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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 9, 2024

[ Friday, March 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 10, 2024 ]

DAY 161 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/11/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.569
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -27

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 153 in
SWE DAY: 69
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 420.32 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 64.14 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024162-12436.5500423.1299629.84152.604681666670.450000000000050.530000000000057.678.2TT4.55004-27.4499669420.31954024911 64.1427296379950.5688099657181816 3113127.5WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024161-12436.5500423.1299629.84152.604681666670.450000000000050.530000000000057.678.2TT4.55004-27.4499669420.31954024911 64.1427296379950.5688099657181816 3113127.5WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:01FORECAST2024161-12428.11220.42624.269155.687996781790.4208663690.5008663697.678.170866369TT-3.888-35.88869421.7048513032665.6543835325690.226355601303161113124.5WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:04FORECAST2024161-12427.98620.22824.107155.908429229970.5665357390.6465357397.678.316535739TT-4.014-36.01469421.8034750761265.762717242860.22222298109556161113124.5WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:03FORECAST2024161-12428.20221.90225.052156.157828101070.6354334140.7154334147.678.385433414TT-3.798-35.79869421.9149921681365.8853288202570.22933380950802161113124.5WETL
2024-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024161-12430.97423.61227.293158.815236530320.488189240.488189247.678.15818924TT-1.026-34.02669423.0988589010567.1945453520780.3309130648145162112124WETL
2024-03-08 19:00:01FORECAST2024161-12430.68623.16226.924158.911717518210.4968506620.4968506627.678.166850662TT-1.314-34.31469423.1416907190367.2421728257210.3195567049969162113126WETL
2024-03-08 15:00:01FORECAST2024161-12431.11822.8226.969158.968938540620.5173231140.5173231147.678.187323114TT-0.882-33.88269423.1670884901167.2704228825980.33665094283525162113126WETL
2024-03-08 11:00:02FORECAST2024161-12429.73220.9325.331158.976564389780.5185042170.5185042177.678.188504217TT-2.268-35.26869423.1704729738767.2741879445850.28317473676857162113126WETL
2024-03-08 07:00:05FORECAST2024161-12429.64221.14625.394158.820064081760.4767719110.4767719117.678.146771911TT-2.358-35.35869423.1010022961267.1969282977290.2798474922682162112124WETL
2024-03-08 03:00:05FORECAST2024161-12429.55221.75825.655159.07416312450.5318900510.5318900517.678.201890051TT-2.448-36.44869423.2137831924567.3223783840950.27653930389405162113126WETL
2024-03-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024161-12429.46222.71226.087163.126828771030.5500002970.5500002977.678.220000297TT-2.538-36.53869425.0027397092569.3293491477670.27325038128006162113126WETL
2024-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024161-12429.53421.90225.718163.510883800010.6334649090.6334649097.678.303464909TT-2.466-36.46669425.1713187097669.5201380886510.27587997148922162113126WETL
2024-03-07 15:00:02FORECAST2024161-12430.61421.95626.285163.421348654360.6118113540.6118113547.678.281811354TT-1.386-35.38669425.132032412169.4756500929550.31674330857765162113126WETL
2024-03-07 11:00:01FORECAST2024161-12431.51423.1827.347163.728313861260.7169295210.7169295217.678.386929521TT-0.486-33.48669425.2666856487769.6281973826380.35262378894475162113126WETL
2024-03-07 07:00:03FORECAST2024161-12431.0122.15426.582163.356980374590.7102366040.7102366047.678.380236604TT-0.99-35.9969425.1037833296169.4436703905370.33234388354965162113126WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:04FORECAST2024161-12430.72222.76626.744164.592823078191.0125989721.0125989727.678.682598972TT-1.278-35.27869425.6453472061570.0581693267560.3209673176218162114128WETL
2024-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2024161-12430.70424.06227.383168.684655802571.1755911861.1755911867.678.845591186TT-1.296-39.29669427.4263624532772.1002688313740.32026168688339162114128WETL
2024-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2024161-12430.30825.50227.905168.417055823531.1212604481.1212604487.678.791260448TT-1.692-40.69269427.310451460971.966368157670.30490568938876162114128WETL
2024-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2024161-12430.32623.95427.14168.399494916850.9614178421.0814178427.678.751417842TT-1.674-42.67469427.3028421950571.9575828021790.30559656303659162114128WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024161-12429.55223.19826.375168.070881647150.9377957820.9677957827.678.637795782TT-2.448-41.44869427.1603891079571.7932232021150.27653930389405162113126WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2024161-12429.89425.44827.671168.356436322561.0657486071.1857486077.678.855748607TT-2.106-41.10669427.2841831632571.936042374360.2892111103064162114128WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024161-12430.18225.37627.779168.334424217231.0618115971.1618115977.678.831811597TT-1.818-40.81869427.2746436387171.9250311195460.30008912107162162114128WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:03FORECAST2024161-12429.76825.68227.725172.642557742081.0102367661.0502367667.628.670236766TT-2.232-44.23269429.1315604233574.0863701993360.28451092238732162114128WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024161-12429.6624.1726.915173.975090592211.1885833191.3385833197.628.958583319TT-2.34-47.3469429.7018141331774.7574120414550.28051142347337162114128WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024161-12428.14824.3526.249174.539302167071.2295282231.3895282237.629.009528223TT-3.852-50.85269429.9426858784875.0418963650650.22754425994958161114126WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:03FORECAST2024161-12428.65223.86426.258172.747993166310.9472446061.0472446067.628.667244606TT-3.348-48.34869429.1767515687974.1394225471440.24454915115496161114126WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:05FORECAST2024161-12429.3925.37627.383172.350420113790.8551185720.8951185727.628.515118572TT-2.61-47.6169429.006282775673.9394130678320.27063325224588162113126WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024161-12430.07425.84427.959172.946093577250.8913390641.0413390647.628.661339064TT-1.926-48.92669429.2616275411874.2391216058570.29598821438552162114128WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2024161-12431.6426.56429.102169.136727399860.9460635031.1360635037.338.466063503TT-0.36-51.3669427.6219984867272.3265853882320.35776266949635162114128WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2024161-12431.31626.0628.688169.905219219551.0500005671.3000005677.338.630000567TT-0.684-52.68469427.9540517205872.7116269734820.34460275280484162114128WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:04FORECAST2024161-12430.90226.97828.94168.49716358270.8570870770.9970870777.338.327087077TT-1.098-50.09869427.3451584178472.0064470642060.32805883701067162114128WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024161-12428.6722.24425.457167.571509336840.5248034330.5248034337.337.854803433TT-3.33-56.3369426.9436846121671.5435976322920.24516885414453161113124.5WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:04FORECAST2024161-12429.80423.34226.573167.341469234120.4358270070.4358270077.377.805827007TT-2.196-56.19669426.8437653302871.4286628237930.2858501087599162112124WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:06FORECAST2024161-12429.49823.23426.366167.503985933420.4118112460.4118112467.427.831811246TT-2.502-52.50269426.9143614749271.5098571992710.27456362522376162112124WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2024161-12427.93223.73825.835167.336797442480.5885829950.7185829957.398.108582995TT-4.068-54.06869426.8417355049571.4263290341870.22046509982927161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024161-12428.74224.45826.6167.325357534280.6834649360.8134649367.338.143464936TT-3.258-54.25869426.8367649371.420614300690.24765607514605161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024161-12428.05824.40426.231167.507829953040.6814964310.7914964317.358.141496431TT-3.942-56.94269426.9160309380371.5117779145960.22457919514819161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024161-12433.828.00430.902166.207670398670.1173228980.1173228987.377.487322898TT1.8-47.269426.3504391852770.8627132704340.44912882456902162112124WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:06FORECAST2024161-12431.85625.50228.679168.125021618030.5145672070.6045672077.267.864567207TT-0.144-48.14469427.1838668410571.8202968475240.36663195930388162113126WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2024161-12432.93624.94428.94167.16388154660.452756150.552756157.127.67275615TT0.936-45.06469426.7665891234271.3399595522740.41196411345317162113126WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2024161-12434.32223.55828.94164.922948554390.6248034870.8548034877.067.914803487TT2.322-44.67869425.7897254149570.2224969795970.47182272946564162113126WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024161-12433.83621.84827.842164.37680658520.2822836170.6522836177.127.772283617TT1.836-51.16469425.5508082637969.9506829021530.45068944838287162113126WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024161-12436.1426.2431.19162.6179922380200.257.27.45TT4.14-45.8669424.7791350781269.0767300910080.55109728810144163112125WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2024161-12435.99626.92431.46166.9349333834500.257.67.85TT3.996-51.00469426.6670412538971.2256341086290.54485074165159163112125WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:05FORECAST2024161-12434.01624.76429.39167.9205543820500.347.617.95TT2.016-59.98469427.0951829402571.7180598932310.45850352908813162112124WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2024161-12434.71826.49230.605168.571281052110.1712599350.5212599357.518.031259935TT2.718-58.28269427.3772637725672.0435328466870.48910406058634162113126WETL
2024-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2024161-12435.07829.01232.045165.604983107860.0992126520.3092126527.798.099212652TT3.078-53.92269426.0876255959770.5622340392870.50483299142911163112125WETL
2024-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2024161-12435.34828.431.874165.555621578080.0610236550.2710236557.788.051023655TT3.348-54.65269426.0660827045470.5376351554850.51662609695414163112125WETL
2024-03-01 15:00:04FORECAST2024161-12434.59224.45829.525165.776266121420.3370080560.3370080567.768.097008056TT2.592-51.40869426.1623578331270.6476044430750.48360168460895162112124WETL
2024-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2024161-12435.16824.40429.786168.755599355670.0295275750.0595275757.978.029527575TT3.168-59.83269427.4570784598572.1357754743170.50876500538998163111122.5WETL
2024-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2024161-12433.4424.99829.219173.073578949940.2720473910.7120473917.948.652047391TT1.44-71.5669429.316225972374.3032957303060.43356976778581162113126WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:05FORECAST2024161-12434.80827.9531.379168.943808352140.2606300620.5006300627.568.060630062TT2.808-53.19269427.5385393707672.2299890586060.4930356603758162113126WETL
2024-02-29 23:00:04FORECAST2024161-12434.71827.35631.037153.714026965310.3338584480.4538584488.178.623858448TT2.718-51.28269420.8192109904464.6858155457050.48910406058634162112124WETL
2024-02-29 19:00:04FORECAST2024161-12430.9222.31626.618149.226999396370.0287401730.0287401737.947.968740173TT-1.08-58.0869418.7894678080262.4946956597910.32877146216803162111122WETL
2024-02-29 15:00:04FORECAST2024161-12430.45218.73424.593154.423247454270.051181130.051181138.638.68118113TT-1.548-67.54869421.1379207215865.0334853439650.31045194804442162111122WETL
2024-02-29 11:00:04FORECAST2024161-12427.2317.72622.478162.5765185819500.218.869.07TT-4.77-72.7769424.7608970312869.0561478690930.198347233429161112123WETL
2024-02-29 07:00:06FORECAST2024161-12428.18420.67824.431163.116588609210.295275750.375275758.669.03527575TT-3.816-65.81669424.9982425911269.3242634963730.22873641947782161112123WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:06FORECAST2024161-12427.55420.60624.08165.097271820030.7602366310.9502366318.038.980236631TT-4.446-79.44669425.8659157216970.3093008467880.2083847446885161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 23:00:04FORECAST2024161-12420.53418.73419.634155.586038399730.15748040.61748049.8410.4574804TT-11.466-81.46669421.6592153806465.6042868758140.056814343243215161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 19:00:05FORECAST2024161-12421.25419.99420.624154.494277186980.1043307650.5943307659.5710.164330765TT-10.746-83.74669421.1698084676165.0683251321840.066419919225297161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 15:00:04FORECAST2024161-12424.90822.24423.576160.623105229040.2200788590.88007885910.1611.040078859TT-7.092-78.09269423.8997032398168.0880866400480.13522140150185161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 11:00:04FORECAST2024161-12426.31224.63825.475166.303783491980.2515749390.25157493910.5910.841574939TT-5.688-60.68869426.3923139973970.9106550696640.1715294704618161112123WETL
2024-02-28 07:00:06FORECAST2024161-12429.51626.25827.887162.73528868780010.4510.45TT-2.484-53.48469424.8307058110469.1349475535990.27522141138399162111122WETL
2024-02-28 03:00:10FORECAST2024161-12426.81626.70826.762159.82087484979009.739.73TT-5.184-63.18469423.544787419767.6912984634830.18595398759177161111121.5WETL