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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 11, 2024

[ Wednesday, April 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, April 12, 2024 ]

DAY 194 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.526
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 80

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.27 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 101
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.03 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-12 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024194-9242.1800831.1100836.64508134.00563750.00999999999999090.429999999999993.844.27TF10.1800880.18008101433.04515280373 58.0304917677490.5255471734158416 3112125WETL
2024-04-12 00:00:01FORECAST2024194-9138.58828.6733.629137.766398400.423.844.26TF6.58876.588102435.2317192015459.9603064238360.37742620694554162112124WETL
2024-04-11 12:00:01FORECAST2024194-9136.5928.92232.756137.870462171320.0129921330.4329921333.844.272992133TF4.5974.59102435.2747103214760.0115254835080.30098256307617162112124WETL
2024-04-11 08:00:01FORECAST2024194-9137.07627.39232.234137.976137238260.0425197080.4625197083.844.302519708TF5.07675.076102435.3183554771760.0635451576520.31894265865403162112124WETL
2024-04-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024194-9138.37227.7733.071137.690841991470.055118140.475118143.844.31511814TF6.37276.372102435.2004980028159.9231230051120.36885884931305162112124WETL
2024-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024194-9237.0428.23832.639143.442465600.423.844.26TF5.0472.04101436.949666568562.6771375156830.31759690877232162112124WETL
2024-04-10 20:00:01FORECAST2024194-9237.56227.9532.756143.793163200.423.844.26TF5.56271.562101437.0929727674262.8509811667180.33733792764109162112124WETL
2024-04-10 16:00:01FORECAST2024194-9237.4927.71632.603144.007644656790.0618110570.4818110573.844.321811057TF5.4971.49101437.180553827662.9573418464650.33458669489184162112124WETL
2024-04-10 12:00:01FORECAST2024194-9237.54428.5833.062143.624888020810.0397638010.4597638013.844.299763801TF5.54471.544101437.0242261050962.7675555367240.33664929698682162112124WETL
2024-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024194-9236.1427.93232.036143.800621204320.0570866450.4770866453.844.317086645TF4.1469.14101437.096018959362.8546790522850.28477134948062162112124WETL
2024-04-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024194-9235.0627.46431.262144.297526234970.0814961070.5014961073.844.341496107TF3.0669.06101437.2988478733663.1011419735280.24765494328241161113124.5WETL
2024-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024194-9235.97826.47431.226143.472435078920.1484252770.5884252773.844.428425277TF3.97869.978101436.9619180401562.6919904179760.27903893878748162113126WETL
2024-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024194-9235.4226.88831.154139.934837309340.1011811570.5811811573.844.421181157TF3.4269.42101435.509292664960.942922015770.25973398666144162113126WETL
2024-04-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024194-9236.93228.1332.531139.728453621370.0696850770.5496850773.844.389685077TF4.93269.932101435.4241427740460.8411421392250.31357414229292162113126WETL
2024-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024194-9237.97627.64432.81140.9665218966400.483.844.32TF5.97670.976101435.9342770047661.4521388048880.35332270159309162112124WETL
2024-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024194-9239.1128.77833.944140.8432214406700.463.844.3TF7.1172.11101435.8835441241961.3912425274250.39837352221053162112124WETL
2024-04-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024194-9239.43429.51634.475140.5451901665900.413.844.25TF7.43474.434101435.7608513251161.2440917166410.41152845034694162112124WETL
2024-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024194-9237.74228.74233.242144.5121841366100.493.544.03TF5.74272.742101437.3863887442463.2076623490530.34425387244733162112124WETL
2024-04-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024194-9239.45228.6734.061142.2764141132300.573.544.11TF7.45273.452101436.4722619419462.0997082889920.41226235112821162113126WETL
2024-04-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024194-9241.07229.08435.078141.8354747832700.53.544.04TF9.07277.072101436.2913638690261.8815927382040.47926112878741162113126WETL
2024-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024194-9242.09829.17435.636143.041445967100.473.544.01TF10.09878.098101436.7856406663162.4784496185750.52212272488235163112125WETL
2024-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024194-9241.52229.335.411143.243897786230.0535433360.5535433363.514.063543336TF9.52277.522101436.8684688218662.5787422939480.49805981142598162113126WETL
2024-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024194-9240.40628.81434.61142.872828271460.0531496350.5131496353.453.963149635TF8.40674.406101436.7166223881862.3949389937570.45153572519041162113126DRYL
2024-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024194-9236.8628.3132.585141.398302491630.267716680.667716683.454.11771668TF4.8670.86101436.1118111209761.6654697890540.31090451349845162113126WETL
2024-04-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024194-9238.33629.26433.8140.167736350680.0732283860.4932283863.413.903228386TF6.33672.336101435.6053286821561.0578128636710.36743713723102162113126DRYL
2024-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024194-9236.6828.1332.405140.979258720720.1755906460.6055906463.44.005590646TF4.6868.68101435.9395167594661.4584299198150.30427403330047162113126WETL
2024-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024194-9236.9526.74431.847140.5565047844800.453.43.85TF4.9567.95101435.7655109961461.2496771312410.31424308400408162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024194-9235.9626.2431.1140.47097026600.483.333.81TF3.9665.96101435.7302822069861.2074555158910.27840548088563162112124DRYL
2024-04-07 04:00:06FORECAST2024194-9238.69628.2233.458140.873784579680.0618110570.5918110573.454.041811057TF6.69667.696101435.8961210339361.4063362536530.38173290721163162113126WETL
2024-04-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024194-9236.78828.14832.468138.739397162160.0125984320.3625984323.213.572598432TF4.78865.788101435.015457236460.35378229320.30824479179737162112124DRYL
2024-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024194-9237.68828.0432.864137.239562060670.1492126790.5192126793.153.669212679TF5.68866.688101434.3937518847959.6160082705620.3421734878139162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024194-9238.1228.79633.458137.152431163580.1515748850.5015748853.183.681574885TF6.1269.12101434.3575619072559.5731956098630.3589455794342162113126DRYL
2024-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024194-9243.0729.9336.5137.901160030830.3527560960.8127560963.143.952756096TF11.0775.07101434.6682866687159.9412609602270.56250151369504163113127.5DRYL
2024-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024194-9241.46829.40835.438138.971991343390.4460632330.9260632333.194.116063233TF9.46867.468101435.1116592480760.4683337424280.49580291825136162113126WETL
2024-04-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024194-9241.57630.97436.275137.581843731570.2937009460.6937009463.173.863700946TF9.57673.576101434.5358416969259.7842422681120.50031676669689163113127.5DRYL
2024-04-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024194-9241.46829.85835.663130.6943089947300.1733.17FF9.46872.468101431.652748483756.4145576887530.49580291825136162112124DRYL
2024-04-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024194-9242.7131.20836.959129.5478818697700.082.923FF10.7174.71101431.1679434575455.8568938050680.54759948761677163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024194-9242.15232.66637.409129.526024080910.0125984320.1225984322.923.042598432FF10.15275.152101431.1586864395955.8462704024690.52437585114819163112125DRYL
2024-04-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024194-9246.4933.13439.812128.55565858831002.822.82FF14.4981.49101430.7472075131655.3749909469290.69694047715564163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024194-9245.3232.46838.894128.047270445550.011811030.011811032.672.68181103FF13.3281.32101430.5312227077155.1283479093070.65285499373782163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024194-9246.23832.19839.218128.45778433257002.682.68FF14.23881.238101430.7056480614155.3274932494910.68765651537856163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-05 00:00:04FORECAST2024194-9245.24831.24438.246129.4828561593500.092.562.65FF13.24876.248101431.1404028323455.8252907644260.65006523087668163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-04 20:00:04FORECAST2024194-9246.47232.9939.731127.5623811030700.122.562.68FF14.47282.472101430.3249611615854.8932766938570.69628144024695163112125DRYL
2024-04-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024194-9246.41832.39639.407127.9210609215300.162.632.79FF14.41886.418101430.477560331255.0671462204790.69430050703434163112125DRYL
2024-04-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024194-9245.3234.73640.028127.698061187280.0330708840.0330708842.682.713070884FF13.3288.32101430.3827021637154.9590366348470.65285499373782163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024194-9245.2331.8238.525128.26300625372002.732.73FF13.2385.23101430.6229104780155.2329890596350.64936651616648163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-04 04:00:06FORECAST2024194-9246.99432.25239.623127.62299144356002.732.73FF14.99489.994101430.3507573974854.9226510290680.71512758288114164111123DRYL
2024-04-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024194-9241.23429.1235.177126.9474806912002.722.72FF9.23474.234101430.0630300872854.5954182080050.48602552707544162111122DRYL
2024-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024194-9242.83632.05437.445126.159543641980.0153543390.0153543392.722.735354339FF10.83675.836101429.7267915165554.214135908460.55282392936834163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024194-9241.9930.88436.437126.26499278802002.732.73FF9.9973.99101429.7718291367254.2651369064430.5176144223375163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024194-9244.61830.52437.571125.2330551652002.462.46FF12.61883.618101429.3305667143153.7663785454410.62532364932189163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2024194-9246.23833.58439.911124.47568863096002.42.4FF14.23880.238101429.0059757322253.4008142560670.68765651537856163111122.5DRYL
2024-04-03 04:00:06FORECAST2024194-9247.5734.41240.991124.1912739047002.382.38FF15.5787.57101428.883920343253.2636404246650.73525327364742164111123DRYL
2024-04-03 00:00:05FORECAST2024194-9248.77635.38442.08127.9987080146400.122.592.71FF16.77699.776101430.5105767343155.1047976086280.77492125115769164112126DRYL
2024-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024194-9248.16431.74839.956129.972559566750.0417323060.1617323062.42.561732306FF16.16486.164101431.3476972514756.0633642749970.75522374982562164112126DRYL
2024-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024194-9245.46432.93639.2129.794508464780.0578740470.2378740472.332.567874047FF13.46484.464101431.27235697155.97678358750.65840962362499163112125DRYL
2024-04-02 12:00:04FORECAST2024194-9238.40831.29834.853130.7609161617900.142.562.7FF6.40872.408101431.6808721810956.4469863359190.37028235744704162112124DRYL
2024-04-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024194-9254.8631.78443.322127.697600874140.0488189240.0588189242.312.368818924FF22.8695.86101430.3825063031554.958813513110.91822385651237165111123.5DRYL
2024-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2024194-9254.62629.33641.981129.616240546570.0488189240.1288189242.342.468818924FF22.62686.626101431.1968908046155.8901199214640.9144464361757165112127DRYL
2024-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2024194-9236.96830.23633.602130.20649281752002.222.22FF4.96860.968101431.446631644556.1771527443640.31491263589778162111122DRYL
2024-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2024194-9234.91626.07830.497133.6695344258600.272.152.42FF2.91656.916101432.9043558318157.8661236949630.24290857588162161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 16:00:04FORECAST2024194-9234.93430.95632.945134.0927839181200.272.282.55FF2.93466.934101433.0816396993558.0731227311110.24349917184513161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 12:00:07FORECAST2024194-9234.95233.54834.25131.7637268096200.082.282.36FF2.95271.952101432.1037166612156.9355960755690.24409054141604161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-01 08:00:05FORECAST2024194-9223.77420.26422.019132.6920621712100.222.22.42FF-8.22643.774101432.4941990707457.3885471517820.03097922608173161112123DRYL
2024-04-01 04:00:06FORECAST2024194-9223.88222.15423.018131.7433578942800.152.122.27FF-8.11843.882101432.0951386295556.9256644928530.031782035943261161112123DRYL