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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 6, 2024

[ Tuesday, March 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 7, 2024 ]

DAY 158 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/07/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.221
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -27

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 161 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 421.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -127

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-07 07:00:02OBSERVATION2024158-12728.650029.1999418.92498160.5787470833300.58.428.92TT-3.34998-27.3499866421.88491978251 67.7457518320280.2210907499799316 1113124.5WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024158-12728.650029.1999418.92498160.5787470833300.58.428.92TT-3.34998-27.3499866421.88491978251 67.7457518320280.2210907499799316 1113124.5WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2024158-12724.1710.81417.49216400.58.428.92TT-7.83-31.8366423.4078609832569.4388892012530.092236139495062161113124.5WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:04FORECAST2024158-12724.2249.42816.826163.6627304166700.58.428.92TT-7.776-31.77666423.2583156741169.2716116147830.093355644155513161113124.5WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:03FORECAST2024158-12724.0629.87816.97163.6627304166700.58.428.92TT-7.938-31.93866423.2583156741169.2716116147830.090026897229982161113124.5WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2024158-12724.5849.48217.03316800.458.428.87TT-7.416-35.41666425.1717255108971.4288498858290.1010756210073161112123WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:01FORECAST2024158-12724.3329.37416.85316800.458.428.87TT-7.668-35.66866425.1717255108971.4288498858290.095624608552448161112123WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:01FORECAST2024158-12723.57610.63417.10516800.458.428.87TT-8.424-36.42466425.1717255108971.4288498858290.080568644745046161112123WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2024158-12724.2610.61617.43816800.458.428.87TT-7.74-35.7466425.1717255108971.4288498858290.094107518674746161112123WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:04FORECAST2024158-12724.3510.86817.609168.3346370833300.458.428.87TT-7.65-35.6566425.3184784000771.5958317063120.096006668272684161112123WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:04FORECAST2024158-12724.31410.7617.537168.3346370833300.458.428.87TT-7.686-35.68666425.3184784000771.5958317063120.095243665079472161112123WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2024158-12723.93611.24617.59116400.168.428.58TT-8.064-41.06466423.4078609832569.4388892012530.08749926385937161112123WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2024158-12723.95411.10217.52816400.168.428.58TT-8.046-42.04666423.4078609832569.4388892012530.087857087234696161112123WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:03FORECAST2024158-12725.2511.31818.28416400.168.428.58TT-6.75-39.7566423.4078609832569.4388892012530.11656032166312161112123WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024158-12725.08811.5718.329164.8920208462700.168.428.58TT-6.912-40.91266423.8027660284369.8816945306680.11264775727221161112123WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2024158-12724.27812.05618.167165.2300010107900.28.428.62TT-7.722-41.72266423.9521590804870.0496156733940.094485121494738161112123WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:05FORECAST2024158-12725.68211.24618.464165.4396025891600.258.428.67TT-6.318-39.31866424.0447421779370.1537936259390.12746051787499161112123WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2024158-12725.35811.15618.257163.4100946979500.258.398.64TT-6.642-39.64266423.1462130624469.1463627476140.11922149649883161112123WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:03FORECAST2024158-12725.23212.27218.752163.0413052802100.198.398.58TT-6.768-39.76866422.9824401070668.9636091456640.11612090773577161112123WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2024158-12724.81811.98418.401163.2202435789500.218.398.6TT-7.182-40.18266423.0619226476569.0522700635260.10633624784822161112123WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2024158-12725.62812.18218.905165.7564758046500.238.398.62TT-6.372-39.37266424.1846146710670.311346818430.12606060791276161112123WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:05FORECAST2024158-12726.29410.00418.149165.0630884696500.248.278.51TT-5.706-36.70666423.8783968921269.9666773265760.14408078069099161112123WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2024158-12726.74413.22619.985164.3303883636400.198.188.37TT-5.256-35.25666423.5542309963869.6028312726960.15719313400868161112123WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2024158-12726.22212.30819.265160.5971399911500.118.28.31TT-5.778-38.77866421.8931426604667.754832093150.14205312668018161112123WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2024158-12725.08810.02217.555161.01532425900.128.258.37TT-6.912-41.91266422.079995785267.961347384590.11264775727221161112123WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2024158-12725.14211.4818.311161.3983086664600.098.368.45TT-6.858-39.85866422.2509468759268.1505886585860.11394141948885161111121.5WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2024158-12724.56611.96618.266165.6156763865500.458.48.85TT-7.434-43.43466424.1224776367470.2413310045470.10067893117713161112123WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:05FORECAST2024158-12722.17212.21817.195165.7661264633900.68.268.86TT-9.828-45.82866424.1888728473470.3161463407770.057441548969955161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:04FORECAST2024158-12723.82812.77618.302165.3146178847100.468.38.76TT-8.172-45.17266423.9895411263470.0916689784140.085375058145199161112123WETL
2024-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2024158-12724.36812.99218.68164.015666189600.58.549.04TT-7.632-49.63266423.4148042575269.4466611948360.096389845576285161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2024158-12724.3511.73218.041164.1559021198800.588.459.03TT-7.65-49.6566423.4769446877969.5162398821950.096006668272684161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 15:00:04FORECAST2024158-12725.30411.78618.545164.0437621474200.588.439.01TT-6.696-48.69666423.4272557281269.4606000253970.11788561269627161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2024158-12724.2610.32817.294168.6219971114500.688.549.22TT-7.74-51.7466425.4443987386971.7392841751970.094107518674746161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 07:00:05FORECAST2024158-12720.6247.57414.099168.66454690300.868.339.19TT-11.376-60.37666425.4630361242571.760530211870.03835053453385161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:04FORECAST2024158-12727.66215.96221.812165.741244746100.488.338.81TT-4.338-47.33866424.1778940332870.3037721508540.18629378985181161112123WETL
2024-02-29 23:00:04FORECAST2024158-12728.32818.19423.261150.3998216811600.49.029.42TT-3.672-44.67266417.2748038273662.7580560876780.20936099859599161112123WETL
2024-02-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024158-12727.57218.35622.964149.0392459682800.378.829.19TT-4.428-44.42866416.6495081740262.0971285313090.18330178665805161112123WETL
2024-02-29 15:00:03FORECAST2024158-12727.71617.40222.559153.915474991640.5622050281.1222050288.769.882205028TT-4.284-48.28466418.8805631796464.4722008465610.1881033991551161114126WETL
2024-02-29 11:00:04FORECAST2024158-12726.4218.28422.352160.800911586430.5381892671.5281892678.5810.108189267TT-5.58-45.5866421.9842166925667.855446719250.14767579959639161115127.5WETL
2024-02-29 07:00:05FORECAST2024158-12728.52618.35623.441159.74451926190.4228348741.3228348748.599.912834874TT-3.474-43.47466421.5115591987767.3341613875390.2165294271702161114126WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:05FORECAST2024158-12724.00813.08218.545156.2163687440500.668.629.28TT-7.992-50.99266419.9237498256565.5989633471470.088937082754164161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2024158-12725.6114.66620.138149.2141800064100.9310.1611.09TT-6.39-50.3966416.7300257607562.1820290779420.12559635510196161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 19:00:04FORECAST2024158-12727.06815.4421.254148.469648943110.0374015950.74740159510.0710.817401595TT-4.932-51.93266416.3870894471661.8208449946630.1671040573509161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2024158-12726.97815.92621.452152.150081551130.0862205191.4062205191011.406220519TT-5.022-54.02266418.0760197631363.6103005015340.16431154708539161114126WETL
2024-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2024158-12727.89618.7723.333163.605021402320.370078941.890078949.9511.84007894TT-4.104-42.10466423.232714663269.2429973406360.19421321393579161115127.5WETL
2024-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2024158-12727.42818.91423.171162.74739188780.4145671531.8345671539.8711.704567153TT-4.572-40.57266422.8518083941468.8180289711840.17857717193418161115127.5WETL
2024-02-28 03:00:09FORECAST2024158-12725.73616.14220.939159.868402049790.3118111921.1818111929.810.981811192TT-6.264-48.26466421.5670532565367.3952511609590.12887116973006161114126WETL
2024-02-27 23:00:06FORECAST2024158-12727.10417.70822.406155.4169316692700.8110.3311.14TT-4.896-44.89666419.5619893954265.2070370368930.16822955794639161113124.5WETL
2024-02-27 19:00:05FORECAST2024158-12726.3319.09422.712158.024178295010.1976379021.18763790210.1811.367637902TT-5.67-47.6766420.7391141820566.4869527951890.14510187078255161114126WETL
2024-02-27 15:00:05FORECAST2024158-12727.5919.20223.396158.588358507350.1956693971.15566939710.2211.375669397TT-4.41-48.4166420.9928070575366.7645582146540.18389778326242161114126WETL
2024-02-27 11:00:05FORECAST2024158-12725.71817.6921.704161.201196902040.5625987291.3925987299.9711.362598729TT-6.282-46.28266422.1629837210368.0531782635680.12839975776818161114126WETL
2024-02-27 07:00:10FORECAST2024158-12724.60217.6921.146154.061057377030.2779529060.6979529069.5710.267952906TT-7.398-47.39866418.9467486165564.5433790765330.10147344511306161113124.5WETL
2024-02-27 03:00:09FORECAST2024158-12731.02822.6426.834161.832912136510.767716951.837716959.4711.30771695TT-0.972-38.97266422.4447376216568.3654621060570.318372297723661621151210WETL
2024-02-26 23:00:06FORECAST2024158-12728.3121.61424.962151.050634706560.8322839141.9422839149.3211.262283914TT-3.69-41.6966417.5731423780863.0746881926230.20871630855745161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 19:00:05FORECAST2024158-12730.52423.14426.834152.197190521220.8185043792.1185043799.4411.558504379TT-1.476-38.47666418.0975356350163.6332702874930.296310902120261621151210WETL
2024-02-26 15:00:06FORECAST2024158-12727.69822.8225.259154.00214896480.9547249252.4047249259.6212.024724925TT-4.302-39.30266418.9199703093964.5145756719170.18749899688629161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024158-12728.54423.23425.889170.283765974961.7732293043.7432293049.7713.513229304TT-3.456-43.45666426.1707812939972.5699655872340.21718805669031161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 07:00:07FORECAST2024158-12728.7623.0925.925156.351290121931.1192919432.2392919439.5811.819291943TT-3.24-45.2466419.9847318900665.6651546625260.22518121551007161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 03:00:09FORECAST2024158-12731.04623.48627.266155.479797155021.0696856172.1696856179.511.669685617TT-0.954-35.95466419.5904638383765.2378402057690.319172877096141621151210WETL
2024-02-25 23:00:05FORECAST2024158-12727.33825.46626.402138.57949169360.2433072180.5833072189.159.733307218TT-4.662-30.66266411.7695479266957.0628146465860.17566350465724161113124.5WETL
2024-02-25 19:00:06FORECAST2024158-12727.84226.88827.365139.726378612610.2232284670.5532284679.259.803228467TT-4.158-39.15866412.3109742063257.6107192880870.19236772917358161113124.5WETL
2024-02-25 15:00:05FORECAST2024158-12729.49827.30228.4137.3614711649300.189.399.57TT-2.502-38.50266411.1928110328856.4820494559180.25370985186755162112124WETL
2024-02-25 11:00:06FORECAST2024158-12719.32817.45618.392141.779898457800.099.39.39TT-12.672-47.67266413.2764753179358.5942967055720.026658620391176161111121.5WETL
2024-02-25 07:00:08FORECAST2024158-12720.26418.91419.589141.654380562500.159.439.58TT-11.736-40.73666413.2176051012158.5340838881340.034747032680339161112123WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:11FORECAST2024158-12714.14413.47813.811142.3248574185800.348.899.23TT-17.856-60.85666413.531853630558.8558621060030.0049092337237758161112123WETL