58093743096001.991.99FF3.63698.636103429.9033378689253.1278574985410.28492487172743162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:07FORECAST2024196-9035.67234.3435.006123.1919235047001.971.97FF3.672104.672103429.7372591071252.9401595510450.2860425651615162111122DRYL