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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 12, 2024

[ Thursday, April 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 13, 2024 ]

DAY 195 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/13/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.804
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 100

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 133 in
SWE DAY: 102
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.42 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-13 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024195-9150.5999428.5400439.56999132.5866770833300.014.094.1TF18.5999499.59994102433.07743490513 57.4202980138450.8038700527518716 4111123WETL
2024-04-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024195-9043.57426.83435.204132.442268800.014.094.1TF11.57492.574103433.6423339621257.432574557670.57991617620807163111122.5WETL
2024-04-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024195-9043.05226.81634.934133.470214400.014.094.1TF11.05292.052103434.0706483387457.9355024985190.56084284016806163111122.5WETL
2024-04-12 08:00:01FORECAST2024195-9042.7126.67234.691133.49914400.014.094.1TF10.7191.71103434.0826862711957.9496670424250.54826658464221163111122.5WETL
2024-04-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024195-9042.31426.83434.574133.498188700.014.094.1TF10.31491.314103434.0822887742257.9491992981090.53364468418804163111122.5WETL
2024-04-12 00:00:01FORECAST2024195-9142.45826.67234.565137.292996004.094.09TF10.45888.458102435.0360023675359.7273961329010.53896804727296163111122.5WETL
2024-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024195-9142.36826.65434.511137.565465600.014.094.1TF10.36886.368102435.1486771137259.8614303723730.53564170247622163111122.5WETL
2024-04-11 16:00:01FORECAST2024195-9141.79226.22234.007137.563497600.014.094.1TF9.79285.792102435.147863563459.8604620849480.51430396258014163111122.5WETL
2024-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024195-9141.75627.01434.385137.4489165713200.014.094.1TF9.75685.756102435.100489969759.8040909459860.51296835520306163111122.5WETL
2024-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024195-9141.30626.63633.971137.5633492382600.044.094.13TF9.30685.306102435.1478022320659.860389088710.49626583518127162111122WETL
2024-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024195-9141.28827.08634.187137.2991115914700.064.094.15TF9.28886.288102435.0385322124559.7304039808240.49559767562963162111122WETL
2024-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024195-9139.43427.28433.359143.1266016004.094.09TF7.43480.434102437.4314258116862.6080734094680.42718266081523162111122WETL
2024-04-10 20:00:01FORECAST2024195-9139.3827.7733.575143.4982584004.094.09TF7.3880.38102437.5828379946962.7923751579670.42521247794141162111122WETL
2024-04-10 16:00:01FORECAST2024195-9140.2827.4133.845143.6884350567900.064.094.15TF8.2880.28102437.6602602918362.8867178878820.45825517298257162111122WETL
2024-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024195-9139.77628.32834.052143.2851128208100.044.094.13TF7.77680.776102437.4960204240962.686666645120.43970070350755162111122WETL
2024-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024195-9138.0327.51832.774143.5626900043200.064.094.15TF6.0376.03102437.6090727574462.8243356553560.37668632061222162111122WETL
2024-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024195-9137.72426.79832.261144.0914766349700.084.094.17TF5.72475.724102437.8242178787763.0867380607020.3659236458848162111122WETL
2024-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024195-9139.225.75432.477143.2195470789200.154.114.26TF7.278.2102437.4693050045562.6541557236820.41865894480154162112124WETL
2024-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024195-9139.6526.47433.062139.686870364190.0125984320.1125984324.154.262598432TF7.6577.65102436.0232826858460.9067277643070.43508108726837162112124WETL
2024-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024195-9140.20827.42833.818139.3916304213700.074.154.22TF8.20879.208102435.901844276860.7610687774240.45559799410496162111122WETL
2024-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024195-9142.3526.7834.565140.53120029664004.154.15TF10.3582.35102436.3700711807661.3236098765630.53497612696096163111122.5WETL
2024-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024195-9143.1627.9535.555140.34905664067004.134.13TF11.1684.16102436.2953228956161.2336369851330.56480217902725163111122.5WETL
2024-04-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024195-9143.35828.92236.14139.99720056659004.084.08TF11.35886.358102436.150829905961.0598952116190.57204384194921163111122.5WETL
2024-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024195-9143.14228.2235.681143.95012333661003.863.86TF11.14285.142102437.7667343709563.0165754053630.56414272912104163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024195-9143.77228.23836.005141.64970451323003.943.94TF11.77285.772102436.8283265630961.8766033806720.58710458583492163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024195-9146.65230.18238.417141.01855798327003.873.87TF14.65292.652102436.5699035153461.564458252630.68725856494276163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024195-9147.82232.2740.046142.0492787671003.843.84TF15.82294.822102436.991718272562.0743584078050.72473717360349164111123DRYL
2024-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024195-9143.71829.19236.455142.6671753862300.053.843.89TF11.71890.718102437.2440588972862.3803748372870.58514689744844163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024195-9141.70227.534.601142.4272730714600.053.743.79TF9.70284.702102437.1461330649962.2615316661780.51096467605997163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024195-9138.7525.84432.297141.54475955060.0724409840.3424409843.684.022440984TF6.7578.75102436.7853855418561.8246823717380.40237734452144162112124WETL
2024-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024195-9138.0328.07633.053140.147799449270.0401575020.1101575023.663.770157502TF6.0379.03102436.2126905541461.1342486730080.37668632061222162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024195-9135.6927.3231.505141.373066273170.1039370640.2839370643.663.943937064TF3.6973.69102436.7151079865761.7397539038790.29738323339571162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024195-9133.27823.97228.625140.760585041520.0429134090.0429134093.683.722913409TF1.27870.278102436.4641571229561.436950106280.22470004778619161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024195-9131.58624.58428.085141.003867105810.0980315490.0980315493.643.738031549TF-0.41466.586102436.563883398161.5571957978630.18037931320008161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2024195-9132.43224.20628.319141.388863592390.0929134360.1529134363.813.962913436TF0.43269.432102436.7215754313661.7475672565190.201813065416161112123DRYL
2024-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024195-9132.61225.03428.823139.757885783110.1881890780.1981890783.393.588189078FF0.61267.612102436.0524792394860.9417725889940.20656237338004161112123DRYL
2024-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024195-9130.68622.89226.789139.036134332470.3122048930.4622048933.353.812204893TF-1.31466.686102435.7555003500360.585760282780.15920756265416161112123DRYL
2024-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024195-9131.94623.43227.689138.925363461280.3133859960.4633859963.363.823385996TF-0.05399999999999869.946102435.7098732773560.5311525087250.18931996086138161112123DRYL
2024-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024195-9133.2626.61829.939139.991291574360.4311025950.7811025953.434.211102595TF1.2677.26102436.1484022202361.0569781449020.22419827974376161113124.5WETL
2024-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024195-9136.26627.2331.748139.7456503260.1905512840.6405512843.54.140551284TF4.26672.266102436.0474492541960.9357343690210.31620371922864162113126WETL
2024-04-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024195-9133.15224.92629.039138.204484486790.1279528250.4179528253.43.817952825TF1.15276.152102435.4126258168660.175977490060.22120104288219161112123DRYL
2024-04-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024195-9135.63624.20629.921130.828146112190.0263779670.02637796733.026377967FF3.63676.636102432.3395804691656.5621858037020.29564531495814162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024195-9138.71425.98832.351131.101277964590.3153545010.3153545012.833.145354501FF6.71482.714102432.4543989897456.6953243689640.40108170391259162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:04FORECAST2024195-9139.68626.3333.008131.009882199730.2972442550.3072442552.863.167244255FF7.68683.686102432.4159871221456.6507675341530.43640010223262162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024195-9135.99628.00432130.208140387730.3862206810.3862206812.653.036220681FF3.99685.996102432.078648107156.2601572712690.30731828161852162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024195-9136.48228.0432.261128.09268675710.0618110570.0718110572.52.571811057FF4.48286.482102431.1852500826655.2316771731190.32338956334498162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024195-9136.82428.59832.711128.588852087950.0598425520.0598425522.512.569842552FF4.82486.824102431.3952216662755.4726163502940.33490210082597162111122DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:04FORECAST2024195-9137.54427.46432.504129.29924175935002.482.48FF5.54482.544102431.6953902921455.8178866357830.35964096383991162111122DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:04FORECAST2024195-9140.04627.46433.755127.20558270307002.512.51FF8.04691.046102430.8091774905554.8013324565150.44962677706966162111122DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024195-9141.48629.49835.492127.43585052153002.622.62FF9.48696.486102430.9068770400254.9129843711730.50294769756134163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024195-9136.57228.00432.288128.501625259130.1858268720.2158268722.512.725826872FF4.57293.572102431.3583274225155.4302461428530.32640340619686162112124DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024195-9148.86634.1641.513127.10749505372002.562.56FF16.866102.866102430.7675428574254.7537833230530.75620044609722164111123DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:06FORECAST2024195-9150.79234.68242.737126.31820744356002.562.56FF18.792109.792102430.4321411974254.3714165021530.80877896899202164111123DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024195-9146.45431.65839.056126.0741806912002.552.55FF14.45489.454102430.3283077615454.2532888292670.68070445620413163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024195-9143.80830.54237.175125.84753742530.0311023790.0511023792.552.601102379FF11.80888.808102430.2318133407154.1436142309480.58840851236012163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:04FORECAST2024195-9142.36830.25436.311126.003197904660.0311023790.0311023792.562.591102379FF10.36885.368102430.2980924853954.2189357054330.53564170247622163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024195-9143.05231.49637.274124.5122751652002.292.29FF11.05296.052102429.6621901846953.498216852360.56084284016806163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024195-9147.73230.50639.119123.66034623096002.232.23FF15.73296.732102429.2977463055853.087107944320.72193422459093164111123DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:06FORECAST2024195-9145.75232.03638.894123.2411235047002.212.21FF13.752102.752102429.1181186695152.8849990610540.65702074085949163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:05FORECAST2024195-9139.50637.88638.696127.71364321464002.542.54FF7.506108.506102431.0246647321955.0477302483160.42981239053261162111122DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024195-9137.63432.91835.276129.934380716710.0374015950.0774015952.352.427401595FF5.63492.634102431.9633042047856.1268844241930.36277768939871162111122DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024195-9137.63431.85634.745129.887263641110.0531496350.1131496352.342.453149635FF5.63490.634102431.9434441487356.1039520081940.36277768939871162112124DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:04FORECAST2024195-9130.63225.7928.211130.76091616179002.532.53FF-1.36871.632102432.3113062833956.5294224767140.15799109239072161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024195-9141.9939.0240.505127.3348984741400.052.152.2FF9.99106.99102430.8640514735754.8640302505420.52164653421157163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:06FORECAST2024195-9141.82840.92841.378129.4625397465700.052.252.3FF9.82897.828102431.7643138279255.8973046400980.51563940951734163111122.5DRYL