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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 1, 2024

[ Sunday, March 31, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 2, 2024 ]

DAY 184 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/02/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.928
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 196

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 129 in
SWE DAY: 91
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.98 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -102

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-02 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024184-10249.8900228.8699839.38129.45512166667005.685.68TF17.89002195.8900291424.66939513366 54.9756282151380.9279588056946116 5111123.5WETL
2024-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2024184-10144.97828.59836.788130.3603016005.685.68TF12.978190.97892425.7227402712255.4973448197340.80925966602998164111123WETL
2024-04-01 12:00:01FORECAST2024184-10145.44629.85837.652131.2647552005.685.68TF13.446191.44692426.1178311835855.9342527966670.82405192875807164111123WETL
2024-04-01 08:00:01FORECAST2024184-10145.5928.92237.256131.2742016005.685.68TF13.59191.5992426.1219528507555.9388191447150.82845353725323164111123WETL
2024-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2024184-10146.1330.52438.327131.36479655005.685.68TF14.13192.1392426.161476351155.982615638310.8443279743728164111123WETL
2024-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2024184-10246.41830.81238.615134.8943776005.685.68TF14.418192.41891427.0462422243557.6061370512720.85238604633832165111123.5WETL
2024-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2024184-10247.24631.13639.191135.1732432005.685.68TF15.246193.24691427.1672182731157.7415782826980.87397824591421165111123.5WETL
2024-03-31 16:00:02FORECAST2024184-10246.81430.61438.714135.1882005.685.68TF14.814192.81491427.1737043347257.7488441763430.86300318085921165111123.5WETL
2024-03-31 12:00:02FORECAST2024184-10247.98430.95639.47134.705056005.685.68TF15.984193.98491426.9640628476157.5142179958740.89128307994587165111123.5WETL
2024-03-31 08:00:01FORECAST2024184-10248.16431.1939.677134.6738632005.685.68TF16.164195.16491426.9505191060157.4990758032520.89523223823543165111123.5WETL
2024-03-31 04:00:04FORECAST2024184-10247.96631.04639.506134.2292896005.685.68TF15.966193.96691426.757371023157.2833387439940.89088237239172165111123.5WETL
2024-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2024184-10248.88431.38840.136142.372956005.685.68TF16.884194.88491430.2610794780561.2575417370410.90999358387702165111123.5WETL
2024-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2024184-10248.3831.0139.695142.6576272005.685.68TF16.38192.3891430.3822494764761.3973104993120.89983323671822165111123.5WETL
2024-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2024184-10248.75830.99239.875142.6162992005.685.68TF16.758192.75891430.3646636925461.3770156422830.90752807710221165111123.5WETL
2024-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2024184-10247.82230.14638.984142.5622776005.685.68TF15.822191.82291430.3416737769161.3504891598330.88763858731704165111123.5WETL
2024-03-30 08:00:02FORECAST2024184-10247.49830.6539.074142.4972352005.685.68TF15.498191.49891430.3139895651361.3185537809130.88009041562798165111123.5WETL
2024-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2024184-10247.28230.39838.84142.07188648333005.685.68TF15.282191.28291430.1328341879661.1097831915060.87486443031932165111123.5WETL
2024-03-30 00:00:03FORECAST2024184-10247.51629.78638.651143.60395916407005.75.7TF15.516188.51691430.7844255316761.8623490525650.88051888576428165111123.5WETL
2024-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2024184-10248.12829.98439.056143.5044184005.75.7TF16.128187.12891430.742167767461.8134042658160.89445080753283165111123.5WETL
2024-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2024184-10248.41629.98439.2143.4808024005.75.7TF16.416187.41691430.7321405642761.8017931476320.9005855508649165111123.5WETL
2024-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2024184-10247.87630.12839.002143.70338005292005.75.7TF15.876185.87691430.826621742161.911241761120.88886296307884165111123.5WETL
2024-03-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024184-10247.58830.18238.885143.67293564254005.715.71TF15.588186.58891430.8137016583261.8962692322770.88222199425196165111123.5WETL
2024-03-29 04:00:04FORECAST2024184-10247.37230.32638.849143.73027434218005.745.74TF15.372187.37291430.8380343844961.9244688791260.87706088028832165111123.5WETL
2024-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2024184-10247.330.61438.957142.42841834327006.086.08TF15.3184.391430.2846938389661.2847683808030.87530589170332165111123.5WETL
2024-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2024184-10247.4830.45238.966136.86555305805006.176.17TF15.48183.4891427.8995324661358.5647061642580.87966086678655165111123.5WETL
2024-03-28 16:00:03FORECAST2024184-10246.25629.69637.976137.17023191674006.196.19TF14.256179.25691428.0310422658858.7131173351750.84788831639551164111123WETL
2024-03-28 12:00:03FORECAST2024184-10246.430.52438.462139.97655482199006.186.18TF14.4181.491429.2375731980960.0831966964220.85189073188483165111123.5WETL
2024-03-28 08:00:03FORECAST2024184-10246.25631.4638.858140.25166135699006.226.22TF14.256182.25691429.355388375460.2178065322240.84788831639551164111123WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024184-10246.45430.238.327139.58743468025006.186.18TF14.454184.45491429.0707907242259.892890973420.85337335235647165111123.5WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:04FORECAST2024184-10245.30230.39837.85140.47395188594006.436.43TF13.302182.30291429.4505248270160.3266123619410.81957964095545164111123WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2024184-10245.57230.36237.967132.1887557546006.316.31TF13.572180.57291425.8680436314656.2949668032860.82790720712202164111123WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024184-10246.1329.94838.039132.31604219839006.386.38TF14.13183.1391425.9236538746656.3565321593710.8443279743728164111123WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024184-10246.6731.44239.056136.27973678531006.436.43TF14.67181.6791427.646388014558.2795371958040.85920425091646165111123.5WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2024184-10246.2231.42438.822136.12442061448006.356.35TF14.22179.2291427.5792091909758.2039721179180.84687662338752164111123WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:05FORECAST2024184-10245.4129.69637.553136.28394860004006.296.29TF13.41178.4191427.648209379558.2815865859750.82294047604511164111123WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2024184-10246.43630.63238.534134.84360160404006.136.13TF14.436174.43691427.0242056182657.5814818576710.85288025309053165111123.5WETL
2024-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2024184-10246.23832.46839.353132.47233779147005.975.97TF14.238177.23891425.9919133529156.4321446421220.84738302455059164111123WETL
2024-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2024184-10245.82431.53238.678132.2816142827005.935.93TF13.824176.82491425.9086144177556.339879052090.83545502810443164111123WETL
2024-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024184-10243.1630.25436.707132.06652073232005.765.76TF11.16177.1691425.8146233807656.235855786840.74494533628709164111123WETL
2024-03-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024184-10242.5331.02836.779132.19930285303005.785.78TF10.53176.5391425.8726522421956.300067730590.72027337810572164111123WETL
2024-03-26 04:00:05FORECAST2024184-10243.17830.54236.86132.82824143886005.875.87TF11.178174.17891426.1472472280256.6043894433090.74563316754774164111123WETL
2024-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024184-10250.48633.02641.756131.98024756599005.855.85TF18.486183.48691425.776909518956.1941419261860.93722684284947165111123.5WETL
2024-03-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024184-10252.73634.26843.502130.86115122973006.026.02TF20.736181.73691425.2869528040255.6535402469190.96412862517947165111123.5WETL
2024-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024184-10251.99834.28643.142129.97364340126005.915.91TF19.998186.99891424.8973974936555.2254628239620.95659985409736165111123.5WETL
2024-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024184-10246.3130.3838.345130.99276852363005.795.79TF14.31177.3191425.3446490692155.7170731582860.84939753724747165111123.5WETL
2024-03-25 08:00:04FORECAST2024184-10245.57229.51637.544131.40536787871005.885.88TF13.572173.57291425.525392758155.9163207771090.82790720712202164111123WETL
2024-03-25 04:00:06FORECAST2024184-10245.89630.86638.381131.45898864423005.785.78TF13.896177.89691425.5488680197655.9422238085740.83757163438926164111123WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:04FORECAST2024184-10248.50636.48242.494126.60764466263005.695.69TF16.506190.50691423.4119470951453.6071893437320.90244830817615165111123.5WETL
2024-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024184-10249.06437.3143.187126.57812531903005.795.79TF17.064197.06491423.3988636417753.5930344219830.91343080621097165111123.5WETL
2024-03-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024184-10247.0335.04241.036127.14076394991005.755.75TF15.03187.0391423.6480654762653.8629386905550.86856955726619165111123.5WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:04FORECAST2024184-10244.85233.1739.011130.12183303775006.126.12TF12.852169.85291424.9625037094955.296899954990.80515062457151164111123WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2024184-10243.48432.57638.03130.68810669576006.336.33TF11.484173.48491425.2110669775355.5700292893790.75717615878999164111123WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:09FORECAST2024184-10244.54632.19838.372130.6610628556006.186.18TF12.546179.54691425.1992043334755.5569799635650.79495025936742164111123WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:04FORECAST2024184-10242.47630.00236.239134.685590365370.0740157880.0740157886.896.964015788TT10.476171.47691426.9556111023757.5047685411320.71810601925336164111123WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:04FORECAST2024184-10243.53831.80237.67131.26380999754006.696.69TF11.538173.53891425.4634031145755.8479473073360.75918336741449164111123WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024184-10244.2431.44237.841133.447922855130.0440945120.0440945126.936.974094512TT12.24168.2491426.4173718377156.9045125410840.78443971282814164111123WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:05FORECAST2024184-10240.47824.63832.558133.653008204540.3062993780.3062993786.336.636299378TT8.478164.47891426.5066767552557.0039003676580.63282480477358163112125WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:05FORECAST2024184-10254.37433.22443.799130.26788467829006.366.36TF22.374181.37491425.0266466359755.3673221891740.97707154645108165111123.5WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:05FORECAST2024184-10247.24627.82437.535134.92028388816006.896.89TT15.246158.24691427.0574843686457.618717027580.87397824591421165111123.5WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:04FORECAST2024184-10232.75628.8530.803141.46470824525006.526.52TF0.756148.75691429.8738985565360.8119856415470.28095704600376162111122WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024184-10231.74828.430.074138.30019570299006.296.29TF-0.252147.74891428.5178855427359.264107432790.24195594885906161111121.5WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:04FORECAST2024184-10232.05429.80430.929139.9919524957006.536.53TF0.054000000000002144.05491429.24416947260.0907293817780.25347718708262162111122WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:04FORECAST2024184-10230.3826.85228.616139.57535974309006.226.22TF-1.62144.3891429.065612595559.8869872314080.19408488012844161111121.5WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:04FORECAST2024184-10233.13430.2931.712139.8129940149800.066.026.08TF1.134138.13491429.167488771960.0031915390910.29632679352628162111122WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:06FORECAST2024184-10233.1732.03632.603141.9925931272900.26.096.29TF1.17132.1791430.0990416181861.0708782209260.29781044451648162112124WETL